How to Win More Early Season MLB Bets

The 2025 MLB regular season is off and running. If you are looking to start out the new season making successful wagers, it pays to know exactly what you are getting yourself into. Betting baseball in April and even May is a little different than doing so in June, July, and August. The smart MLB bettors, in fact, know this.

A number of factors play a role in early season MLB wagers. The lack of a sample size is a big one and there are more. How can you set yourself up for success betting on the MLB in 2025? Having a successful April and May is a good start.

Not Enough Pitching Data

Pitching plays a huge role in handicapping MLB games. The average MLB starter will take the mound once every four to six days. In the first full month of the season, a starting pitcher will get somewhere around four to five starts. In the grand scheme of things, this just isn’t enough information for bettors to use as they handicap games. 

Evaluating a pitcher after only a few starts is difficult. A starting pitcher could get crushed in his season opening game and have a ridiculously high ERA after just a few weeks of play. Take the Dodgers Yoshinobu Yamamoto last year. Yamamoto started the Seoul Series last year when Los Angeles faced San Diego to open the 2024 season.

Yamamoto lasted just one inning. He gave up 5 earned runs which gave him a 45.00 ERA to start the season. In his next start, he pitched 5 scoreless innings, but his season ERA was still 7.50. These numbers are misleading as proven by Yamamoto’s season-ending numbers – 7-2 record and a 3.00 ERA. 

When analyzing pitchers to handicap MLB games, it helps to be able to look at the previous five starts (if not more). It’s usually May before a pitcher has five starts in a season. Later in the season, a pitcher may have also pitched against a certain team once or twice prior in the season. These luxuries don’t exist at the start of an MLB season, which is something to keep in mind as you bet on these early season games.

Fitting in With a New Team

Rosters change every year. Teams sign new free agents. Teams lose free agents. There is always at least one new player in a lineup different from the year before. Juan Soto signed with the Mets for $760 million in the offseason. He ended last season with the Yankees. A number of pitchers including Blake Snell and Yusei Kikuchi, for example, will pitch for new teams this year. 

Pitching for a new team means pitching in a new ballpark. It may mean facing different divisional opponents multiple times per season. It’s the same for position players. Hitting in a new ballpark will not be the same as it was in the old ballpark. 

Teams invest a ton of money to try and get the right mix of pitching and hitting in an effort to earn a playoff spot and get a shot at a World Series. Some free agent moves work out for the best; however, on occasion, a move might not pay off right away. It may take a player some time to adjust before he actually makes a positive impact on his new team. 

Because the MLB regular season is 162 games, managers and players may not be too concerned about their early season play. A player might struggle early in a season only to right the ship later and finish with strong numbers. Too often, public bettors believe that a so-called MLB star will simply brush off a slump and instantly become a star again. It doesn’t always work that way.

Rookies & Early Season MLB Wagers

Most true rookies never start an MLB season in the majors. Most are promoted to the big leagues later in a season and even then they still may have issues. Take Baltimore’s Jackson Holliday as an example. 

Holliday was a rookie last season and got the call to the majors in early April, just a few weeks into the new season. He struggled mightily and ended up only playing 60 games in 2024. Holliday hit just .189 and had a WAR value of just 0.1. 

Fast-forward and Holliday will be the Orioles starting second baseman in 2025. That doesn’t mean all MLB rookies will be disasters, but it does take a period of adjustment. Keep in mind that most MLB teams do not call up rookies early in a season. It’s a cost-saving measure. The longer they can keep a player from becoming eligible for arbitration, the better…from an MLB franchise cost-cutting perspective. 

This will have an effect on teams early in a season. A team with some talented players in the farm system won’t see those players until much later in the year. MLB teams may be left with some cheaper substitutes early in a new season. This, of course, is going to affect handicapping these April and May MLB games.

The New Coach Effect

This season, three MLB teams will have new managers – Cincinnati, the Chicago White Sox, and the Miami Marlins. Getting used to a new manager and their style of coaching can take time. A manager himself may not become comfortable with his new team until he gets a month or two under his belt. It typically takes a number of games before managers have a clear picture of what their teams are.

Remember, managers are responsible for the batting order, which relief pitcher to use next and a myriad of other decisions on game day. There will always be some growing pains for a new manager and his team in the early part of a new MLB season.

Betting Totals

One of the other factors that often gets overlooked is the weather. Playing baseball at the end of March or beginning of April has its challenges. The challenges are even greater in places like New York, Chicago, and Pittsburgh. The weather typically isn’t all that great in some of these areas early in a baseball season. 

MLB players might have to play in 20-degree weather early in a season. Wind is also a huge factor and winds at ballparks like Oracle Park and Wrigley Field play a big role in the outcome of games. Winds blowing out from home plate to center-field, for example, result in more Overs at Wrigley. The opposite is true when winds are blowing in from the outfield.

Be careful when betting totals in early season MLB games, especially those games played in cold-weather climates. Cold will affect players and their performance as well as the flight of any batted balls. Remember, cold air is denser than warm air which means there is more resistance on the ball than in the warmer months of the season. That will definitely impact anyone betting MLB totals early in a season.

2025 World Series Champion Odds Season Start

found at BetOnline.ag

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