Favorites & Longshots – 2024-25 March Madness

UConn cut down the nets at last year’s March Madness, but it was Duke, who lost to N.C. State in the Elite Eight, which was installed as the favorite to win the 2024-25 March Madness title. Both teams are still among the favorites to win this season’s NCAA tournament. The top of the futures board includes many of the same names one would expect.

As always though, there are a number of sleepers, lesser-known college basketball programs that could sneak up and take care of business come tournament time. While UConn and Duke are expected to be among the teams making the Elite Eight and Final Four in 2024-25, schools like Oregon and Texas A&M are not. 

Let’s take a look at the favorites and the longshot candidates to win the 2024-25 March Madness. 

The New Favorite

As mentioned, Duke was the initial favorite to win the next March Madness title. That changed though as we approached the beginning of the new season. On Nov. 4, the first day of the 2024-25 college basketball season, UConn was a +860 favorite to win a third straight NCAA tournament championship. Currently, the Huskies are given +900 odds at most sportsbooks. 

UConn returns just one of its top five scorers from last year. Alex Karaban, a 6-foot-8-inch forward, is off to a strong start, averaging 18 points through the Huskies first three games. Once again, UConn ranks near the top of the KenPom rankings and they are favored to win the Big East championship again. 

The Contenders

One look at the latest KenPom rankings and you’ll find the top contenders for this year’ March Madness title. Over the last four seasons, Houston has been to four Sweet Sixteens, two Elite Eights, and one Final Four. The Cougars are right back in the hunt this season. Head coach Kelvin Sampson has built one of the best programs in the country and he’s built it with defense.

The Cougars rank No. 1 in defensive rating again this season after just three games. They have held two opponents under 50 points already. L.J. Cryer is back and he and J’Wan Roberts lead the offense scoring 12.3 points per game. Houston is listed at +1200 to win the NCAA championship.

Blueblood Kansas is a perennial favorite. The Jayhawks are off to a 3-0 start, including a win over North Carolina. Kansas returns Hunter Dickinson, who is averaging 21.3 points and 9.3 rebounds per game, and guard Dajuan Harris (9.0 ppg, 4.7 apg). Kansas is given the same odds as Houston, +1200 at SportsBetting.ag.

The other primary contender is Duke. The Blue Devils are second on the board at +950. The talk about Duke centers on their super-frosh tandem of Cooper Flagg (19.0 ppg), 9.7 rpg) and Kon Nnueppel (17.0 ppg). Duke, along with North Carolina, will be favored to win the ACC this season. 

In the Mix

Alabama made a trip to the Final Four last year behind guard Mark Sears, who averaged 21.5 points per game. The Crimson Tide are off to a 3-0 start this season and will be one of the favorites to win the SEC regular season and conference championship titles. 

Along with Alabama in the SEC, in-state rival Auburn will be another favorite in the SEC. The Tigers won last year’s conference tournament. They advanced to the second round of the NCAA tournament but were beaten by Houston. Auburn is given +1400 odds at BetUS.com to win it all this year.

Gonzaga made it to last year’s Sweet Sixteen and head coach Mark Few returns enough talent to make it even farther this year. The Bulldogs are off to a 2-0 start and have the No. 1 offensive rating in the country. Gonzaga’s odds to win March Madness are listed at +1200.

Best Longshots to Win March Madness

One of the best key indicators of success in college basketball is returning talent. Texas A&M returns 82.5 percent of its scoring from last season. Last year’s team took Houston to overtime in the second round of the NCAA tournament. All-SEC Wade Taylor IV (19.1 ppg) and SMU transfer Zhuric Phelps lead an offense that ranks in the Top 20 in offensive rating. The Aggies are listed at +7500 odds at Heritage Sportsbook to win March Madness.

Iowa State returns four double-figure scorers from last year’s team that went to the Sweet Sixteen. Head coach T.J. Otzelberger brought in two top quality transfers to add to his already deep lineup. The Cyclones (+1800) are ranked ninth in the latest KenPom rankings.

What a story this would be if Arkansas won a national title in its first season with John Calipari as head coach. Calipari is a legend who spent 15 seasons at Kentucky where he won a national title in 2012. He’ll try to do the same at Arkansas (+4500 at BetAnySports) where he brought three transfers from Kentucky (D.J. Wagner, Adou Thiero, and Zvonimir Ivisic) and imported two more from other programs. With three top-40 freshmen and an experienced roster, the Razorbacks could be the second-best team in the SEC behind Alabama.