CFP – Is 12 Too Many?

The first round of the College Football Playoff is in the books and the comments are flying around like crazy. Four first-round games were played and fans and bettors got four double-digit blowouts. “This team didn’t belong.” “This other team should have made it.” And so on. 

It’s the same hub-bub that we heard during the BCS era and the same through the four-team CFP era that ended last year. That raises the question, “Are 12 teams in the College Football Playoff too many?”

The answer lies in what you believe because there are some issues with what exactly the CFP is trying to accomplish. Is the CFP attempting to find the “best” college football team in the country? Or, is it rewarding teams for their “body of work?” Or, is it simply a money maker for college football making it the equivalent of March Madness in college basketball?

Define Best

Go to the College Football Playoff site. If you click on “About,” you’ll see that the CFP is designed to determine a national champion on the field. You can look through the various tabs and you’ll learn that certain things matter like tradition, i.e. bowl games, as well as equal access for all 134 FBS teams. There is no mention of “best” team, but as fans and bettors, we would consider a national champion to be the best.

Best is a relative term. You need more than one to declare one the best. But, who determines what is the best? In football, there is only one way to quantify “best” and that is by wins on the football field. The best teams – and players in individual sports – are the ones that win the most. 

It would probably be safe to say then that most fans could agree that the “best” teams in college football are those that win most, if not all, of their games. There haven’t been any 7-5 teams playing for national championships, nor have there been any 10-3 teams playing for titles. We should all be able to agree to the reason why.

The Regular Season

Does the college football regular season matter? Again, most Sportsbook Advisor readers and fans of college football would agree that, yes, the regular season does matter. Ask yourself then, why is Ohio State among this year’s playoff teams? We have a quarterfinal playoff game between No. 1 Oregon and No. 8 Ohio State. Why?

Oregon already beat Ohio State during the regular season. So, does the regular season matter or does it not? The Ducks beat the Buckeyes already. Why do we have to do it again? But, the Buckeyes are deserving blah, blah. Well, we thought the CFP would determine a national champion ON THE FIELD, which, in this case, has already been done. 

We could also ask why Texas, with two losses, is among this playoff field. Both losses were to Georgia, which is the No. 2 seed. But, Texas is one of the “best” teams in college football. Okay, but they didn’t win all of their games. I know. I know. Their defense is really good, blah, blah, blah. 

Penn State lost to Ohio State. Notre Dame lost to a Group of 5 team, Northern Illinois. Arizona State lost to Texas Tech (8-4) and Cincinnati (5-7). Tennessee entered the CFP with two losses (Arkansas and Georgia). Indiana had a great season, but they played their way out of the CFP when they lost to Ohio State late in the season. Even ACC champ SMU lost to BYU during the regular season. So, if the regular season matters…

Too Many Blowouts

42-20. 44-16. 42-25. 52-24. Ah and that beauty of a national championship game in Jan. of 2023…65-7. These are scores from the 4-TEAM College Football Playoff. Ohio State beat Oregon 42-20 back in the first CFP in 2015. 

This year, we got treated to Texas over Clemson, 38-24. Ohio State pounded Tennessee 42-17. Penn State smoked SMU 38-10 and Notre Dame beat Indiana 27-17 in a game that really wasn’t even that close. 

The funny thing is that the CFP will likely expand in years to come. “Look at what they do in Division II and III” is often an argument. How about this year’s NCAA Division III semifinals? Now, this is the national semifinals. The four “best” teams in all of Division III football (there are 243 teams). In one of this year’s semifinals, North Central beat Susquehanna 66-0!

These blowouts will continue no matter how many teams are in the playoff. That’s because in a given year there are only a handful of teams that are truly elite and better than everyone else. So far this season, that team is Oregon. For those that want to argue with a bunch of metrics and stats, we remind you that only the Ducks have won all of their games this season. 

Is 12 Too Many?

So, are 12 teams too many? Yes, it is and 14 will be too many and so will 16. Ultimately, there could be a day when the FBS goes to something like FCS (24), Division II (28), or Division III (40). All of those formats have too many teams, but they will never change. 

The NCAA basketball tournament, which has had 68 teams for the past decade-plus, is now talking about expanding to 72 or 76 teams. Ask yourself a question. Does the NCAA tournament always end up with the “best” team in the nation as the winner? It’s still exciting and there’s tons of money locked up in it. Ultimately though, the College Football Playoff will become the equivalent of March Madness…with too many teams.