NCAAF First Coach Fired Odds and Predictions

James Willis | September 5, 2024

We’re only one week into the 2024 College Football season and the state of Florida is already in an uproar. The state’s top two university football programs are a combined 0-3. The best head coach in the state right now might be UCF’s Gus Malzahn. His offense fired up 639 yards of offense in a 57-3 beatdown of New Hampshire in Week 1. That was a lot more fun than what Billy Napier and Mike Norvell experienced to open the 2024 season.

And just like that we have our first college football coaches hot seat. Napier is firmly entrenched in the throne with Norvell with at least a cheek on the chair. They might want to make some room for Brian Kelly of LSU, which lost yet another season opener. Kelly can probably recover as he did last year guiding the Tigers to a 10-3 season. Napier? Probably not.

Napier Is The Favorite to Get Axed First

It’s such a foregone conclusion that Napier is out that his odds to be fired first are now at -150. Napier hasn’t produced a winning season – 6-7 and 5-7 – at Florida and the Gators started 2024 with a bad 41-17 loss to No. 12 Miami. The Hurricanes rolled up 529 yards of offense and QB Cam Ward looked like a Heisman Trophy candidate.

On offense, Florida was equally bad. QB Graham Mertz was awful and didn’t even throw for 100 yards. The Gators get a bit of a reprieve as they face FCS Samford this week, but then it’s right into the SEC schedule with Texas A&M. Napier has four dates with ranked SEC opponents (Georgia, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Texas) and he might not be around to see them all. The Gators also have a non-conference game at home on Oct 5 against Malzahn’s UCF team.

Even if Napier gets a win this week and maybe one against Mississippi State on Sept. 21, he’s probably gone once they get whacked at Tennessee on Oct. 12.

Who’s Next?

After Napier, we’ll have to get a little deeper into the season. Sam Pittman is next on the board, but his Arkansas Razorbacks scored touchdowns on their first seven possessions last week as they “pig sooied” Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 70-0. This week will be much different.

Arkansas goes on the road to face No. 16 Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are favored to win the Big 12 and return the nation’s leading rusher in Ollie Gordon II. Pittman went 4-8 last season after consecutive winning seasons and two bowl victories. Like Napier, Pittman is probably safe for now, but the Razorbacks will play Texas A&M at AT&T Stadium, Tennessee, and LSU in consecutive games. They also have dates with Ole Miss and Texas.

With the Razorbacks win total set at 5.5, Arkansas isn’t expected to tear it up this season. Getting to six wins will be a chore. Even six W’s might send Pittman packing, but will it come during the season?

Warm Up the Cushion

Baylor coach fired Dave Aranda is a defensive mastermind. His defenses at LSU and Wisconsin were some of the best in recent college football history. In his second season at Baylor, Aranda led the Bears to a 12-2 record and a Sugar Bowl win. Baylor ended up No. 5 in the final rankings in 2021. Then came the slide.

Baylor went 6-7 in 2022 and just 3-9 last year. The defense took a huge step back. The Bears were 115th in the nation against the run last year. Baylor allowed 421.3 yards per game, 110th in the country and they gave up 33.3 points per game (113th). Those numbers are uncharacteristic of Aranda-coached teams.

Baylor did win its season opener, but it was a 45-3 victory over FCS Tarleton State. The Bears are at Utah this week and have tough road games at Iowa State and at Texas Tech. Another three-win season won’t cut it. Aranda is given +700 odds, but he is probably safe for a few weeks.

Can Norvell Save His Job?

Even after consecutive losses in Week 0 and Week 1 to start the 2024 season, Florida State’s Mike Norvell is not among the top ten coaches to be fired. Norvell is listed at +1500 odds to be fired. The Seminoles got manhandled by Georgia Tech in the game over in Dublin, but the real surprise came last week.

Boston College rushed for 263 yards against FSU and led from start to finish in a 28-13 victory over the Seminoles. Florida State rushed for a mere 21 yards and QB DJ Uiagalelei only completed 50 percent of his passes. The sky isn’t falling in Tallahassee, but Norvell better watch out. The Seminoles don’t play this week, but they do get AAC favorite Memphis next week. The Tigers have a very good quarterback in Seth Henigan and if the ‘Noles let Memphis hang around, Norvell might be making his way to that hot seat sooner rather than later.