NCAAF No. 10 Michigan at Washington Free Pick

Much has changed since Michigan 34, Washington 13 at the title game in Houston last season.

Both lost their head coaches. Both lost key players, either to the higher-paying NFL or the perhaps-higher-paying transfer portal…and both are now in the same conference. 

No. 10 Michigan (4-1, 2-0 in Big Ten) has advanced in the polls, the ugliness of a home drubbing at the hands of the Texas Longhorns now a month old.

New coach Sherrone Moore and the Wolverines hit the road (first time this season) off a pair of 27-24 Big House wins (Southern California and Minnesota). The last game saw the Golden Gophers make things interesting with three touchdowns in the final quarter. 

There was also the requisite amount of controversy when Minnesota was ruled to be offside after recovering an onside kick in the waning minutes.    

Washington (3-2, 1-1) went to New Jersey and lost a 21-18 short-week game at Rutgers. There was a 24-19 Apple Cup (Lumen Field) loss to the rival Washington St. Cougars, so a season of fits and starts under first-season coach Jedd Fisch. 

Evidenced by the low total, both these defenses are stout. 

Kickoff at Husky Stadium (Michigan’s first Seattle since ‘01) is 7:30 PM (ET) Saturday evening. Level of competition notwithstanding, Washington is 3-0 in true home games this season.

Washington is a field-goal favorite (total at 41½), according to college football odds.

Michigan is leading the all-time series, 9-5. 

These Flawed Wolverines

Immediately after a perfect 15-0 season and their first national title since 1997, the Michigan Wolverines’ storylines have been fluid. Coach Jim Harbaugh returned to the NFL (Los Angeles Chargers), arguably to bid adieu to NCAA violations. 

The Wolverines began this season with Davis Warren at quarterback, but two touchdowns and six interceptions by Warren saw a change to Alex Orji.

Orji hasn’t been elite at throwing the football (36 passes, 3.7 yards per attempt). At least Orji provides a threat run. He is already third on the team 113 rushing yards (32 carries).

Orji didn’t complete any more than 10 passes in either of Michigan’s wins over the Trojans and  Gophers. He hasn’t exceeded 86 passing yards in any game this season.

That’s not a formula which figures to work on the road. 

Kalel Mullings (540 rushing yards, seven yards/carry) is the best offensive weapon (six ground touchdowns), while Coleston Loveland (23 receptions, 228 yards) leads the wideouts. 

Defensively, the Wolverines’ 68.8 surrendered ground yards/game ranks sixth in the nation. 

Those Undisciplined Huskies

Washington failed itself against Rutgers last week, as the The Huskies were guilty of multiple unsportsmanlike-conduct penalties, they missed three field goals, and derailed other drives due to stupid penalties.

They blocked a Rutgers field goal, but a freshman ‘celebrated’ too early, thus negating it.

The penalties have been the story all year. In the final box, Washington was better (521 yards of offense, but a loss regardless). 

It will probably have less issues with the raucous home crowd on its side.  

Quarterback Will Rogers, ex of Mississippi St., has been solid (1,354 passing yards, 10 touchdowns, no interceptions), with a receiving tandem of Giles Jacksom and Denzel Boston catching a combined 64 balls (each over 400 yards to date). 

Back the Favorite  

Michigan is 20-1 (+2000) to win the Big Ten, Washington a robust 125-1 (+12500), as per college football conference odds.

Michigan hasn’t played a road game this season, but the Wolverines have seemingly recovered after that Texas thumping.

Now they’ll be on the road against a Washington defense that has surrendered 128 passing yards and fewer than 122 ground yards. Michigan won’t find much success throwing the football (it hasn’t to any degree this season).

Washington has an offense to beat any opposition defense, provided no shooting itself in the foot. Try limiting bad/inexcusable penalties.

Washington is way more dangerous than Michigan. With fewer penalties at home, go with the favored Huskies to exact some measure of revenge against the Wolverines.