2024 NFC South Preview – Odds and Sleeper Pick

Scott Morris | August 16, 2024

For the last seven seasons, two franchises have owned the NFC South. That would be Tampa Bay, winners of the last three division titles, and the New Orleans Saints who captured four in a row from 2017 to 2020. Will 2024 be a changing of the guard in the NFC South? A risky quarterback addition in free agency puts all eyes on the Atlanta Falcons in 2024.

The Falcons went out and snagged former Vikings QB Kirk Cousins, who missed most of last season with an Achilles injury. Cousins, who will begin his 13th NFL season, has proven himself time and again. He will have a stable of resources to work with in the Atlanta offense. Wide receivers Drake London and Rondale Moore along with TE Kyle Pitts should make the Falcons offense something to watch in 2024.

Tampa Bay is the three-time defending division champ and the Bucs should be right in the thick of the NFC South race in 2024. QB Baker Mayfield was outstanding last season, passing for 4,044 yards and 28 touchdowns leading the Bucs to a 9-8 record. He also led Tampa Bay to a huge 32-9 playoff upset of Philadelphia in the wild card round.

New Orleans also finished 9-8 last season but failed to make the postseason. Head coach Dennis Allen is 16-18 with the Saints and he is on the hot seat. Failing to make the playoffs this year will likely send him packing. He’ll still have veteran QB Derek Carr leading a top-10 scoring offense. The Saints defense adds DE Chase Young to unit that allowed 19.2 points a game last year (8th).

The only NFC South team out of the race from the start is Carolina. The Panthers will have a new head coach in Dave Canales who was Tampa Bay’s offensive coordinator last season. Second-year QB Bryce Young had a rough go in Year 1 and the Panthers offense was abysmal in 2023. The defense wasn’t all that bad, but the Panthers are still a few years away from being competitive.

Who Will Win the NFC South in 2024?

While the Falcons are a -130 favorite to win the NFC South this year, this division still belongs to Tampa Bay. Atlanta hasn’t had a winning season since 2017. The Falcons have gone 7-10 three seasons in a row. Yes, Cousins will make the offense much better, but will the defense hold up?

The big benefit for Atlanta is the schedule. The Falcons have the easiest schedule among all NFL teams in 2024. The NFC South is not one of the stronger divisions in football. Six games against Carolina, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay is not the same as playing in the AFC North.

The Falcons also get the luxury of crossing over against the AFC West. While that does mean a game against the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs, it also means games against the Broncos, Chargers, and Raiders. Atlanta plays the NFC East, which means games against Washington and the New York Giants. The Falcons also get nine home games.

Still, there is a strong case to make for Tampa Bay (+320). The running game needs to improve, but Mayfield just wins. The pass defense needs to be better. The Bucs added S Jordan Whitehead in the offseason. Like Atlanta, Tampa Bay will benefit from one of the weaker schedules in the NFL. The Bucs will play the NFC East and AFC West too and will also have nine home games.

Top Contenders

The Falcons and Bucs should make the NFC South a two-team race this season. However, you can’t count the New Orleans Saints out of the picture. The Panthers are definitely out. Since Cam Newton started every game for Carolina in 2017, the Panthers have gone through nine quarterbacks in six seasons. Canales is a first-year NFL head coach, so don’t expect Carolina to suddenly light the league on fire.

The Saints, though, have a history of winning the NFC South with those four straight titles from 2017 to 2020. They were close last season with a 9-8 record. The running game must improve and Allen hired new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak to do just that. Even with a subpar rushing offense, the Saints still managed to finish ninth in the NFL in scoring last season.

The New Orleans defense was solid all around. The Saints ended up eighth in the NFL in scoring defense. They tied for third in interceptions (18), but they lacked in the sack department. The offseason addition of Young, who had a total of 7.5 sacks last year, should help. Like the other teams in the division, the Saints will have a softer schedule which gives their +370 odds some value.

NFC South Teams in the Playoffs

Over the last 10 seasons, there has been only one in which more than one team from the NFC South made the postseason. That was in 2020 when New Orleans won the division and Tampa Bay qualified as a wild card. The Bucs went 11-5 and then marched through the postseason with Tom Brady at quarterback and won the Super Bowl.

In the other nine seasons, only one NFC South team has made the postseason. Most experts believe the division is the weakest in the NFL. Tampa Bay won the last two division titles with 9 and 8 wins. Expect another battle in 2024 with the division winner making the postseason and everyone else staying home.

The NFC South Sleeper

Derrick Carr The addition of Cousins makes the Falcons the division favorite. The Bucs have won the last three straight NFC South titles and even New Orleans has had success over the past several seasons. Carolina just isn’t a factor yet, making a sleeper hard to find in this division.

If there is a team that could win it that isn’t expected to, it’s New Orleans. The Saints have been middling around .500 for the past three seasons. A new offense could perk things up and the defense has been good for several years. The Saints schedule is manageable and a season-ending date at Tampa Bay could be a de facto NFC South championship game.

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