Michigan State vs Indiana Free Pick

Michigan State will be hosting undefeated Indiana this Saturday at 3:30pm EST. The current line has Indiana favored by -7.5 points. Forget the total as we are not interested in betting it.

Michigan State is a talented team but cannot seem to find consistency in their offensive attack. Ten days ago they hung 32 points on Iowa but the week prior managed only 10 points at Oregon and the week after just 17 at Michigan. To be honest this is because the inconsistent play of QB Aidan Chiles.

Chiles has thrown for just 7 TDs but 10 picks. When you turn the ball over that much there are going to be problems. The Spartans four wins came against Florida Atlantic, Prairie View, Maryland and Iowa. The ladder two are the only quality wins. Conversely, two of their four losses came against top 5 teams, Ohio State and Oregon. They lost to BC and Michigan as well.

Indiana is riding high right now. They are 8-0 and feeling good. However, not one of their 8 wins is against a very good program. The best teams they beat were Nebraska (5-3) and Washington (4-4). These are decent teams but not top tier. The Hoosiers are a good program but have not been seriously tested yet. They sit atop the Big Ten standings but you can bet if they played Oregon they would be double digit dogs.

Indiana QB Kurtis Rourke has passed for 1,941 yards (277.3 ypg) on 135-of-181 passing with 15 touchdowns compared to three interceptions this season. He is playing really well. Michigan State’s passing defense allows 195 YPG. This is where the game will be won or lost. If Michigan State can limit Rourke to under 200 yards passing they have a real shot at winning this game.

Keys for Michigan State winning this game are:

• Establish the run
• Don’t turn the ball over
• Take away the passing game of Indiana

Keys for Indiana to win this game are:

• Run balance to open up the passing game
• Force QB Aiden Chiles to make mistakes

Here’s the deal. I expected this line to be just a smidge higher, at say 8.5 points. I would really like Michigan State at that number. But, Michigan State at home +7.5 is still enticing. Indiana should have their hands full in this game. If they make mistakes they can lose this game straight up. Bet Michigan State +7.5 for a medium sized play. You can bet it at one of these sportsbooks