Denver Broncos – Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Free Pick
Scott Morris | September 20, 2024
Denver Broncos @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB -6.5, 40.5)
Sunday, September 22, 1:00 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
As we enter Week 3 of the season, the NFC has four teams that are unbeaten, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers standing out among this select group. The Bucs are the only one of the seven NFC playoff teams from the previous campaign to start the season 2-0. They will look to maintain their perfect record when they host the Denver Broncos on Sunday.
The Bucs defeated the Detroit Lions 20–16 on the road last weekend. Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield’s opportunistic offense and just enough defense to record a 2-0 start for the fourth straight year. Head coach Todd Bowles and his team know that the goal is the Super Bowl and a strong start to a season helps.
All of those prior 2-0 starts have had one thing in common: none of them turned into a third straight victory. Last year, the Bucs suffered a 25-11 home loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3. The last time Tampa Bay started a season 3-0 was in 2005.
With their victory on Sunday over the Lions, the Buccaneers exacted a small measure of revenge. Detroit eliminated Tampa Bay in the NFC Divisional round of the playoffs last year. It’s a long season and if the Bucs are going to make a playoff run again the defense is going to have to get better.
Tampa Bay’s defense ranks 28th in terms of total yards allowed per game (381). However, the Bucs only allow 18.0 points per game. That number is tied for sixth best in the league. They will face a Denver offense led by a rookie quarterback.
Bo Nix was selected by Denver with the No. 10 overall pick in this year’s draft. He’s had a tough go so far, completing just 59.7 percent of his passes with no touchdowns and four interceptions. Last week, Nix threw a costly pick in the end zone to thwart a Broncos drive that would have given Denver their first points of the game.
Now, Nix will try and exploit a Tampa Bay pass defense that ranks 29th in the NFL. The Bucs are giving up 242.5 passing yards per game to opponents. It would help if the Broncos could run the football, but they’ve only gained 163 yards on the ground in two games. Nix (9-60) is Denver’s leading rusher. As a result of the Broncos’ poor offensive play, they scored just two Will Lutz field goals in last week’s loss to Pittsburgh.
There are ten teams in the NFL with less than 100 yards rushing per game. One of those, of course, is Denver. Another is Tampa Bay. The Bucs are averaging 91 rushing yards per game. The running game was an issue last year as well. Denver will likely continue to have issues running the football as OT Mike McGlinchey was placed on injured reserve on Wednesday. He’ll miss at least four games.
The Denver defense has been solid. They are a Top 10 unit in total defense and rank fourth against the pass. They also just played Pittsburgh, which used a backup quarterback and has one of the worst passing games in the NFL. Facing Mayfield and the Bucs will put the Broncos defense to the test.
Tampa Bay is now 8-2 SU in its last 10 games. The Bucs have won 5 of their last 6 at home and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five overall. Denver is just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in their last six games. The Broncos do catch the Bucs in a unique spot though. Tampa Bay is coming off a big win in a game that could have gone the other way if the Lions could have finished in the red zone.
The other thing to consider is Broncos head coach Sean Payton. In Week 1 and 2 games in his NFL coaching career, Payton is rather pedestrian 12-22 ATS. That’s the second-worst record over the last 20 years in Week 1 and 2 games.
Given some time to make early adjustments, Payton’s record in Weeks 3 and 4 is much better. In fact, it’s the best record of about 130-plus coaches over the last two decades. Payton is 22-9-1 ATS in Week 3 and 4 games. And, don’t forget, Baker Mayfield is just 15-26-1 ATS when he plays as the betting favorite. One of this week’s surprises will see the Broncos cover against the Bucs.
Best Bet: Denver Broncos +6.5
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