College Football’s Most Surprising Teams ATS

It happens every college football season. It kicks off and then all of a sudden, it’s Week 6. As we head into the sixth week of the 2024 college football season, we stop for a second to take a look at some of the biggest surprises. If you are looking for some solid bets, you might want to consider the following teams. They are college football most surprising teams against the spread so far in 2024.

Indiana

The Hoosiers were awful in 2023. They finished 3-9 overall which led to the dismissal of former head coach Tom Allen. Indiana hired Curt Cignetti who led James Madison through its very successful transition from FCS to FBS. 

Indiana was picked to finish 17th in the new 18-team Big Ten. The Hoosiers’ win total for the season was set at 5.5. Fast forward and Cignetti’s Hoosiers are 5-0 and 4-1 ATS. The offense is a juggernaut, averaging 41.8 points per game. That is 11th in the nation. Cignetti-coached football teams are known for their strong defensive play. Indiana ranks 15th in the country in scoring defense, allowing 15.5 points per game. The Hoosiers average scoring margin of 26.3 ranks 8th. 

Cignetti did it right. He brought in former MAC Offensive Player of the Year Kurtis Rourke to be the Hoosiers quarterback. He has completed over 73 percent of his passes and he averages over 10 yards per attempt. Cignetti also brought 13 players from James Madison. Three of Indiana’s top four tacklers are JMU transfers. 

Indiana, now No. 23 in the nation, is at Northwestern this Saturday. The Hoosiers will face Ohio State and Michigan near the end of the season before their annual season-ending rivalry game against Purdue.

BYU

Like Indiana, BYU struggled last season, going 2-7 in its first year in the Big 12. The 2023 season was just the second time since 2005 that BYU missed a bowl game. Head coach Kilani Sitake retooled and revamped and now the Cougars are 5-0 SU and ATS.

The big reason for the resurgence is defense. BYU ranks 18th in the nation in scoring defense, allowing opponents 16.5 points per game. The Cougars are also 16th in yards per play. Last year, they ranked 92nd in that category. 

Most experts picked BYU to finish 13th in the Big 12, but now the Cougars seem like legitimate conference title contenders as well as potential College Football Playoff participants. BYU is ranked No. 17 in the most recent AP poll and they are already 2-0 in the Big 12 with a huge win over No. 20 Kansas State. 

The offense averages 33 points a game. The Cougars are led by Jake Retzlaff who was the nation’s top JUCO quarterback before he arrived at BYU last year. He played behind Kedon Slovis in 2023 and is now in the midst of a breakout season. 

BYU is off this week. The Cougars will host Arizona next Saturday.

Pitt

The Panthers really struggled on offense last year. In the offseason, head coach Pat Narduzzi knew he had to do something. He went out and hired former Western Carolina offensive coordinator Kade Bell. Narduzzi also brought in former Alabama QB Eli Holstein. The moves have been a great success.

Pitt is off to a 4-0 start and the Panthers are also 4-0 ATS. Last year, Pitt ranked 97th in overall passer rating. They are much better this year. Bell’s offense is up-tempo and pass-happy. The Panthers are ninth in the nation in passing offense (323 ypg) and 12th in scoring (40.3 ppg). They rank sixth in yards per play and Holstein ranks 15th in passer rating. 

Pitt plays at North Carolina on Saturday. The Tar Heels have won eight of the last ten games against the Panthers. 

Rutgers

Head coach Greg Schiano has done an outstanding job at Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have a strong running game and an outstanding defense. That’s why they are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS so far this season. That includes a home win and cover over Washington last week. 

RB Kyle Monangai rushed for over 1,200 yards last year. He’s been great so far in 2024. Monangai is averaging just under 150 yards a game and over six yards per carry. QB Athan Kaliakmanis transferred in from Minnesota and earned the starting job. He has been very efficient and he hasn’t made many mistakes. 

Rutgers has turned the ball over just twice in four games this season. The Scarlet Knights are at Nebraska on Saturday. 

James Madison

It wasn’t supposed to go like this. The Dukes lost Cignetti to Indiana as well as most of their roster. Cignetti took 13 players with him to Indiana and last year’s Sun Belt Player of the Year Jordan McCloud transferred to Texas State. 

JMU hired former Holy Cross head coach Bob Chesney. What has he done so far? James Madison is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS. The Dukes opened some eyes when they hung 70 points on North Carolina two weeks ago. 

QB Alonza Barnett has really come along. He has 12 touchdown passes to just one interception and he’s rushed for 247 yards and three scores. Four JMU wide receivers have at least 150 yards receiving. James Madison is at UL-Monroe this Saturday. The Dukes are 16-point favorites.

UNLV

One of the most pleasant surprises so far in 2024 has been UNLV. The Rebels have been in the news lately too. After last season, QB Jayden Maiava transferred to USC. UNLV brought in former Holy Cross QB Matthew Sluka. Sluka got it done for the Rebels in his three games, but he left the program and will transfer to another school for next season. 

Despite all the drama, UNLV is 4-0 SU and ATS. Hajj-Malik Williams took over at quarterback last week and the Rebels’ Go-Go offense didn’t miss a beat. UNLV averages 283 rushing yards per game (sixth nationally) and the Rebels score 45.3 points per game. The defense is solid as well and head coach Barry Odom’s team already has two wins over Big 12 teams (Houston, Kansas).

UNLV, now ranked No. 25, hosts Syracuse on Friday night.

Illinois

For the first time since 2011, Illinois started a season 4-0 SU. The Fighting Illini are now 4-1 SU after a loss to Penn State, but they are 4-0-1 ATS. Head coach Bret Bielema’s team does it with defense. The Illini rank 34th against the pass (185 ypg) and 22nd in scoring, allowing opponents 17.8 points per game. 

Illinois has wins over Kansas and Nebraska and they are almost to their season win total. Before the season, oddsmakers set the Illini win total at 5.5. Illinois trailed Penn State by just seven points in the fourth quarter. They gave up a late touchdown but still covered that game. 

The Illini are off this week. They are back in action next week when they host Purdue on Saturday.