NCAAF Playoffs Round 2 – Penn St vs Boise St – Spread and Pick

Well, round one was a dud. No game was closer than two scores and they were all pretty much a beatdown from beginning to end. Clemson made a little bit of a run late in their game against Texas but Texas was quickly able to regain a mutli-score lead and finish them off.

The second round is guaranteed to be more exciting, well, because the bar has been set pretty low. Two of the point spreads are double digits and two are less than a field goal.

Penn State vs Boise State

• December 31st, 2024 at 7:30pm EST
• Location: State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ
• Point Spread & Total: Penn State -10.5 / 52 points
• ESPN

These two teams have never met. Penn state is 12-2 overall while Boise is 12-1. Penn State scores 33.9 PPG while allowing just 15.9 PPG. Boise scores 39.1 PPG while allowing 21.9

The major difference between these two programs is their conferences, ie., who they play every week. The Nittany Lions are in the Big Ten and play higher level competition almost every week. Boise, on the other hand, plays in the Mountain West and simply does not face the highest level of competition.

Key Wins & Losses

Boise State: UNLV x2. Yes, they beat the Running Rebels twice this year. All other opponents they defeated were mid-level to bad. However, they only lost to #1 Oregon by a FG. This is definitely food for thought.

Penn State: The Nittany Lions defeated #20 Illinois back on September 28th. They also defeated some teams that were decent but not good. They beat Wisconsin, USC, Washington and Minnesota. PSU’s two losses were to Oregon and Ohio State.

Most Intriguing Matchup Aspect: Besides the fact that these tow programs have never met, the most interesting aspect is the fact that Penn State has the 5th best defense in the nation vs the run and the 4th best overall in yards allowed (just 280 YPG allowed). Conversely, you have Boise State who ranks #5 in the nation in rushing yards per game on offense with 250 YPG. Their running back Ashton Jeanty, ran wild this year (2,497 & 7.3 YPC) and was the Heisman runner-up.

Early Lean: Boise’s only loss was to #1 Oregon by a FG. The same Oregon team that beat PSU by 8 points just two weeks ago. It’s true that Penn State has a stronger schedule but they also have two losses to show for that harder schedule. This game is taking place out west, which favors Boise State in our minds. The line should be closer to 8 points and Boise +10.5 points seems to be a little high. I’m locking in Boise +10.5 tight now. Bet this pick now at one of these sportsbooks