NFL Miami at Buffalo Free Pick

That the 2-5 Miami Dolphins are second in the AFC East sort of explains all one needs to know about that quartet. Miami is off to Orchard Park to meet the division-leading 6-2 Buffalo Bills Sunday afternoon. This has been a one-sided affair of late, as the Bills have won the last five meetings (12-of-13). 

Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (28-of-38, 234 passing yards, one touchdown) returned to the Dolphins after a four-game absence with his latest concussion. Miami lost at home, 28-27, to the Arizona Cardinals, a field goal in the final second. Tagovailoa’s end-zone fumble resulted in a safety when his team was ahead by 10 points.

Now, they’ll see a Bills’ squad which has won its last three. Buffalo downed the Fish, 31-10, in the season’s second week, the exact game in which Tagovailoa was concussed.

He threw three interceptions in that contest.

Ironically, 31-10 was also the final of Buffalo’s last game, a road manhandling of the Seattle Seahawks. Buffalo had both a 100-yard rusher (James Cook) and receiver (Khalil Shakir) while compiling 445 yards of offense.

It’s the Bills as 6 point favorite (total at 49½), according to NFL odds.

Buffalo is leading this old series born in the AFL, 62-59-1 (including postseason).

McDaniel’s Seat-Warming Season

Miami coach Mike McDaniel has struggled recently, albeit without his concussion-prone leader on the field. Even the return of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa couldn’t do the trick (see above), meaning the Dolphins have minimal wiggle room during the season’s second half. 

Owner Stephen Ross was disappointed but still supportive. Coach and boss speak after every game. Ross told the media about last week’s conversation.

“(McDaniel) knows the people he’s hired he really believes in and he’s also supremely competitive,” Ross said. “ He doesn’t like to lose, but we’re definitely aligned in that it’s the process and evaluating that. He’s disappointed obviously when we don’t have (success). 

McDaniel isn’t going anywhere this season, but if the Dolphins don’t turn it around, he may well be on the hot seat come Black Monday. 

Spicin’ the Bison

It’s a matter of time before the Buffalo Bills clinch a fifth consecutive title in the AFC East, along with (probably) a sixth double-figure win season in a row.

Quarterback Josh Alen (1,766 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, one interception) threw his first pick of the season in an otherwise brilliant performance (24-of-34, 283 passing yards, two touchdowns) against the Seahawks.

At the halfway point of the season, Allen has as good an MVP resume as anyone in the league.

Buffalo averages 28.8 points/game (fifth in NFL), defense surrendered just over 18 points/game.

Continuing the Mastery

The second choice to win the AFC, Buffalo is at 4-1 (+400), while the Dolphins are an 80-1 (+8000) proposition, as per NFL conference odds.

Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa has a rough (1-7) history against the Buffalo Bills, averaging just 200 passing yards/per game (seven touchdowns, 10 interceptions, two concussions).

Even with the asterisk of a quarterback-compromised season, Miami’s last offensively at 13.9 points/game. Put into perspective, that’s half of what the Dolphins averaged last season.

Perhaps the season-high 27 points last week was a harbinger (even in a losing effort), but the team’s continued faltering in this series is something we can’t ignore. 

Take the Buffalo Bills -6 to complete another season sweep of the visiting Miami Dolphins.