SMU vs Pitt Free Pick

Both teams are playing great this year. Undefeated (7-0) Pittsburgh is ranked #20 in the land. (7-1) SMU is ranked #20. The current betting spread has SMU favored -7.5 points. Pitt is 6-1 ATS and 2-0 ATS on the road. SMU is 5-3 ATS and 3-1 ATS at home.

Pitt’s resume’ is fairly impressive but not overwhelmingly so. They have beaten a slew of mediocre to slightly-above-mediocre teams. These teams are Cincy, UNC, Syracuse, WVU and Cal. They have yet to play a very good team and SMU is better than any team they faced this year.

SMU’s resume’ is the same. They beat mediocre to slightly-above-mediocre teams like TCU, Louisville and Duke. Their only loss was to a dominant and now #9 ranked BYU squad. These two have played each other 6 times with SMU holding the slight advantage 3-2-1 record.

SMU QB Kevin Jennings has a decent stat line of 1,594 yards passing with 10 TDs and 5 picks. He is also able to scramble to pick up the first down when need be and even has a 100+ rushing game this season. He has scored 2 TD’s with his feet.

Pitt QB Eli Holstein is a better passer than Jennings. He has thrown for 1,805 yards with 17 TD’s and 5 picks. He is also able to scramble for the first down and has 286 yards rushing for 3 TD’s this year. However, SMU is dominant in the running game. They average 177 yards per game on the ground. Pitt averages just 136 ypg rushing.

Pitt allows 22.8 PPG whereas SMU allows 23.4 PPG. In this aspect they are very similar. SMU’s rush defense is good but in the passing game they allow 255 yards per contest. Expect Pittsburgh to try and take advantage of this. Pitt’s rush defense allows under 100 yards per game and 258 passing. Expect Pitt to focus on SMU’s rush offense to try and shut it down, forcing Jennings to put the ball in the air.

If this game was in neutral territory I would make SMU 3 point favorites. But it is at SMU, which means you can add another FG on to that line. By this logic, SMU should only be 6 point favorites (let’s call is 5.5 because sportsbooks love the backside hook). The line sitting at 7.5 seems a little high and the advantage is all Pitt’s. I am taking the Panthers plus the points here. An undefeated team getting over a TD point spread is too tempting to pass up.