How to Bet on the Super Bowl Champion

Another couple billion dollars will be wagered on Super Bowl 59. Many of those bets are in already. What bettors would love more than anything is to find that their bet (or bets) on the Super Bowl cashed. So, what if there was a way to predict the Super Bowl winner?

Now, you can’t just blindly bet on a team to win the Super Bowl. Of course, there are many that will swear you just can’t bet against the Chiefs. Well, why not? For those that love underdogs, a blind bet on the Eagles isn’t wise either. How about a numerical approach to betting the Super Bowl?

Super Bowl Betting Prep

The big challenge when betting on the Super Bowl winner is the amount of public betting. The average Joe will place more bets, sometimes large ones, on big games like Super Bowl LIX. It’s to be expected since it will be the most-watched sporting event of the year.

Public betting can often inflate betting lines. It typically makes sense to place Super Bowl bets on the point spread right at the opening when the public has not had enough time to influence sportsbooks. Of course, the action will be intense and the books love it as they take in millions and millions of dollars on the big game. The question for bettors then is how to cash out some of those millions and walk away a winner.

The Numerical Approach to Betting Super Bowl LIX

One of the easiest ways to bet the Super Bowl champion with confidence is to use a straightforward comparison of the two teams. This involves a list of statistical (and other) categories. The categories are ones that have been associated with Super Bowl winners.

A point value is assigned in each category. The bettor analyzes both teams and keeps a running list of total points. In the end, bettors would choose the team that has more points. Pretty simple, right? Here’s how it works.

How to Bet the Super Bowl Champion

The analysis is pretty simple. Make two columns. One is for the AFC champion and the other for the NFC winner. Keep a running total of the points in each category. The first seven categories are the most important and they usually reveal the Super Bowl winner.

It all starts with recent Super Bowl performances. If either team has won it all in the previous three seasons, give the team 10 points. Teams that have won recently have an advantage as they have won the Super Bowl before. Kansas City, of course, has won each of the last two Super Bowls and would earn the 10 points in this category.

If one of the teams is playing in its first-ever Super Bowl, give the opponent eight points. Most teams playing in their first Super Bowl do not play that well. The only modern-day team that has really excelled in its first Super Bowl was Tampa Bay back in 2002. The Eagles and Chiefs have both been to the big game recently and, in fact, played each other not last year, but the year before.

Eight points is then given to the team that faced the fewer number of runs during the regular season. This is because the NFL is a passing league. Teams that faced more pass plays during the regular season may be more proficient in defending the pass. Teams that defend the pass better typically win more games. Philadelphia finished second in the NFL this season in passing yards allowed per game.

We award five points to the team with the better opponent yards-per-carry average. Even though defending the pass is a huge deal, run defense is still respected. Teams that stop the run usually win more often. 

If one team scored more kick and punt return touchdowns than the other, they get four points. You will also get four points for the better ATS record. Finally, we add four points to the team with the fewest penalty yards during the season.

These seven categories can usually predict the Super Bowl winner. However, you may need to add a few more to get a clearer picture of which team will win.

The Super Bowl Winner Coming into Focus

If the first seven categories don’t do it for you, there are four more you can add to get a clearer picture of the Super Bowl winner. The team with the higher yards per pass attempt gets 3.5 points. This should make sense. It’s a passing league, remember!

Then, add another 3.5 points for the team whose defense gave up the fewest points overall. Defense still wins championships and you have to be able to come up with stops at key points in games. Teams that give up fewer points per game usually do so.

You can also add three points for the team that gave up fewer rushing touchdowns. You could substitute the fewest rushing yards allowed here as well. Either one is a pretty strong indicator of success. Another is adding three points for the team with the most sacks. In a passing league, teams that sack the quarterback a lot are usually strong on defense and win more games.

Finally, add one point each for the following: 

• Team with the higher completion percentage
• Team that punted less often
• Team with the better rushing per carry average
• Team that saw fewer pass attempts

Example of Betting the Super Bowl Champion

Let’s take the 2015 Super Bowl and use it as an example. New England played Seattle and, if you recall, the Patriots would end up winning the game on what many still say was a poor play call by the Seahawks. The game came down to the final play and Seattle was stopped inside the five-yard line.

Using our numerical approach to the Super Bowl, the Patriots had a 23-22 advantage using the first seven categories. Both teams had been in Super Bowls in the previous three seasons. That made the numbers very close. 

By adding in the final four categories that we discussed above, the Patriots still had a 32-30 advantage. That means, if you followed the numbers, you’d have placed a bet on New England to win and even New England to cover, since the Patriots were two-point favorites. As it turned out, the numerical approach was spot on. New England won the game 28-24.

Final Note

There are other numerical approaches to betting on the Super Bowl. This one appeals to many because it is simple and it works. It produces a number (or numbers) that anyone can use and interpret before making a betting decision. 

The statistics used on this list were chosen because of their significance in determining winners of NFL games. Teams that perform well in those categories typically win more games than they lose. It’s an effective and efficient way to bet on this year’s Super Bowl winner.