Biggest Surprises of 2025 MLB Season So Far

The 2025 MLB season is just about one month old. Like every new season, it takes a while to get acclimated. That is true for players just as it is for fans and baseball bettors. 

The New York Yankees, not surprisingly, are one of the top-scoring teams in MLB. The defending World Series champion Dodgers – no surprise – are in the top 10. Both teams appear to be headed in the right direction toward the postseason. While the Dodgers and Yankees offer no surprises, we take a look at a few teams that have surprised us thus far. 

Feeling Minnesota

Two years ago, the Twins were “looking California,” but this year, they are definitely “feeling Minnesota.” Remember when the Twins won the AL Central in 2023? Then, they were 17 games above .500 last year but wound up 82-80 and out of the playoff picture. Just when you thought the Twins were going to take off in 2025, they were just 9-15 through 24 games, four games ahead of the worst team in baseball, the Chicago White Sox.

Heading into 2025, Minnesota had as high as a 36.2 percent chance to win the division, according to one publication. That number is now down to a little over 14 percent. The nine-figure salary duo of Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa is hitting a combined .165 with just two home runs. 

It’s early. We’ve only played a month of the 2025 MLB season, but most would have thought Minnesota would be contending for the division lead right now. They’re not and if Buxton and Correa can’t fix things, the Twins are headed for disaster in 2025.

O’s No!

Baltimore surely remembers two years ago as well. The Orioles won 101 games and looked to be set to dominate the AL East for the next several seasons. They regressed to 91 wins last year but did make the postseason. 

Somehow, they let their best pitcher, Corbin Burnes, leave in the offseason. Plus, they failed to sign extensions for studs like Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson. Maybe that’s why they’re hitting .214 and .212 so far this season. Both have an OPS under .700.

The O’s were 9-14 after 23 games and in last place in the AL East. The pitching staff is now the worst in baseball. The Orioles have a league-worst 5.58 ERA. Guys like the aging Charlie Morton and Dean Kremer have ERAs that begin with 10 and 6. Morton’s ERA is a ridiculous 10.89 after just five starts.

What $500 Million Buys

It was one of the biggest stories of the MLB offseason. The Blue Jays gave Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a 14-year, $500 million contract extension. In his previous four seasons, Guerrero hit at least 26 home runs and drove in at least 94. Last year, he hit 30 dingers with 103 RBI while batting a career-best .323.

So what does a giant new contract buy you? Well, let’s say you had Guerrero, George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Anthony Santander. Which one of those would you say is leading the Blue Jays in home runs in 2025?

The correct answer is none. That honor belongs to Toronto 2B Anders Gimenez. He has three home runs. Collectively, Toronto has 13, just one more than the worst home run hitting team in MLB – Kansas City.

Giants Killers

The NL West is loaded once again, but did anyone see this coming from the San Francisco Giants? After 25 games, the Giants were 16-9. They have a +27 run differential and they’re second in the division behind the … wait for it … San Diego Padres!

Yes, San Diego made this list too, but first a look at the Giants. They rank sixth in MLB in scoring, averaging 4.92 runs per game. One has to wonder if what the Giants have done so far is sustainable over the 162-game season. 

San Francisco is just 20th in team batting average (.231), 15th in slugging percentage (.391) and 18th in team OPS (.703). Jung Hoo Lee is batting .333 with a .969 OPS. He ranks in the top 15 in MLB in both categories. Wilmer Flores is in the top 10 in homers (7). 

Even more interesting is the Giants pitching. Logan Webb is outstanding. He’s 3-1 and has a 1.98 ERA. He’s averaging 10.9 K/9 and he is the ace of this staff. The rest of the Giants starters? Their combined ERA is 5.12 and there are two former Cy Young winners in there. 

Justin Verlander sports a 5.47 ERA. Robbie Ray, the other former Cy Young winner, is 3-0, but his ERA is 4.07. All four have ERAs above 4.00. While their performance isn’t likely sustainable, the Giants have surely opened some eyes early in 2025.

The Biggest Surprise of All

What’s not a surprise is that the best record in baseball belongs to a team from the NL West. The surprise is that it is not the Los Angeles Dodgers. San Diego continues to amaze the baseball world. The Padres were 17-8 after 25 games.

They have been unstoppable at home this season. The Padres are 12-1 at Petco Park. San Diego is a top 10 team in most offensive categories, but it’s the pitching that is taking the Padres to new heights in 2025.

San Diego has a team ERA of 2.92. That ranks second in the majors. Nick Pivetta is 4-1 with a 1.20 ERA. Michael King 3-0 with a 2.57 ERA. Dylan Cease somehow gave up nine earned runs to the A’s, but in his other four starts his ERA is 3.37. 

Even better than the starting pitching rotation is the bullpen. San Diego’s bullpen continues to mow down the opposition. They’ve got 99 strikeouts and they are the only MLB team with a bullpen WHIP below 1.00. Collectively, the Padres bullpen ERA is 1.76. That may not be sustainable either, but for now that bullpen is the biggest surprise of the young 2025 MLB season.

Current MLB World Series Odds

odds from BetUS.com

Los Angeles Dodgers +260
New York Yankees +900
Atlanta Braves +1400
Philadelphia Phillies +1100
Baltimore Orioles +2500
Houston Astros +2200
San Diego Padres +2200
New York Mets +900
Texas Rangers +1600
Seattle Mariners +2500
Cleveland Guardians +4000
Chicago Cubs +2000
Arizona Diamondbacks +3000
Minnesota Twins +6000
Detroit Tigers +2200
Milwaukee Brewers +5000
Boston Red Sox +1800
Kansas City Royals +5000
Tampa Bay Rays +6000
San Francisco Giants +5000
Cincinnati Reds +7000
St. Louis Cardinals +15000
Toronto Blue Jays +5000
Pittsburgh Pirates +25000
Athletics +20000
Washington Nationals +25000
Los Angeles Angels +10000
Miami Marlins +50000
Colorado Rockies +100000
Chicago White Sox +50000