Betting the 2024 MLB Playoffs

There are plenty of options for baseball bettors to wager on the 2024 MLB playoffs. The first step in the process is to understand the format of the MLB postseason. There have been some changes made over the last several years.

There will be three wild card teams in each league. As a result, six clubs from each of the National League and American League will advance to the postseason. The three division winners qualify automatically. Then, the wild cards are determined by the next three non-division winners with the best overall records.

The previous one-and-done wild card format has been replaced with a best-of-three wild card series. The top two seeds in each league’s MLB playoffs receive a bye to the division series. Seeds No. 3 through No. 6 play in the wild card round.

There will still be a best-of-five division series. The higher seed has home field advantage. Games 1, 2, and 5 of the division series are held at the higher seed’s location according to the 2-2-1 format.

The AL and NL championship series as well as the World Series follow a 2-3-2, best-of-seven home-and-away schedule. The World Series team that had the higher winning percentage in the regular season gets home field advantage. Last year, Texas started every series on the road until the World Series. The Rangers had a higher regular season winning percentage than Arizona and, thus, received home field advantage.

Pitching Rules

One of the best indicators of a team’s success in the MLB postseason is its pitching staff. Take a long look at both starters and relievers as you look at pitching. Matchups will be key and don’t forget, teams will often reduce their starting pitching rotation. During the regular season, teams rotate through five starting pitchers. In the playoffs, teams will often use just four and sometimes even three.

Starters that don’t make the playoff pitching rotation then go to the bullpen. A team’s fourth or fifth starter can be used to bolster the relief staff. These pitchers can often pitch two to five innings in relief prior to a closer. Teams with great pitching staffs can have an advantage over teams that rely more on their offensive success.

Always, always, always, diagnose the starting pitching matchup first. This will be a major factor in how you proceed to bet on a given playoff game.

MLB Playoffs: Home Field Advantage

Playing at home is usually overvalued by public bettors. There are benefits to playing at home during the MLB playoffs. Crowds get excited in cities where October weather is bitterly cold. Winning games in cold weather can be tough on fair weather teams. 

Since pitching is such a huge factor in betting on MLB playoff games, there are advantages to playing in pitcher-friendly ballparks. San Diego, for example, has clinched a playoff spot. Bettors should pay attention to the pitching matchups when the Padres are at home at Petco Park. According to Statcast Park Factors, the Padres home stadium ranks among the top three pitcher-friendly ballparks in MLB.

The opposite is also true. There are ballparks that are more hitter-friendly. Kauffman Stadium, for example, has been very good to the Kansas City Royals who are still in the thick of the playoff race. Check out ballpark factors as well as the pitching matchups before betting on MLB playoff games this year.

Thorough Research

As was previously mentioned, research is essential for MLB bettors to succeed. In today’s MLB, there are a ton of numbers available. Bettors can learn a great deal from advanced analytics to help them handicap games.

You can compare pitcher versus batter statistics, hitting statistics, and pitching statistics before making a bet. It’s also worth the time to check prices at various sportsbooks. In MLB playoff games, one sportsbook may have a team that you like as the betting favorite. Another book may have the same team as a short moneyline underdog. Take advantage of better pricing when you can.

Don’t Forget the Run Line

Even though it’s the playoffs and it’s the best teams in MLB, there will be playoff blowouts. To cover the run line, all you need is a team to win by two. Keep in mind that roughly 30 percent of all MLB games are decided by one run. That means 70 percent of them are decided by two or more. 

Once again, it’s the research that will point you in the right direction. Close analysis of the pitching matchup as well as taking into account hitter-versus-pitcher matchups and other factors can help you arrive on a run line bet.

Often later in a series, Games 4 and 5 for example, teams will opt to use a relief pitcher as the starter. Then, they will use their No. 4 or 5 starter to give them two to four or even five innings or work in the middle of the game before going with their best remaining available relievers. Often, those games end up being slugfests and end up with margins of two or more runs. Do the research and don’t forget the run line. You’ll often find some great prices.

The Power of Momentum

Momentum can do a lot for a baseball team. Take last year as a great example. Only eight wild card teams have ever won the World Series. Prior to last year, the number was seven. The Rangers entered last season’s playoffs as a wild card and proceeded to win the 2023 World Series.

A big win in one game can lead to a second. A series victory can carry over into the next series, and so on. Teams that get hot at the right time – the Arizona Diamondbacks ran through the competition last year to win the NL pennant – are great teams to consider backing. Often, the public continues backing popular teams even when they aren’t playing well and underdogs can be found at even better prices. 

Sometimes the momentum from the regular season carries over into the playoffs. The opposite is also true. There have been teams that start a season red hot but kind of fade over the second half. They still make the postseason, but poor momentum, for whatever reason, causes a team to be eliminated early from the MLB playoffs.

Check the Weather

The time of year means that weather will play a big part in MLB postseason betting. In places where the weather tends to turn colder and rainier this time of year, it’s useful to check the forecast prior to the game.

One of the primary meteorological elements affecting MLB games is wind. MLB game totals are specifically impacted by wind velocities. When the wind is blowing into home plate at a speed of five mph or more, the Under cashes in more than half of MLB games. Winds blowing in can cause long fly balls to simply become long fly outs.

When winds are blowing toward the outfield, the same applies. Since 2005, wind speeds of at least 8 have caused the Over to hit over 53 percent of the time. Those long fly balls can become home runs in some stadiums. Keep that in mind as you make your MLB playoff bets.