Why You Should Bet Early Season NBA

Many bettors are too focused on college football and the NFL to notice that the NBA kicks off every October. Most bettors want to wait 1) for the football season to end or 2) until they have a decent enough sample size to make more informed decisions. Either way, you could be missing out on some value bets. 

There is an ideal middle ground and it’s really no different than any other sporting day of the year. It comes down to knowing when to bet on value and when to avoid making careless wagers. For those of you that fit into one of those categories above, you should read on. There are some very good reasons why you should bet early season NBA games.

Less Betting Action

Since it is the middle of both the college and NFL football seasons, there is a lot less action on the NBA in October and November. The NBA betting handle is far less in these early months. There are simply too many other things going on in the sports world. Don’t forget about the MLB playoffs and the new NHL season. 

This is where more knowledgeable bettors can really take advantage. With less action, it is much easier to identify what sportsbooks and other bettors are thinking. Line movement is more transparent and smart bettors can spot it and react accordingly. 

It’s also the perfect time to be betting favorites. Remember, the public loves to bet favorites, but the betting public in the NBA isn’t all that large early in a season. Sportsbooks often inflate odds on favorites because of the public. However, without as much public influence, early season odds on favorites are much truer than later in a season.

The Books Aren’t As Focused

Sportsbooks are in the business of making money. In October and November (and even in December and January), most sportsbooks have their eyes on the NFL and college football. That is where they are making their most money. That means they aren’t as focused on the NBA.

Oddsmakers aren’t going to take the time to tweak odds and lines for Monday NBA games when there is a huge Monday night NFL game. The same could be said for a college football Saturday or an NFL Sunday. Many of the NBA games will have such a low betting volume that there is little risk to the sportsbooks. As a result, the smart bettor can find some opportunities in these early season NBA games.

Not As Much Media Coverage

Like the lack of focus by the sportsbooks, sports media is busy focusing on the NFL and the college football season. NBA news is a small fraction of the sports media during the months of October and November. 

Now, that doesn’t mean that there isn’t any media coverage on the NBA. There is, but bettors will have to search and find some sources of quality information they can use to bet these early season games. If you know where to look and find quality information, you can take advantage of some of these early NBA odds. 

Experienced Rosters

One of the easiest things you can do is look for an experienced roster, one that has played together for a while. Each year, there is always some roster turnover, but the teams with a core of players that stick together usually do well early in seasons. Players are comfortable with each other. They are more mature and it shows in their games early in a season.

This advantage will wear off as you get deeper into a season. Take the opening night Knicks-Celtics clash. The Celtics had essentially the same lineup that they had when they won last year’s NBA championship. New York added Karl-Anthony Towns not long before the season started. It’s going to take a while for the Knicks to adjust and it showed in their opening game. Boston won and covered the spread with a 132-109 victory.

Find Underdogs to Back

While you will find truer odds on favorites early in the NBA season, it’s also a time when you can capitalize on some strong underdogs. It happens every year. To many teams, these early season games are an afterthought. Sure, they want to win, but what they really want is to qualify for the postseason and then really pour it on. 

Sometimes, big favorites get caught not focusing on an opponent or even looking past an inferior opponent. Those are times you definitely want to be on the underdog. There are also opportunities with two pretty strong teams. One has to be the underdog, right?

Take the Oklahoma City-Denver game on Thursday, Oct. 24. The Thunder were 2.5-point underdogs to the Nuggets. Remember, last year both teams finished with identical records, but OKC was the West’s No. 1 seed in the playoffs. 

With the Nuggets at home, they were 2.5-point favorites and listed at -142 on the moneyline. The Thunder were given +120 moneyline odds. It was the perfect opportunity to take a shot on a strong moneyline underdog. For bettors that recognized it, the bet did pay off. Oklahoma City won the game 102-87.

If you aren’t betting early season NBA games, you should start. There are opportunities out there. You just have to find them.