Buffalo Bills-Kansas City Chiefs AFC Championship Free Picks

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -2, 47.5)

Sunday, January 26, 6:30 PM ET

Arrowhead Stadium

Can the Buffalo Bills stop Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs? It appears that oddsmakers don’t think so as they installed Kansas City as a two-point favorite in Sunday’s AFC Championship game. The Chiefs have won each of the last two AFC title games as well as the last two Super Bowls. They got back here after going 15-2 in the regular season. They only lost the second because it was Week 18 and their starters didn’t play against Denver.

After underdogs went 4-0 ATS last week, bettors looking to jump on the Buffalo Bills might want to think twice. Over the last five seasons, Kansas City is 15-2 SU in the playoffs. All 15 of those wins have been by more than three points. 

There are Chiefs’ skeptics as well. Many believe the Chiefs didn’t play well during the regular season. The offense was a rather pedestrian 15th in scoring offense, averaging 22.7 points per game. As a result, Kansas City only covered the spread in seven of their 17 regular season games. The Chiefs didn’t cover last week as 9.5-point favorites against Houston in the divisional round. Kansas City won 23-14.

There will be many that will bring up Buffalo’s success against the Chiefs over the past several seasons. In the last four seasons, the Bills and Chiefs have played six times. Buffalo has won four of those six games. But, did they win when it really mattered?

Kansas City’s two wins over the Bills came in the playoffs. One of those was last year. KC won 27-24 in Buffalo in the divisional round to advance to the AFC championship game. The two teams did meet in the 2020 season’s AFC title game. That game was played in Kansas City and was won by the Chiefs. The Chiefs would go on to lose to Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31-9.

Regardless of what you think about the Chiefs, they did win all but two of their regular season games. They did it with a defense that is outstanding. Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spanuolo led a defense that finished third in points allowed – 18.9 – this season. The Chiefs held a Houston offense that put up 32 on the regular season leader in points allowed, the Los Angeles Chargers, to just 14 points. 

Buffalo started the 2024 season with three straight wins, but they were left for dead after they got blown out by Baltimore and then lost to Houston the very next week. The Bills then ripped off seven straight wins led by NFL MVP candidate Josh Allen who threw for 3,731 yards and 28 TDs in the regular season. He’s got another 14 scores on the ground, two of which came last week in the revenge win over the Ravens in the divisional round. 

The Bills had an impressive win over the Detroit Lions in Week 15, winning 48-42 at Ford Field in Detroit. Allen threw for 362 yards and two touchdowns and ran for another 68 yards and two more scores. The Bills defense has given up a few more points than in year’s past, but they still ranked eighth in the NFL Buffalo allowed 21.1 points per game this season.

Both defenses are outstanding and both quarterbacks are MVP caliber. The Chiefs are at home and appear to have the edge. But do they? Where is the value in this AFC championship game?

Finding Value

There is something to be said of the playoff Kansas City Chiefs compared to the regular season version. In the last five years, Mahomes and KC have played Buffalo in the postseason three times. The Chiefs won all three and covered by 6.7 PPG in all three games. The Over also went 3-0, by the way.

Buffalo won in a revenge spot last week when they beat Baltimore. They had lost to the Ravens earlier in the season. Kansas City also thrives in these revenge spots. The Chiefs lost to the Bills 30-21 in Week 11. Since 2019, KC is 24-7 SU after losing the previous meeting against an opponent. When the revenge game has been played at Arrowhead, the Chiefs are 13-4 SU.

It’s worth noting that favorites in night games this season have had the upper hand. Night game favorites in the 2024 regular season went 47-12 SU. That’s the best record since 1971. It’s also worth noting that night favorites in the playoffs are just 1-4 SU so far this season. 

One area worth mentioning is an area that really supports the Chiefs and their ability to win. Second-half Unders in Chiefs’ games over the last two seasons are 29-10. That’s a 74 percent win rate. Those second-half totals go Under by an average of 4.8 points per game. With Mahomes as the starting QB at home, the second-half Under is 41-26-3. That’s the second-best mark for a quarterback (Philip Rivers) over the last 20 years.

One player prop really stands out in this game. That’s for Bills TE Dalton Kincaid. The Chiefs play great defense, as we’ve mentioned, but they do allow the most receiving yards to tight ends in the NFL. The Chiefs allow 70 yards per game to opposing tight ends. Houston’s Dalton Schultz had 63 yards last week, his highest total in 10 weeks. 

Kincaid’s receiving yards prop can be found as low as 32.5. He’s gone Over that in seven of 15 games this season. He did not hit the number last week but did so in the wild card round against Denver. In big games, Kincaid has come through. He had 47 yards against Baltimore in the regular season and 53 in the win over Detroit.

BEST BETS

• CHIEFS -1.5/CHIEFS -125 

• 2H UNDER 23.5

• DALTON KINCAID OVER 32.5 RECEIVING YARDS

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