Win Your NCAA Tournament Bracket Office Pool

It will be here soon. The madness has already begun as the college basketball calendar has flipped to March. The Atlantic-Sun Conference tournament is underway and several more will begin this week. 

Selection Sunday, March 16, is less than two weeks away. The First Four gets underway in Dayton, Ohio, on March 18-19. Then, the first weekend of the 2025 NCAA tournament kicks off with the least productive work days of the year beginning on Thursday, March 20.

If you are one of the millions that will fill out a March Madness bracket for your office pool, don’t worry. Your secret is safe with us. But, if you want to give yourself a better chance of actually winning something, use the following tips as a guide. Before you send off your bracket and your hard-earned entry fee, give this a look.

Start with the Final Four

Go to the Final Four picks, then work backwards. There’s a good reason why. For one, you will be less likely to stare at your bracket and dream up first-round upsets. We love the NCAA tournament because of the Cinderellas. Those mid-major teams that just don’t stand a chance against teams from the Big Ten, SEC, or ACC seem to always find a way to pull off some big surprises. 

How about last year when No. 14 Oakland University upset No. 3 Kentucky? Yale, a No. 13 seed upset No. 4 Auburn and No. 12 Grand Canyon beat No. 5 Saint Mary’s. Don’t forget 11th-seeded Duquesne who beat No. 3 Illinois or No. 11 NC State which beat Texas Tech.

If you picked any of these upsets last year, congratulations, but in the grand scheme of things those picks don’t mean much. The way that bracket contests are scored, first-round wins are rewarded with just one point. Picking the correct national champion will net you 32 points. Semifinal wins get 16 points. You get more points for correct picks at the end of the tournament. That’s why we start at the end.

Bracket Scoring & First Round Upsets

Most NCAA tournament bracket contests use the same scoring. If you correctly pick a first-round winner, you get one point. Correct second-round picks will earn two points each and a Sweet Sixteen winner gets you four. You can see the pattern. You earn double the amount of points from the round before – 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, and 32. 

Most players that fill out a bracket can earn more points by picking just one Elite Eight team to win than by picking correctly all of the upsets in Round 1. In any given tournament, the average number of upsets is 12. That’s for the entire tournament. Obviously, there are more upsets in Round 1 since there are more games.

The First Round average number of upsets since the NCAA tournament field expanded in 1985 is six. In each successive round, that number is typically cut in half. The average number of Second Round upsets is three and so on. It helps also to understand that a win is considered an upset if the winning team is seeded at least two seeds lower than its opponent. A No. 7 seed defeating a No. 10 would be considered an upset, but a No. 9 defeating a No. 8 is not. 

Your Final Four

As mentioned, everyone loves the Cinderella story. There have been plenty of them throughout the years in the NCAA tournament. The thing is, most teams seeded lower than No. 6 do not make it that far in March Madness. 

The lowest seed to ever win a national championship was No. 8 Villanova in 1985. That was the year that the NCAA expanded the tournament to 64 teams and also the first time seeding was introduced. In 2014, UConn won the national title as a No. 7 seed. Since then, seven No. 1 seeds and one No. 2 have won the national championship. UConn won another championship in 2023 as a No. 4 seed.

In the last 38 NCAA tournaments, there have been just 17 occasions when a seed lower than No. 6 has advanced to a Final Four. Last year it was NC State. The Wolfpack entered the NCAA tourney as a No. 11 seed and wound up winning four games to advance to the Final Four. In 2023, it was FAU advancing as a No. 9 seed. 

The key point is this. More often than not, it is likely that one of the top four seeds in a given region will advance to the Final Four. The other 12 teams in a region are much less likely to reach the Final Four. That is why you start at the end of your bracket and work backward.

Don’t Pick Too Many Upsets

We love the upsets, but keep in mind that at an average of 12 per tournament that represents only 19 percent of the 63 games that make up March Madness. You have to be careful in choosing which teams will pull an upset. Choosing random upsets can easily destroy any bracket.

Only two No. 1 seeds have ever lost in the first round and both of those happened within the last decade. Only 11 No. 2 seeds have lost a first-round game. Last year all four No. 2 seeds won their first-round game. In the previous three tournaments, at least one No. 2 seed was upset in Round 1.

The first-round matchup that produces the most upsets is the game between the No. 7 seed and the No. 10 seed. Sixty-two No. 10 seeds have their first game since 1985. Last year, Colorado actually won a play-in game then won its first-round game as well. In the 2019 tournament, three No. 10 seeds – Iowa, Florida, and Minnesota – all won in the first round.

A No. 10 seed is typically one of the best – if not the best – teams in a mid-major conference. If not, then a No. 10 seed is usually a Power conference team that is talented but took its lumps in a very tough conference. Think about teams like Baylor, which is currently listed at No. 10 seed in the latest Bracketology. The Bears are just four years removed from winning a national championship, but they are 9-9 in the Big 12 and 17-12 overall. 

Advancing Through the Bracket

Remember, the number of upsets decreases round by round as the tournament progresses. If you pick six upsets in the first round, you should choose no more than three in the second round. 

It’s worth noting that the No. 6 seed has beaten the No. 3 seed 31 times since 1985. Clemson advanced to the Sweet Sixteen with a win last year as a No. 6 seed. Creighton did it the year before. Ironically, both teams beat Baylor, a No. 3 seed in the 2023 and 2024 tournaments. 

In second round play, the No. 7 seed has defeated the No. 2 seed 27 times. Historically, at least one No. 2 and one No. 3 are both going to lose in the second round. The job for the bracket player then is determining which ones. Last year as mentioned, Baylor was a No. 3 seed that lost in the second round. No. 3 Kentucky was upset by No. 14 Oakland in last year’s first round.

Hopefully, these tips can help you in your quest to win your office bracket pool.

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