College Football Sleepers to make the 2024 CFP

The 2024 College Football Playoff market is alive and well. Fans and bettors alike are excited as college football delves into a new era. This year marks the first CFP with a 12-team field. That really opens up the field in the To Make the CFP odds market. Teams like No. 1 Georgia and No. 2 Ohio State are virtual locks. Both the Bulldogs and Buckeyes are given -650 odds to make this year’s playoffs. No. 3 Oregon is a -350 at BetUS.com favorite to make the postseason.

After those first five playoff bids, who’s left? Remember, the top five-ranked conference champions receive automatic bids to the College Football Playoff. The seven remaining teams are chosen by the CFP Selection Committee. The four highest-ranked conference champions get seeds No. 1 through No. 4 as well as a first-round playoff bye.

The remaining teams are seeded No. 5-No. 12. No. 5 plays No. 12 at the home of the higher-seeded team (or at a venue determined by the higher-seeded team). The remaining rounds are played as part of the existing bowl system and will play in the New Year’s Six (Rose, Cotton, Sugar, Orange, Fiesta, and Sugar) bowl games. 

This year’s quarterfinals will be played on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1. The Fiesta, Peach, Rose, and Sugar Bowls will play host. The CFP semifinals will take place on Jan. 9 and Jan. 10 at the Orange Bowl and Cotton Bowl, respectively. The national championship game is set for Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. 

The favorites for the CFP like Georgia, Ohio State, and Oregon are no surprise. But what about the sleepers? What about those true darkhorse candidates that could come out of nowhere and shock the nation with a playoff bid? Sit back and relax as we take a look at some strong longshots to make the 2024 College Football Playoff.

New Coach, No Problem

Jedd Fisch turned the Arizona football program around in a hurry. In just three seasons, the Wildcats went from 1-11 to 10-3 in 2023. Then, Fisch took the job at Washington when Kalen DeBoer jumped to Alabama. Enter Brent Brennan, former head coach at San Jose State. 

All Brennan did for the Spartans was turn them into a consistent winner. He’ll inherit QB Noah Fifita and WR Tetairoa McMillan, likely the best passing combination in the country. They have been teammates since the eighth grade. McMillan is a Biletnikoff Award candidate and could be the first receiver taken in next year’s draft. 

The defense was a top-20 scoring unit (21.1 ppg) and should be even better in 2024. Jacob Manu is a linebacker that is hard to ignore. He finished 2023 as the team leader in tackles and was second in sacks.

At +600 to make the CFP at BetOnline.ag, we’ll see how worthy the Wildcats are early on in the season. Arizona faces Kansas State and Utah on the road in back-to-back games in September. The Wildcats will have a week off after playing the Wildcats before taking on the Utes. Arizona doesn’t play Oklahoma State or Iowa State. Last year, the Wildcats beat Utah rather easily, 42-18.

Fresno State of Mind

It’s no secret that Boise State is the favorite to win the Mountain West Conference. But, if you’re looking for a longshot to throw some cash at, Fresno State at +1600 could make it worth your while. Mikey Keene is the best quarterback you’ve never heard of. He threw for 2,976 yards and 24 touchdowns last season and guided the Bulldogs to a 9-4 record. 

Fresno will have some adjustments to make. Head coach Jeff Tedford retired in midsummer. Tim Skipper takes over as the interim head coach. The defense is solid. The running game has Malik Sherrod who almost hit 1,000 yards last year and the schedule is advantageous. 

The Bulldogs play at Michigan to open the season and then avoid playing Boise State in the Mountain West regular season. With 14 returning starters, expectations are high and with a solid run to the conference championship, the Bulldogs could be the Group of 5 team that makes the 12-team playoff field. 

ACC Surprises

Florida State is the presumptive favorite to win the ACC this season. Clemson will provide some competition. The Seminoles are +150 to make the playoffs while the Tigers are given +190 odds at Sportsbetting.ag. But, there are a few other ACC teams that could surprise the rest of the conference on their way to a playoff berth.

The best of the bunch is Louisville. Jeff Brohm took over his alma mater last season and guided the Cardinals to the ACC title game. Louisville went 10-4 with a midseason upset loss to Pitt by three points and a season-ending rivalry loss to Kentucky by a touchdown. The Cardinals then lost a tough one to FSU in the ACC championship (16-6) as well as their bowl game.

Brohm brings back six starters on one of the best defenses in the conference. He’ll plug in Tyler Shough at quarterback to run the offense. The Cardinals don’t play the Seminoles in the regular season, but they do have to travel to Clemson and Notre Dame. Still, at +475, an 11-1 or 10-2 regular season could put the Cardinals right in the thick of the playoff race.

The other ACC teams that could make some noise are NC State (+500) and Virginia Tech (+900). The Hokies won five of their last seven games, including a bowl win over Tulane. Head coach Brent Key returns eight starters on offense, including QB Kyron Drones. He’s also got seven starters back on a defense that was fourth in the nation against the pass.

The Wolfpack won their last five regular season games and finished 9-4 in 2023. The defense was a top-30 unit in most categories. Head coach Dave Doeren gets former Coastal Carolina QB Grayson McCall to take over the offense. Like Louisville, NC State avoids Florida State in the regular season.

Anything Is Possible

Neal Brown had his best season at West Virginia last year. The Mountaineers went 9-4 and won their bowl game. Brown has seven starters back on offense, including QB Garrett Greene. His top two running backs – Jahiem White and CJ Donaldson – accounted for 1,570 yards and 24 touchdowns last year. They both return and six of the top seven receivers are back.

The defense returns five starters and the schedule is favorable. WVU gets Kansas, Kansas State, and Iowa State all at home. With some luck, the Mountaineers at +1200 could sneak into the CFP discussion late in the season.

In the Big Ten, all eyes are on Ohio State and Oregon. Even Michigan and Penn State are thought to be potential playoff teams from the conference. The one Big Ten team getting overlooked is Iowa.

The Hawkeyes have won 10 games in three of the past five seasons. Sure, the offense has been miserable, but the defense is among the best in the country. Head coach Kirk Ferentz hired former Western Michigan head coach Tim Lester as his offensive coordinator. Cade McNamara is back at quarterback after an injury sidelined him last year. 

Iowa doesn’t play Michigan, Penn State or Oregon. Ferentz has six starters back on both sides of the ball. You can count on the defense being solid. Iowa was top-7 in passing defense, total defense, and scoring defense last season. Even if the offense is just a little bit better, watch out for the Hawkeyes (+600) come playoff time.