Philadelphia Eagles-Washington Commanders NFC Championship Free Picks

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders (PHI -6, 47.5)

Sunday, January 26, 3:00 PM ET

Lincoln Financial Field

It’s the NFC Championship game. QB Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders are very familiar with their opponent, the Philadelphia Eagles. The two teams split their regular season games with the home team winning each time. The Eagles hope to win and advance to the Super Bowl for the third time in seven years. Washington is making its first appearance in the NFC championship game in 33 years. 

Daniels will likely be named the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year in a few weeks. If you’re thinking about getting into the market, you’re way too late. Odds are -10000. Daniels is playing at a level never seen from a rookie quarterback in the playoffs. He has complete command of Washington’s offense. Washington has actually scored on 11 out of 16 drives in the postseason. The Commanders have turned the ball over on downs three times and punted just once. 

Washington led the NFL in 4th-down conversion percentage, converting on 81.3 percent of all of their fourth down tries. The Commanders were successful on three of four fourth downs in Detroit. It’s kind of ironic since the Lions and their head coach Dan Campbell went for it on fourth down more than any other team in the NFL this season.

The Commanders come into the NFC championship riding a seven-game winning streak. Daniels threw for 299 yards and two touchdowns against Detroit to give him 1,522 yards and 17 scoring passes in that seven-game run. Daniels also has 422 yards on the ground during the streak and 891 along with six touchdowns for the season.

Where Washington lacks is on defense, especially against the run. Stopping Saquon Barkley is much easier said than done. Barkley eclipsed the 2,000-yard mark (2,005) during the regular season. He ran for 119 yards against Green Bay in the wild card game and went off on the Rams last week in the divisional round game. Barkley had touchdown runs of 62 and 78 yards to help Philadelphia defeat the Rams 28-22. The Eagles star finished with 205 yards on the day.

The run defense in Washington is an issue. It was against Detroit. Jahmyr Gibbs ran for 105 yards and WR Jameson Williams took a 61-yard reverse to the house. If Lions QB Jared Goff hadn’t turned the ball over four times, it could have been a different story last week.

The Commanders run defense ranks 30th in the NFL. They allow 138.9 rushing yards per game. In two games against Washington this season, Barkley has rushed for an incredible 296 yards and four touchdowns. He’s averaged 6.57 yards per carry. For comparison’s sake, the Rams ranked 28th against the run (136.9 ypg) before Barkley carved them up.

Keep in mind, Philadelphia smoked the Commanders at home. The 26-18 final score is misleading. The Eagles led 26-10 before Washington drove 70 yards and scored with 28 seconds left in the game. Before that final drive, the Commanders had 194 total yards of offense. Daniels accounted for 41 passing yards on the final drive and finished the day 22-of-32 for 191 yards. 

In the Week 16 game against the Commanders, Philly led 27-14 early in the fourth quarter. Daniels was outstanding and threw three touchdown passes in the quarter. The final one came with just six seconds remaining in the game. Washington won 36-33.

There has been some talk about Eagles QB Jalen Hurts and his health. He’s been banged up, but he continues to play and come through for Philly. Where the difference may lie is with the lines on both sides of the ball. The Eagles offensive line is dominant and the defensive line isn’t far behind. Washington right guard Sam Cosmi won’t play on Sunday and center Tyler Biadasz is not 100 percent. 

Finding Value

It sure is fun laying bets on a moneyline favorite and winning big. Once again, the public is jumping on the backs of the underdog Commanders. It’s the feel-good story of the season, but smarter bettors will beware. The Eagles are six-point favorites for a reason.

Keep in mind, the Eagles won at home against Washington this season. Philly has won six of the last eight against the Commanders at Lincoln Financial Field. The Eagles have also won their last nine home games. Ask yourself why is Philly a six-point favorite in a conference championship game?

Losing a conference championship as a +6 or higher favorite just doesn’t happen often. Since the 2002 season, favorites of +6 or higher are 13-3 SU. The losses came when quarterbacks named Brady, Rogers, and Mahomes pulled upsets.

If you’re not averse to odds of -260 to -280, you could simply back the Eagles at home. Remember, 9-0 SU at home in their last nine and they beat Washington at home this year and in six of the last eight at home. Those odds equate to a 72 to 74 percent chance of winning by Philadelphia.

It’s also worth noting that No. 6 seeds don’t fare too well in conference championship games or the Super Bowl. Since 1990, a No. 6 seed +4 or higher is 0-4 SU and ATS. And, while we’re at it, playing at Philadelphia against Hurts is no picnic. As a home favorite, Hurts is 25-3 SU and 9-2 SU in home games against NFC East opponents. Hurts has played four home playoff games in his career. He is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS. 

As far as props go, Barkley’s rushing yards prop is hovering around 124.5 right now. His rush attempts prop is at 24.5. He’s gone Over 24.5 in four straight games and since rushing for 65 yards against Pittsburgh late in the season, Barkley has cleared 124.5 yards in three of his last four games.

For Washington, TE Zach Ertz has become a major target for Daniels. He’s got at least four targets in each of the last four games and five or more catches in three of his last four. His receptions prop is set at 3.5.

BEST BETS

• EAGLES -6

• BARKLEY OVER 24.5 CARRIES

• ERTZ OVER 3.5 RECEPTIONS 

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