Texas at Michigan College Football Free Pick

Texas @ Michigan (TEX -7.5, 42.5)

Saturday, September 7, 12:00 PM ET

Michigan Stadium

It’s a huge early season matchup of Top 10 teams as No. 3 Texas heads to No. 10 Michigan to take on the Wolverines. Both teams won their season openers. The Longhorns were dominant in just about every facet of the game and whooped up on Colorado State, 52-0. Michigan left a lot to be desired on offense but did come away with a convincing 30-10 win over Fresno State.

The Wolverines led from start to finish, scoring on their first drive after intercepting Fresno State QB Mikey Keene. After that, the Michigan offense was pretty bland. Head coach Sherrone Moore watched as the Wolverines kicked three field goals before producing a quality drive late in the fourth quarter that put Michigan up 23-10. Will Johnson’s 86-yard interception return with 3:57 to play iced the game.

That Michigan offense is going to need to pick it up against a Texas team that not only put up 52 points on Colorado State, but also gained 545 yards of total offense. The Texas defense was equally as dominating, holding the Rams to just 192 total yards. It could end up a defensive battle, but can the Michigan offense come out of its shell in Week 2?

Hail to Michigan

Traveling to Ann Arbor and playing front of 100,000-plus fans can be intimidating. The Wolverines are 20-0 SU in their last 20 games at Michigan Stadium. Last year, Michigan went 9-5-1 ATS but only 2-4-1 ATS in their home games at Michigan Stadium. Now, three of those ATS losses were early season games with point spreads all over 35. Still, Michigan has struggled to cover at home.

That’s likely because opponents would love nothing more than to beat the Wolverines on their home turf. Michigan typically gets an opponent’s best shot. Moore and the Wolverines will most certainly get the Longhorns best on Saturday. Michigan must improve on offense if it is going to have a chance at pulling the upset.

In last week’s win over Fresno State, Michigan had nine possessions that started after a kickoff or punt. Four of those were quality drives, but three of them ended in field goals. Kicking field goals this Saturday will not keep Michigan in this game. The Michigan passing game was 16-for-27 for 121 yards last week. The Wolverines did throw two touchdown passes, but 121 yards against Texas isn’t going to cut it.

Don’t Overlook the Texas Defense

The public is focused on Quinn Ewers and the Texas offense that put up 545 yards of offense and 52 points last week. But, don’t forget about what should turn out to be one of the better defenses in the nation. Texas returned seven starters from last year’s unit that finished 2023 ranked third in the country against the run (82.4 ypg). The Longhorns weren’t as good against the pass (113th), but they still wound up 13th in scoring defense, holding opponents to 18.9 points per game.

This is a solid unit that added last year’s AAC Defensive Player of the Year, Trey Moore, from UTSA in the transfer portal. Moore was third in the country in sacks last year with 13. Last week against Colorado State, the Longhorns held two CSU quarterbacks to 13-of-24 passing for just 74 yards. As mentioned earlier, Texas gave up just 192 total yards.

Then, there is Ewers (20-for-27, 260 yards, 3 TDs) and the Texas offense. Backup QB Arch Manning got his first taste of college football, going 4-of-5 for 95 yards and a touchdown. In total, Texas threw for 355 yards and gained 190 more on the ground. 

Texas-Michigan Best Bet

It has long been said that college football teams improve the most from Week 1 to Week 2. That said, Michigan is not going to find the answer at quarterback in seven days. Davis Warren was adequate last week. Alex Orji…the same. Neither one of these two guys is JJ McCarthy. That means that Moore needs his running game to produce more than 148 rushing yards. 

What too many don’t realize is that all five of Michigan’s starting offensive linemen from a year ago are in the NFL. Zak Zinter, Trevor Keegan, and LaDarius Henderson were all draft picks. Karsen Barnhart and Drake Nugent signed free agent contracts and all five made an NFL roster.

That means the Wolverines had to start over up front. Now, those five have to go up against a very good and experienced Texas front seven. Michigan’s offense, minus the first drive, got off to a pretty slow start last week against Fresno State. Texas, on the other hand, led Colorado State 31-0 at halftime.

If you go back to last year, the Texas offense (which returned five starters from 2023), averaged nearly four touchdowns (27.3 ppg) in the first half of its final three games. They put up 31 in the first half last week. It may take a series or two, but look for Texas to have success against Michigan’s defense and for Michigan’s offense to struggle. 

Texas has won its last seven road games in a row. The Longhorns covered in four of their last five games (including Week 1 against Colorado State). Playing in Michigan Stadium won’t faze the Longhorns. With the first half spread at -4.5, the number favors Texas. Look for the Longhorns to start quickly.

Best Bet: Texas (1H) -4.5

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