NFL Week 9 Opening Lines – Analysis & Early Picks
Scott Morris | November 3, 2020
There is a lot of hub bub on every betting site today about the Presidential election. We say F that. Let’s stick to sports. In this article we are going to go over what the opening NFL lines are and we are going to post the lines that we came up with before the actual lines were posted. Then compare the two and try to extrapolate a few picks from it.
In the table below we are listing the opening line, the lines that we independently generated in the office and then discuss if there is a pick to be made.
Check out the table below and then below that you can see a list of early leans based on the results of the information table:
| Game | Official Line | Our Line | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF vs GB | GB -5 | GB -14* | YES |
| BUF vs SEA | SEA -2.5 | BUF Pick | YES |
| ATL vs DEN | ATL -4 | ATL -4.5 | NO |
| TEN vs CHI | TEN -5.5 | TEN -5.5 | NO |
| MIN vs DET | MIN -4 | MIN -3 | NO |
| IND vs BAL | BAL -3 | BAL -3 | NO |
| KC vs CAR | KC -10.5 | KC -13 | YES |
| JAX vs HOU | HOU -6.5 | HOU -4.5 | YES |
| WAS vs NYG | WAS -3 | NYG -3 | YES |
| LAC vs LVR | LAC -1.5 | LVR -3.5 | YES |
| DAL vs PIT | PIT -14.5 | PIT -15 | NO |
| ARZ vs MIA | ARZ -4.5 | ARZ -6.5 | YES |
| TB vs NO | TB -5.5 | TB -3 | YES |
| NYJ vs NE | NE -7 | NE -10 | YES |
Leans Based on Above Info:
- Green Bay -5*
- Buffalo +2.5
- KC -10.5
- JAX +6.5 (Buy the point to make it +7.5)
- LVR +1.5
- ARZ -4.5
- NO +5.5
- NE -7
Analysis:
*SF vs GB: The 49ers are without starting QB Jimmy Garappolo and stud TE George Kittle. The Packers have issues of their own. Their RB AJ Dillon tested positive for Corona and will be out. There may be other players who will test positive between now and Thursday. But one thing is for sure, SF’s starting QB and all-star TE are definitely out. Packers still looking good as of right now. Note: We did not know about the Covid tests before we chose our 14 point line. I would still hang a 7 or 8 on it.
BUF vs SEA: Buffalo is at home, getting points for the first time in ages and they will be looking to get this important win to prove they are for real. If Russel Wilson doesn’t have a perfect day, the Seahawks lose. I am betting against a perfect day.
KC vs CAR: KC is a beast. Carolina has been playing inspired ball but traveling across the country and trying to hang with the defending SB champions will be much too much for the upstart Panthers.
JAX vs HOU: I loathe putting money on Jax. But the line here seems a bit big. If you take Jax this week you are betting on a team that is at home (where they beat Indy), who is getting a TD+ (buy the point), against a team that has the same identical win/loss record (and is pretty bad). Seems like a solid wager.
LAC vs LVR: The Raiders are solid. The Chargers are not. Enough said.
ARZ vs MIA: Miami is starting a QB who still has his training wheels on. Arizona’s offense is too good to be stifled by the Miami D (like the Rams just were). Miami has a few question marks. Arizona really doesn’t.
NYJ vs NE: Cam Newton and his Patriots are struggling big-time. What better way to start a come-back trail than to beat up on the worst team in the league (and its not even close).
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