Penn State vs. Ohio State Basketball Free Pick

Tonight at 8:00 pm EST the Big Ten has an interesting matchup. #8 Ohio State travels to Happy Valley to take on the Nittany Lions of Penn State. In football this would be a huge marquee game. This matchup, this late in the season is as close as this sport can get to the excitement of the football atmosphere. Both teams really need and want this game.

The spread was issued at PICK and the total 139.5 points. Since then the line has moved to Penn State -1.5 and the total has come down to 137.5 points. Yet, sportsbooks report 62% of the betting public is on Ohio State.

Ohio State gets the boost of having Kam Williams back from a three game suspension. He is a great 3 point shooter and they will need all the help they can get in this hostile environment. The Buckeyes are 22-5 straight up. They are only 11-14 against the spread. They score 77 and allow 66 PPG.

Penn State is 18-9 SU and 12-10-1 ATS. They are entering a challenging final stretch of their regular season schedule. They have to play No. 8 Ohio State, No. 4 Purdue, No. 22 Michigan and Nebraska to finish the year. They score 76 PPG and allow 66. You can see the scoring numbers are very similar to Ohio State’s.

So why is Penn State favored over a ranked team with a better record? On January 25th Penn State beat Ohio State on a last shot banked 3 point FG. Penn State shot for a school record 78.6% from downtown. You can beat any team in the country with stats like those.

Ohio State is on a four game win streak. Penn State is on a three game win streak. Here are some other pertinent trends and stats:

Ohio State is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Ohio State’s last 9 games
Ohio State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road

Penn State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Penn State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Penn State’s last 12 games
Penn State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

So what you have here are some trends that are tough to get a bead on. They conflict. For every streak there is an opposite streak by the other team. This pick will not be decided by trends.

I will have to use my gut instinct when picking this game. My gut instinct is as follows. This will be a close game. The game will come down to the final possession. Ohio State will be leading with under a minute left. Penn State will score the go ahead winning bucket and pull off the win. So what does that mean for bettors? I think in a situation like this the smart play is to bet the Penn State moneyline -120. I think that Penn State is playing really good basketball right now and the home court is the advantage they need to get the win.