The New England Patriots have been winning with good situational football, however their offense lacks the kind of big-play threatthat can capitalize against a Steelers defense that is awesome, yet susceptible to giving up the big play. New England has a young defense and was exploited by Peyton Hillis last week for 184 rushing yards and two scores in the 34-14 loss at Cleveland. When Ben Roethlisberger was around, the Steelers had success against the talented Bill Belichick defenses , averaging 25.4 PPG in the past five NFL games. New England got a scare this week as quarterback Tom Brady missed Wednesday’s practice due to a sprained foot, but he is expected to be the starter on Sunday.

The Patriots have lost back-to-back NFL games only twice since 2003. In 21 games following an in-season loss, Brady has done an outstanding job, completing 67 percent of his passes and throwing for 42 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions. This equates to a gaudy 105.4 passer rating. Brady has also dominated the Steelers in six career games with five wins, 11 touchdowns and just three interceptions. But Brady has lost some of his luster without Randy Moss, throwing for only five touchdowns in four games. The team put up 32.8 PPG with Moss and is averaging a mere 22.0 PPG after he was traded. Brady should be able to throw the football on Pittsburgh again, considering the Steelers have allowed 273 passing YPG this year. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski was placed on injured reserve this week with a quad problem, so New England replaced him with Shayne Graham who has made over 85 percent of his FG attempts in his career.

The Steelers continue to lead the NFL in scoring defense (15.4 PPG) and run defense (58.3 YPG). But, on the other side of the ball, their offensive line is beat up with OT Max Starks out this week due to a neck injury. Other football players suffering from different injuries are rookie center Maurkice Pouncey and G Chris Kemoeatu, however both expect to play Sunday night. Pittsburgh must be more careful with the football based on its six turnovers in the past three NFL games.

The Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last eight trips to Pittsburgh. Oddsmakers think New England will cover the point spread:

Play On – Road teams (NEW ENGLAND) – off a road loss, in November games. (41-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.8%, +28.9 units. Rating = 4*).

Bill Belichick is 29-9 ATS (76.3%, +19.1 Units) after having won 4 out of their last 5 games as the coach of NEW ENGLAND. The average score was NEW ENGLAND 24.9, OPPONENT 16.3 – (Rating = 4*).

Belichick is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in road games after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games as the coach of NEW ENGLAND. The average score was NEW ENGLAND 29.7, OPPONENT 17.3 – (Rating = 4*).

If you’re going for this NFL game, take the Over:

NY GIANTS are 14-3 OVER (82.4%, +10.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NY GIANTS 27.2, OPPONENT 25.9 – (Rating = 3*).

article by youwager.com