Trends to Consider When Betting CFB in 2024

College football is upon us and before we hit Week 1, let’s take a look at some of the most intriguing trends in the sport. Looking for a solid winner in Week 1? Place any futures bets yet? Here are a few trends to keep in mind as you navigate the early weeks of the 2024 college football season.

How to Bet Favorites

Georgia is once again the favorite to win the College Football national championship. The Bulldogs are given +280 odds (BetUS.com) to win it all for the third time in four years. Over the last eight seasons, only three teams have started the season at No. 1 and as the overall CFP favorite – Georgia, Alabama, and Clemson.

Now, if you’re thinking about a win totals bet, here’s a good one for you. Since 2001, the team in the national championship favorite spot has recorded 10 or more wins in 22 of the 23 seasons. The average number of wins for the favorite? 11.7 (12.7 over the past ten seasons). Georgia’s win total is set at 10.5, which you can get at -135. 

P.S. The only team that didn’t post at least 10 wins after being the betting favorite to win the national championship was USC in 2012. The Trojans won seven. Since then, no favorite has ever lost more than three games. 

Take Me Home, Country Roads

Ahhh, John Denver. West Virginia’s finest. The Mountaineers of WVU will host Penn State this weekend. Head coach Neal Brown and West Virginia are 10.5-point underdogs at Sportsbetting.ag. That’s something that doesn’t happen too often in Morgantown. It’s only the eighth time since 2000 that West Virginia is a double-digit home underdog. 

The Mountaineers are 3-5 SU and ATS in those eight games. What’s interesting is that there is one coach in FBS who is more profitable against the spread in August and September since 2005 than all of the other 132 coaches. He is 32-17-2 ATS and a $100 bettor would be up over $1400 if he had bet on him and his team. That coach would be James Franklin. He, of course, is the Penn State head coach.

Having “Night”-mares? Bet the Under

Remember the Pac-12 After Dark? Yeah, that’s no more, but you what’s afraid of the dark? College football offenses. 

If you like betting NCAAF totals, consider checking out night games. You’ll want to look for games that start after 10:00 PM ET. Over the past decade, these late games lean toward the Under – 303-237-1 (56.1 percent). It’s even more pronounced over the past seven seasons. Since 2017, the Under in games starting at 10:00 PM ET or later is 202-148. That’s a solid 57.7 percent.

Ride the Trojan Underdogs

USC is a 4.5-point underdog against LSU (Everygame.eu) this weekend. The two teams play on Sunday night at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. What many might not know is that the Trojans do not do so well in the role of the underdog.

Head coach Lincoln Riley’s team was also a 4.5-point underdog when they played Louisville last year in the Holiday Bowl. The Trojans won behind six touchdown passes from backup quarterback Miller Moss. It was USC’s first win as an underdog since 2019.  The Trojans had lost 10 straight as an underdog.

Over the past ten years, USC has been absolutely atrocious as an underdog. Of all college football teams that have played at least 30 games as an underdog over the last decade, the Trojans have the worst ATS winning percentage. USC is 5-26 SU and 10-21 ATS in those games.

Not all is lost though. USC enters the 2024 season with a win total of 7.5. It’s only the fourth time since 2010 that the Trojans have a win total below 8. USC was pegged at 7.5 in 2011 and 2016 and at just 7 in 2019. The Trojans went Over in each case.

Thank You for Your Service

Bettors should check out the service academies – Air Force, Army, and Navy – this season. They are solid ATS bets later in the season. In August through October over the last decade, all three teams combined are one game over .500 ATS. However, in November and December, the three service academies are 86-57-2 ATS (60.1%). 

You will also want to pay attention to the Commander-in-Chief Trophy games. Navy and Air Force play the first Saturday in October. Army and Air Force get together on the first Saturday in November and, of course, the college football season ends with the biggest rivalry game of them all – Army-Navy.

Looking for a great bet this season? Over the past 20 college football seasons, the Under is 45-10-2. That’s 81.8 percent. The only thing better? In the last ten seasons, the Under is 26-3-1 (almost 90 percent!) in Commander-in-Chief games. 

Put Me on an Island

Most college football games are played on Saturdays. We do have Thursday night and Friday night college football throughout most of the regular season. As we hit November, we get some MAC-tion as well as some “Fun” Belt (Sun Belt) games on Tuesdays and Wednesdays.

Games not played on the traditional Saturday are sometimes referred to as “island” games. There is a trend with these island games, especially for teams from Power 4 conferences. Once again, the Under is the play in an island game where the Power conference team is playing at home. This trend is hitting at nearly 56 percent (210-167-6). 

The First Half Bet to Make

Josh Heupel has been a college head coach for six seasons. His first three were at UCF and his last three have been as the head coach at Tennessee. Heupel’s teams are well known for going pretty fast and for scoring a lot of points. Two seasons ago, the Vols led the NCAA in scoring.

Bettors might want to jump on the Heupel train and start making first half bets on Tennessee. Heupel’s teams get off to good starts and cover the first half spread more than any other in the FBS. In those six years, Heupel-coached teams are 40-17-2 ATS in the first half. A $100 bettor would be up over $1,900. Even better is Heupel’s first half cover rate on the road – 75.8 percent (22-7-1 ATS 1H). 

Bettors may also take a look at Tennessee’s win total. Right now, bettors can find the Vols at 8.5 (-180). There are sportsbooks that had Tennessee at 9 for the 2024 season. Over the last 15 seasons, the Vols have had a win total of 9 or more just twice (2016 & 2023). They went Under both times.