2024 NFC West Preview – Odds and Sleeper Pick

Scott Morris | August 19, 2024

The NFC West has been owned by the San Francisco 49ers for the past two seasons. The bigger question for Niners fans is if head coach Kyle Shanahan can bring home a Super Bowl. Shanahan was the offensive coordinator in Atlanta when the Falcons blew a 28-3 lead and lost in Super Bowl LI. In two Super Bowls with San Francisco, Shanahan has also blown double-digit leads and lost twice. Is this the year the 49ers get over the hump?

The Los Angeles Rams will look to get back to the postseason after winning six of their last seven games in 2023 to earn a wild card. The defense will look a lot different after the offseason retirement of three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald. Matthew Stafford is back to lead an offense that needs WR Cooper Kupp to stay healthy. Kupp was limited to 12 games last year.

The NFC West will have some new faces in 2024. Gone is long-time Seattle head coach Pete Carroll, who moves into a front office job. Carroll is the only Seahawks coach to ever win a Super Bowl. Replacing him will be former Baltimore defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald. You can bet the Seahawks defense will continue to shine. Geno Smith returns to run the offense, but Seattle needs to figure out how to run the football. The Seahawks were 28th in rushing offense in 2023.

The Cardinals added WR Marvin Harrison Jr. in the draft to give QB Kyler Murray a true No. 1 wide receiver. Arizona can run the football. RB James Conner went over 1,000 yards last season and the Cardinals finished fourth in the NFL in rushing (139.1 ypg). The defense will need to step up if Arizona is going to come anywhere close to a postseason berth. The Cardinals used the draft – six of 12 picks – to build the defense.

Who Will Win the NFC West in 2024?

There is a reason why San Francisco is a -200 favorite to win the NFC West in 2024. They’ve got the best offense and the best defense in the division and possibly in the entire NFL. The Niners ranked in the top four in rushing (140.5 ypg), passing (257.9 ypg), total (398.4 ypg), and scoring offense (28.9 ppg) last season. The defense was eighth in total defense (303.9 ypg) and third against the run (89.7 ypg) and in scoring (17.5 ppg).

Shanahan and company have won the last two division titles and they have posted double-digit win totals in four of the past five seasons. The roster is strong and there wasn’t a lot of turnover in the offseason. The 49ers lost DT Arik Armstead but gained DE Leonard Floyd to pair alongside pass-rushing specialist Nick Bosa.

San Francisco has gone 11-1 against the division over the past two seasons. The one loss was to the Rams in Week 18 last year. The 49ers already had the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs and didn’t play most of their starters. They ended up losing 21-20 with Sam Darnold at quarterback. Until another NFC West team can stand up to San Francisco, the NFC West belongs to the 49ers. One of our guys have picked SF to win the Super Bowl.

Top Contenders

Can Stafford and Rams win the NFC West? Since Sean McVay took over as the Rams head coach in 2017, Los Angeles has produced five double-digit win totals in seven seasons. One of those came last season (10-7) as the Rams finished in second place in the division and earned a wild card. Los Angeles has made the postseason five times in McVay’s tenure and played in two Super Bowls. They lost Super Bowl LIII to New England and won Super Bowl LVI against Cincinnati.

QB Matthew Stafford has been the guiding force for LA. He has played for the Rams for three seasons. In 2021, his first season, Stafford guided the Rams to a 12-5 record and the NFC West title. In 2022, he was hurt and limited to nine games. The Rams went 5-12 and failed to make the playoffs.

Last season, a healthy Stafford threw for 3,965 yards and 24 touchdowns, leading the Rams to a 10-7 finish. Stafford lost to his former team, Detroit, 24-23 in the wild card playoffs. If there is a team that can challenge the Niners in the NFC West, it is Los Angeles (+320). The Rams are built similarly to San Francisco, though LA will have to replace Donald on a defense that was pretty average last season.

Who Will Make the Playoffs?

The NFC South is arguably the weakest division in the conference. That said, it will most likely only get one entrant – it’s division champ – in the NFC playoffs this year. That leaves opportunity for at least two teams in the NFC West. The 49ers and Rams both made it last year and the Rams have made the postseason in three of the last four seasons. The Niners have qualified in each of the last three.

Seattle has a new head coach and the Cardinals are still building in head coach Jonathan Gannon’s second season. Both teams are longshots to win anything. Seattle (+750) has a win total targeted at 7.5 this season. Arizona’s (+1200) win total is 6.5. That leaves the 49ers (-550 to make the playoffs) and Rams (-115) to battle it out for the division and likely both return to the postseason.

The NFC West Sleeper

If there is a sleeper in the NFC West, it would have to be Seattle. No one is expecting much from the Seahawks who went 9-8 last year in Carroll’s final season. Macdonald takes over as a first-time head coach. He’s never been a head coach at any level, but he has spent a good deal of time as an elite NFL defensive coordinator.

It’s a stretch, but if Seattle improves defensively and Geno Smith gets back to his 2022 form, the Seahawks could be the surprise of not just the NFC West, but the entire NFL. Smith will have one of the best receiver trios in football with DK Metcalf (66-1,114), Tyler Lockett (79-894), and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (63-628). If the Seahawks figure out how to run the ball, they could be dangerous.