How to Bet the NBA After the All-Star Break

Smart sports bettors understand that betting on the NBA changes a little after the All-Star break. NBA fans, of course, were treated to their first taste of a four-team All-Star tournament. Three teams of eight NBA-All Stars plus the winning team from the NBA’s Rising Stars event played in a single-elimination tournament.

The teams were named for NBA legends and current TNT analysts Charles Barkley (Chuck’s Global Stars), Shaquille O’Neal (Shaq’s OGs), and Kenny Young (Kenny’s Young Stars). The fourth team was named for WNBA legend and TNT analyst Candace Parker (Candace’s Rising Stars). In the end, Shaq’s OGs would win it all as fans were treated to about 45 minutes of basketball over the course of three hours.

With All-Star weekend behind us, now it’s time to take advantage of the second half of the NBA season. Teams have played between 52 and 56 games of the 82-game NBA schedule. Betting these last 26 to 30 games is still all about finding value. However, the dynamics involved in finding that value may have changed. Here’s what you need to consider as you bet the rest of the NBA season.

The Trade Deadline

The NBA trade deadline was February 6 and fans got to see one of the most important trades in all of sports’ history. Luka Doncic was traded from Dallas to the Los Angeles Lakers in exchange for Anthony Davis. There were a few other pieces involved and another team (Utah), but Doncic and Davis were the key pieces.

Doncic in LA makes the Lakers a serious contender, especially since they won 10 of the final 12 games before the All-Star break. They won the majority of those without Doncic who was sidelined with an injury until Feb. 10 and has only played in two games for Los Angeles.

Davis becomes an integral part of the Dallas equation, but the Mavs will have to wait. Davis was injured in his first game as a Maverick. He left the game in the third quarter after putting up 26 points, 16 rebounds, and three blocks. Davis will be out roughly a month before he is ready to return. That will affect how bettors handicap the Mavs. 

Injuries Cont.

Davis’ injury is huge for Dallas. The Mavs are currently eighth in the Western Conference standings. Not having Davis will definitely hurt, but Dallas will also be without C Daniel Gafford. He’s out with an MCL sprain and will miss at least six weeks. Gafford is averaging 12.3 points and 6.9 rebounds per game for Dallas. 7-footer Dereck Lively II is also out with an ankle injury. The Mavs have some issues that bettors will need to consider when betting on them. 

Betting on Milwaukee will take some research as well. Giannis Antetokounmpo missed four games before the All-Star break and did not take part in the All-Star tournament. He was held out due to soreness in his left calf. It is still not clear as to when the Bucks star will return. Milwaukee is 6-6 SU without Giannis this season and they have lost five of the last eight without him.

Handicapping teams with star players injured can be difficult? Does the team have enough depth to make up for the loss? Does the absence of such a star player change the way a team plays? Sometimes, a team’s tempo will change with a certain player out of the lineup. These are all things to watch for as you bet the NBA down the home stretch.

In or Out?

You have a pretty clear idea of which teams are making the postseason and which ones are not after the All-Star break. The Washington Wizards, for example, have just nine wins this season. They are 9-45. Now, how does that affect their play? 

There’s no question the Wizards will be a draft lottery team. Last year, they picked second and selected Alex Sarr who averages 11.4 points per game this season. If the Wizards wind up with the first pick, they would likely be able to select Duke’s Cooper Flagg, arguably the best college player in the nation. 

Should the Wizards tank the rest of the season and increase the likelihood that they will receive the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft? The Wizards did pick up former Milwaukee veteran Khris Middleton in a trade before the deadline. Will that have an impact on how Washington plays the rest of the season? 

It goes the other way too. A team like Cleveland or Boston is assured a playoff spot even if disaster strikes. The Cavaliers already have 44 wins. Last season, sixth-place in the Eastern Conference had 47 wins and the final two teams that made the play-in tournament had 36 and 39 victories. 

Pay attention to lineups. Teams like Boston and Cleveland could easily have some of their studs take a night off here and there to rest up for the playoff run.

The Coach Factor

The Miami Heat are three games under .500 and in ninth place in the Eastern Conference standings. The Heat just traded away Jimmy Butler to Golden State, which is probably a good thing. Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra doesn’t have to deal with the Butler distraction anymore. Plus, the guy has won nine division titles and two NBA championships.

Other teams will have coaches that are treading on thin ice. That typically puts a team in limbo not knowing if their head coach is going to make it through the season. Utah’s Will Hardy and New Orleans Willie Green are sitting at the top of the Next NBA Coach to Be Fired Odds board. Will the Jazz or Pelicans play harder/better in an effort to keep their head coach? 

One interesting situation this season is what happened in Sacramento. The Kings decided to move on From Mike Brown. On Dec. 27, the Kings fired Brown and Sacramento has been pretty good ever since. Doug Christie took over as the interim head coach and the Kings are 14-8 since the beginning of January. Sacramento has moved into ninth place in the Western Conference playoff race. 

Whether it’s coaching, injuries, or depth, understanding how these dynamics affect each team can really help you in making sound betting decisions on NBA games throughout the rest of the regular season.