Win More Bets With Hidden NFL & CFB Stats
Scott Morris | September 26, 2024
Ultimately, we’d love to win more of our NFL and college football bets. There is so much data available these days, but most just don’t know where to start. Too often, the betting public just bets with their head or “has a feeling.” We all know that is usually a recipe for disaster.
If you are looking for an advantage, for something to help you make better decisions when betting on college football or the NFL, you may want to dig into some “hidden” statistics. These stats aren’t hidden from the public, but they are not high on the list of items that normal bettors look at before placing wagers.
There are others, but here are three hidden football stats that bettors should consider before placing their bets.
Turnover Margin
Every college football coach in America will tell you that you must win the turnover battle in order to be successful. Teams that consistently turn the ball over don’t win a lot of football games. Good teams that turn the ball over often get beat. Take Kansas State just last week.
The Wildcats were ranked No. 13 in the country heading into their game with unranked BYU. Kansas State, a 7.5-point favorite, turned the ball over three times. BYU had zero turnovers and the Cougars won the game easily, 38-9.
Over the course of a college football season, if a team can maintain a turnover margin slightly higher than +1, their chances of success are huge. Over the last decade (and probably even further back), a college football team with a turnover margin over +1 has a winning season 98 percent of the time.
Last season offers a great example. The nation’s leader in turnover margin was +1.3. That team went 15-0 and won the national championship. That, of course, was Michigan. Each of the previous four season leaders in turnover margin – all +1.2 or higher – won at least 10 games and either a conference championship, bowl game, or both. (Note: that does not include the 2020 COVID season)
Positive Pass Differential
There is no question that the game of football in the NFL has become a passing game. It is centered on the quarterback and teams with the better quarterbacks typically have the most success. A hidden statistic that can help predict an NFL team’s success is positive pass differential. You need to understand what exactly this is first.
If an NFL quarterback throws for 300 yards in a game on 30 pass attempts, he averages 10 yards per attempt. On the other end, a defense allows 5.0 yards per attempt if an opposing quarterback passes for 150 yards on 30 attempts. The pass differential in this case would be 5.0 yards (10 yards per attempt on offense – 5.0 yards per attempt given up on defense).
Teams that have a positive average pass differential are much more likely to finish with winning records and make the NFL playoffs. Since 2003, 87 percent of teams with a positive pass differential have made the postseason. Each of the past five Super Bowl champions have had a pass differential of at least +1.3. All five of those teams (Chiefs, Chiefs, Rams, Bucs, and Chiefs) finished in the Top 10 in both Yards per Attempt and Opponent Yards per Attempt.
Rush Attempts + Completions
Now, this is where you have to dig deep. Think for a second about most championship teams in either college football or the NFL. In the NFL, it’s a bit more pronounced, but championship teams have elite quarterback play. That means teams have guys that complete passes…a lot of them, or at least a high percentage of them.
Championship teams are also typically very good at running the football. While football has become a passing game, the last five college national champions have all finished in the Top 50 in rushing yards per game and all five rushed for 170 or more yards per game.
In the NFL, rushing yardage per game doesn’t necessarily correlate with more wins, but when you combine rushing attempts per game with the number of pass completions per game you get something very interesting. Add up a team’s rushing attempts and pass completions and if the total is over 50, that team has a 72 percent chance of winning.
Over the last 15 seasons, teams with 50 or more rush attempts plus completions in a game have won 71.6 percent of the time. So far in 2024, there are four teams that are 3-0 heading into Week 4. Buffalo and Kansas City are no surprise, but Pittsburgh and Seattle definitely raise some eyebrows.
The Steelers, of course, play great defense, but one look at their rush attempts plus completions and you see that they have been pretty efficient on offense. Pittsburgh went over 50 in two of their games and landed at 49 in the other. It’s a similar story for Seattle where the Seahawks went over 50 in their first two games and hit 49 in their most recent win, a 24-3 victory over Miami.
