Is Tua Playing This Weekend?

Perhaps no player has been more seriously effected by concussions in modern NFL history as Tua Tagovailoa. The QB1 for the Dolphins for the past 5 seasons has had three major incidents on the field in his pro career where he was knocked out cold. The hits didn’t seem particularly violent and flags weren’t even thrown on the plays. He took normal NFL hits and would be left on the field, clearly knocked out.

Tua was knocked out in week 2 of this year and has not returned since. The word from Tua’s camp was that he was going to return after the bye week. Well, the bye-week just passed and it doesn’t look like Tua is coming back. According to SBAodds.com the Dolphins are 3.5 point underdogs at Indianapolis this Sunday. If Tua were playing you could probably expect this line to be more like a PK.

After the most recent concussion, I stated that Tua’s career is most likely over. Critics of that statement suggested it was ridiculous because he had already stated he was coming back to play this season. My counterpoint was that of course he is going to say that. Tua just signed a massive 4 year $212M extension this past off-season. He will need to be medically retired in order to collect that money. It will take the rest of the season of specialists telling him that he should not return to be medically forced to retire.

In my opinion his career is over. If not now, then after he receives his next concussion which will surely happen sooner than later. Once a player has received more than one concussion, it takes less and less to cause the next one. If Tua wants to avoid having permanent brain damage, it’s best for him to hang up the cleats. He knows this. His family knows this. And the Miami Dolphins know it. I fully expect a retirement announcement this off-season. We are not a sportsbook, but if we were, I would easily put even odds on him retiring before the start of the 2025 NFL season.

For his part, Mike McDaniel is playing along. This week he said the following: “There’s still information that he’s (Tua) seeking this week and as far as timelines go,” McDaniel said. “I do expect to see him playing football in 2024, but where that is exactly, we’ll let the process continue since we still have time before we can even entertain anything. We’ll make sure that he’s diligent this week and assess after that.”

Dolphins owner Stephen Ross is surely kicking himself. This was Tua’s final season of his rookie contract. The Dolphins could have easily let it play out before offering him the bag. It would have been the smart thing to do. But Tua seems like a genuinely nice guy and it’s nice to see him get the retirement-worthy bankroll even if it is at the expense of Miami Dolphins tickets rising in cost and parking passes costing 50 bucks a piece.