2024 NFC North Preview – Division Odds- Sleeper Pick
Scott Morris | August 14, 2024
For the first time in a long time (31 years to be exact), the Detroit Lions can call themselves reigning NFC division champions. The Lions finished 12-5 last year to win the NFC North. It was a surprise to some, but head coach Dan Campbell has built the franchise from the ground up. Detroit addressed some defensive issues prior to the 2023 season and added cornerback depth with this year’s draft. The Lions open 2024 as the favorite to repeat as division champions.
The Green Bay Packers are no stranger to repeat division titles. They’ve done it numerous times, most recently between 2019 and 2021. Interestingly, all four NFC North teams have won at least one division title since 2018. The Packers will likely be the Lions biggest threat in 2024. QB Jordan Love had his breakout season in 2023.
Love passed for 4,159 yards and 32 touchdowns while leading Green Bay to a 9-8 record and a wild card playoff berth. Then, Love and the Packers smoked the Dallas Cowboys 48-32 in the first round of the playoffs before bowing out to eventual NFC champion San Francisco.
Both Chicago and Minnesota will start the season with new quarterbacks. Justin Fields was traded to Pittsburgh and the Bears selected former USC quarterback Caleb Williams with the first pick in the 2024 draft. Minnesota took former Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy with the 10th pick in this year’s draft. Rookie quarterbacks and winning divisions typically don’t go together. More on that in a minute.
Who Will Win the NFC North in 2024?
Detroit is a +140 favorite to win a second consecutive NFC North title. The Lions return the bulk of their roster from a year ago with some nice additions. They also return most of their coaching staff, which helps from a continuity perspective. Jared Goff returns at quarterback to lead a top-5 offense from a year ago.
Detroit had the second-best passing offense (258.9 ypg), fifth-best rushing offense (135.9 ypg), third-best total offense (394.8), and fifth-best scoring offense averaging 27.1 points per game. WR Amon-Re St. Brown (1,515 yds., 10 TDs) returns as does 1,000-yard rusher David Montgomery (1,015, 13 TDs). Jahmyr Gibbs just missed the 1,000-yard mark (945) and added 10 touchdowns. The Lions will be explosive once again.
The defense was improved in 2023. In fact, the Lions had the second-best run defense (88.8 ypg) in the NFL. The additions of Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw should strengthen the corners and Aidan Hutchinson returns to wreak havoc on opposing quarterbacks. Expectations are high in Detroit and the Lions have the capability to meet those expectations.
Top Contenders
As mentioned, the Packers are the one NFC North team that can challenge Detroit for division supremacy. Love has emerged as a star and the offense adds RB Josh Jacobs from the Raiders. The receiving room stays pretty much the same. Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs each had eight touchdown catches last season.
The big question is the defense. Former Boston College head coach Jeff Hafley takes over the Packers defense. Xavier McKinney (116 tackles, 3 INT) comes over from the Giants to man one of the safety spots. He’ll make a difference. Green Bay lost five games last year by four points or less. Remember, the Packers had the NFL’s youngest roster a year ago. Those young players are now a year older.
Who Will Make the Playoffs?
With three wild card teams in each conference, it usually works out that three divisions get two teams in the postseason and one gets a single team. Last season, the division in the NFC that produced one playoff team was the South. That division appears to be the weakest once again.
The NFC North appears to be a two-team race, for the most part, between Detroit and Green Bay. With rookie quarterbacks running the show, Chicago and Minnesota are probably at least a year away from any sort of success. It may be even longer for the Vikings, who just announced that McCarthy will undergo surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his knee. Veteran backup Sam Darnold will start the season under center for the Vikings.
That leaves the Lions and Packers, who each made the postseason last year. The only issue for Detroit is they must play a first-place schedule. That means road games at San Francisco and Houston and a home game against the Buffalo Bills. Still, the Lions went 4-2 in the division last year and they do get nine home games in 2024.
Green Bay is in pretty much the same boat. Detroit’s schedule ranks No. 19 and Green Bay’s is 20th. The Packers play the Dolphins, Texans, and 49ers, but they are all at Lambeau Field. Green Bay plays Philly in the first-ever game in Brazil in Week 1. Both the Packers and Lions should finish well above .500 and make the postseason.
The NFC North Sleeper
It’s essentially a two-team race in the NFC North in 2024. The Bears are given +300 odds at sportsbooks, which seem like a stretch for a team that will start a young rookie quarterback. Houston’s C.J. Stroud led the Texans to a division title and a playoff win last season. Unfortunately for the Bears, they don’t play in the AFC South.
Chicago hasn’t won more than two division games in each of the past four seasons. The Bears are 6-18 overall against their NFC North rivals since 2020. That leaves the one team that could surprise everyone in 2024.
We now know that McCarthy will miss the first part of the regular season. That might not be a bad thing. The Vikings have arguably the best receiver in the NFL in Justin Jefferson. Darnold is a capable backup and the Minnesota defense was a top-10 unit against the run last season. The Vikings ended last season with QB Kirk Cousins on injured reserve and with four straight losses in their final four games. Two of the defeats were to Detroit.
It will be a tough go for Minnesota, especially early. They play the 49ers, Texans, Packers, and Jets in the first five weeks. There’s a bye in Week 6. That might give McCarthy enough time to lead the Vikings to a surprising finish down the stretch.
2024 NFC North Odds to Win Division
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- Detroit Lions +140
- Green Bay Packers +200
- Chicago Bears +300
- Minnesota Vikings +800
NFL Division Previews – Odds – Sleeper Picks
