This NFL Problem Isn’t Going Away

What do the Denver Broncos, Carolina Panthers, Miami Dolphins, and Cleveland Browns have in common? Yes, they are all 1-2 heading into Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season, but beyond that all four of those teams have some serious cash invested in their starting quarterbacks. Denver drafted Bo Nix this year and are fortunate he is on his rookie deal, but they still have some money tied up in Russell Wilson. Likewise, Bryce Young is on his rookie contract in Carolina.

Over the past ten NFL seasons, 34 quarterbacks have been taken in the first round of the annual draft. It’s obviously the most valuable position on the field and teams have to pay for good ones. But, are they paying too much? 

 

It’s Not Elementary Watson

The Browns signed Deshaun Watson to a 5-year, $230 million contract in 2022. Then, they were dumb enough to guarantee the whole thing. Watson found himself in some hot water due to allegations of sexual harassment and didn’t play in the first 11 games of the 2022 season. In his first game back, Watson threw for 131 yards and a pick. His passer rating was a career-worst 53.4. His career has pretty much reflected that since being traded to the Browns.

Three games into the 2024 season, Watson is completing 57.4 percent of his passes (28th among 32 starters). He has three touchdown passes and two interceptions and he’s been sacked an NFL-high 16 times. That’s not even the bad news.

Watson will once again face sexual harassment allegations. Another woman came forward with a claim of sexual harassment that allegedly occurred in 2020 when Watson was still playing in Houston. Watson, of course, denies the accusation. 

With the way he has played since being traded to Cleveland, the Browns have to be wondering “how do we get rid of Watson?” It won’t be easy and it won’t happen soon. If Cleveland were to release Watson, they would instantly lose about $100 million of next year’s salary cap. That isn’t happening. The Browns could cut him on June 1 of next year, but they would still lose $46 million. The earliest Cleveland could get rid of Watson and not lose tens of millions toward the salary cap is … wait for it … 2026!

 

Tua or Not Tua

Then, there’s the case of Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins drafted Tagovailoa with the fifth overall pick in the 2020 NFL draft. By NFL standards, Tua is not a “big” quarterback and he has a history of injury. While at Alabama, he suffered a high ankle and a dislocated hip in 2019. 

Still, Tua made his mark last year when he completed 69.3 percent of his passes for 4,624 yards. He threw 29 touchdowns and took Miami to the playoffs. In the offseason, the Dolphins worked out a contract extension with Tua, giving him a four-year, $212 million deal. Of that total, $167.2 million is guaranteed.

Now in his fifth year in the NFL, Tagovailoa has suffered fractured ribs, a fractured finger, and just last week suffered his third concussion within the last 24 months. Miami placed him on injured reserve and Tua will miss at least four weeks. 

Of course, there is talk of Tua retiring from the game, but that doesn’t seem likely unless he is never cleared to play again. Then, he could take his $167.2 million and go live on an island for the rest of his days. The Dolphins really can’t do anything either other than hold onto Tua.

Miami, like Cleveland, can’t release Tua without absorbing huge salary cap losses until 2026. The Dolphins could release Tagovailoa on June 1 after the 2025 season. They would still suffer a $47 million dead money cap charge, but they would create $9 million in salary cap space for 2026. Miami could also try and trade Tua, but don’t expect many takers with his injury history.

 

Buy an Old Veteran?

Peyton Manning retired from the NFL in 2015, leaving the Denver Broncos in need of a quarterback. They’ve been in need ever since. There was Trevor Siemian, Paxton Lynch, Brock Osweiler, Case Keenum, Drew Lock, Teddy Bridgewater, and a few others before the Broncos had an idea. Let’s go get Russell Wilson.

Wilson was a Super Bowl winning quarterback for the Seattle Seahawks. Now, Wilson led Seattle to a Super Bowl win in just his second NFL season and then took the Seahawks back to the big game in 2014. He’s never made it back. Wilson was 10 years into his NFL career when Denver mortgaged some of its future to sign Wilson to a five-year, $245 million contract.

Sounds like a great deal, right? The 2022 season was likely Wilson’s worst as a pro. He had a career-low completion percentage, was sacked an NFL-high 55 times, and his record as the Broncos starter was just 4-11. Wilson would finish 11-19 in 30 games as Denver’s starter. 

The Broncos released Wilson earlier this year and took an $85 million salary cap hit over the next two seasons. If you are starting to notice a pattern, you have probably figured it out. The NFL has a serious problem with quarterbacks. And, it isn’t going away.

 

The Quest for a QB

As mentioned, 34 quarterbacks have been selected in the first round of the NFL draft over the past 10 seasons. Of those 34, you can easily say that three of them are bona fide stars – Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen. Jackson and Mahomes each have two NFL MVPs under their belts. Mahomes, of course, has won three Super Bowls. Allen continues to win games in Buffalo without a star-studded supporting cast.

Jared Goff resurrected his career in Detroit. Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Jordan Love – all selected in 2020 – could be on their ways to great careers. Last year’s No. 2 pick, CJ Stroud, was last year’s NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. He will likely work out for the Houston Texans. That’s it. The rest? Swing and a miss, though the verdict is still out on this year’s draft class. 

 

It’s Not Going Away

This offseason, Jacksonville gave QB Trevor Lawrence (No. 1 pick, 2021) a five-year contract extension worth $275 million. Of that $275 million, the Jags guaranteed $142 million. The average value of the contract comes out to $55 million per season, which makes him one of the top five paid quarterbacks in the NFL.

Lawrence had a decent statistical season in 2023, but the Jags failed to advance to the postseason. So far in 2024, Jacksonville is 0-3 with Lawrence completing just 52.8 percent of his passes. If the Jags quarterback continues to regress, the Jags will have the same issue the Broncos, Browns, and others have.

The problem won’t be going away either. The average value of an NFL franchise is about $7 billion. Billionaire owners and ownership groups can afford to throw around $250 to $300 million on a gamble, hoping they get a Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. If not, they simply eat the cost and strike again. That’s what Denver did in drafting Bo Nix this season and we will continue to see NFL teams swing big at the quarterback position.