Philadelphia Eagles-Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl LIX Free Picks

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs (KC -1.5, 48.5 )

Sunday, February 9, 6:30 PM ET

Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA 

It all comes down to this. For the third consecutive season, the Kansas City Chiefs will represent the AFC and they match up with a familiar opponent. The Philadelphia Eagles beat the Washington Commanders 55-23 in the NFC title game to advance to the big game for the second time in three years. Just two years ago, the Chiefs rallied from a 10-point halftime deficit and won Super Bowl LVII, 38-35.

The line on the game opened with Kansas City a 1.5-point favorite at SportsBetting.ag. That number ticked up 2.5 with heavy early action on the Chiefs. That number has been bet back down to 1.5 in what should be an absolutely thrilling game. 

Like the point spread, the total opened at 45.5 and was almost instantly bet up as high as 49.5. It too has settled and is sitting right now at 48.5. Three of the past four Super Bowls, including last year’s Chiefs victory over San Francisco haven’t really come close to this year’s total. The only one of the four that went Over was the Eagles-Chiefs Super Bowl LVII.

With all that in mind, how should the average bettor approach betting on Super Bowl LIX? Read on and we’ll present you with a few different options to take advantage of this year’s Eagles-Chiefs clash.

Super Bowl LIX Props – Dallas Goedert Receiving Yards

The Super Bowl is where prop bets got their start. It’s a huge market now and there will be tons of action, but you can find some strong value in a couple spots. One is the receiving yards market. Philly TE Dallas Goedert is really Jalen Hurts’ top target. 

Goedert missed some time during the regular season and only played in 10 games. In those 10, he went Over 49.5 receiving yards just four times. However, he’s gone Over that number in each of the last two playoff games and he just missed with 47 yards in the wild card game. 

Philly’s passing game comes down to RPOs and play action off of Saquon Barkley runs. The easiest routes to find and throw are those in the intermediate zones…ones that are high-target areas for tight ends and running backs. 

You can still find Goedert at 49.5 at a number of sportsbooks. It has ticked upward at FanDuel where you can still get Goedert at 50+ receiving yards at -135. 

Super Bowl LIX Props – Kareem Hunt Rushing Yards

Hunt has really saved the Chiefs ground game this season. Kansas City’s offense hasn’t been the juggernaut of year’s past. The Chiefs were just 12th in the NFL in scoring this season, averaging 23.2 points per game. Just two years ago when KC played Philly in Super Bowl LVII, the Chiefs led the NFL in scoring with 29.2 points per game. 

Isaiah Pacheco was supposed to be the Chiefs’ guy this year, but when he returned from a broken leg he just didn’t get it done. Hunt came on to rush for 728 yards in the regular season and 108 more in two playoff games. 

His Super Bowl rushing yards prop is set at 42.5. He’s gone Over that in both playoff games and in 4 of his last 5 overall. For the season, Hunt surpassed this number in 11 of 15 games. In the regular season, Hunt averaged 56 yards rushing per game, 54 in the postseason. He should get the majority of KC’s carries on Sunday and get Over this number.

Super Bowl LIX Props – Anytime TD Scorers

This is a popular market and two guys stand out – Barkley and Hurts. If you like, you can throw Travis Kelce in there along with Hunt and Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes. Philadelphia finished sixth in the NFL in scoring, averaging 28.4 points per game. That’s four touchdowns per game, which is one reason to lean on the Eagles’ guys.

Remember, in the Anytime TD market, it’s the player that crosses the goal line that gets credit for the score. That means quarterback touchdown passes do not count. That’s another reason to lean on Hurts. When the Eagles get close to the end zone, they often employ their “Tush Push” QB sneak. As a result, Hurts has a total of 18 rushing touchdowns this season – four in the postseason and 14 in the regular season. 

Barkley ran for 13 touchdowns in the regular season and has five more in the playoffs for 18 total. In eight of the 19 games he played, Barkley has multiple touchdowns, which is another market in this category.

Bettors can go with Barkley at -190 to score anytime and Hurts is listed at -110. Bettors can also place an either/or bet on Barkley or Hurts to score an Anytime TD with the Yes wager priced at -600. Hunt is given +140 odds and Kelce is listed at +135 at BetOnline.ag.

Super Bowl LIX Same Game Parlay

The parlay, or more specifically, the same game parlay has become another popular bet. In Super Bowl LIX, it’s worth noting that the point spread opened at 1.5, ticked upward one point, and then settled back at Kansas City -1.5. 

For all intents and purposes, this should be a pretty tight game. With a spread at -1.5, there has to be some value on the underdog. That’s why you should bet the six-point NFL teaser here. Bettors can move the spread up +7.5 for Philly, clearing the key numbers of 3, 4, 6, and 7. 

The six-point teaser also allows the bettor to manipulate the total. Applying the teaser to the total, bettors can take it down to 42.5 and bet the Over. In a game where the books suggested a pretty high-scoring affair, betting the Over at 42.5 has its advantages. While you don’t get under the key number of 41, you do open up the opportunity for key numbers like 43, 44, and 47.

There you have it. In a game with such a tight spread, it can often be difficult to pick a side. Many will say “you can’t bet against the Chiefs.” Others will see the underdog as the clear choice. We see it a little differently and find more value in the props and parlay markets. Best of luck!