2024 AFC West Preview – Division Odds – Sleeper Pick
Scott Morris | August 12, 2024
They have won the last two Super Bowls and the last eight AFC West Division crowns. The Kansas City roster hasn’t changed all that much which is why the Chiefs are an overwhelming -250 favorite to win a ninth division title. Kansas City’s regular season win total was its lowest in 2023 since 2017 when they went 10-6.
No other AFC West team finished with a winning record last season. Las Vegas and Denver each finished 8-9 and the Chargers wound up a disappointing 5-12. After an embarrassing 63-21 loss to the Raiders in prime time, head coach Brandon Staley was fired. The Bolts finished the season with interim head coach Giff Smith and wound up 5-12. Los Angeles went on to hire Jim Harbaugh, fresh off a national championship with the University of Michigan.
The Las Vegas Raiders also have a new head coach. Antonio Pierce went from interim head coach to full-time head coach for the Raiders this offseason. Josh McDaniels was fired on Oct. 31 last season and Pierce took over on an interim basis. The Raiders finished 5-4 and just missed the postseason with a loss in the final week of regular season play.
Sean Payton is back for his second season in Denver. The Broncos lost three of their last four games then proceeded to watch Russell Wilson leave for Pittsburgh in the offseason. Payton’s first job in the offseason was to find Wilson’s replacement. First-round draft pick Bo Nix wasn’t selected at No. 12 to sit on the bench. Nix will likely become the starter sooner rather than later this season. Will Denver, Las Vegas, or Los Angeles have what it takes to take the AFC West crown away from the Chiefs?
Who Will Win the AFC West in 2024?
As long as Andy Reid is the Chiefs head coach and has a quarterback named Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City will always be the favorite to win the AFC West. Over the last eight seasons, the Chiefs have ruled the West. Kansas City is 41-7 in division games over that span. Until one of the other teams in the division can step up, the Chiefs will continue to rule the roost in the AFC West.
There is really no reason to think that the Chiefs would finish anywhere other than first in the division this season. After winning a second consecutive Super Bowl, one would think Kansas City would play a much tougher schedule. That’s not the case. The Chiefs 2024 schedule ranks as the ninth-easiest in the NFL.
Part of the reason why is six games against the Broncos, Chargers, and Raiders. The Chiefs will play the AFC North, which will be a huge challenge. Kansas City opens the season at home against Baltimore in a rematch of the AFC championship game. The Chiefs also crossover to play all four teams in the NFC South, arguably the weakest division in the NFL.
Top Contenders
The Chiefs proved beatable last season. After a 6-1 start, Kansas City lost five of its next eight games. Two of the losses were in the division, a 24-9 defeat at Denver and a 20-14 loss to the Raiders on Christmas Day. Still, identifying a true contender to challenge the Chiefs for supremacy in the AFC West is a tough one.
The other three division teams have not had much success over the past few seasons. Denver is given just +1800 odds to win the AFC West this season. The Raiders check in at +900 at sportsbooks and, if there is a division opponent to consider, maybe it’s the Los Angeles Chargers.
It will be the first season under new head coach Jim Harbaugh. Could he have an inaugural season like he did with the 49ers back in 2011? San Francisco went 13-3 in Harbaugh’s first season in the Bay area. That came after a 6-10 campaign the year before. It’s a possibility as the Chargers are listed at +350 and have the second-easiest schedule in the NFL in 2024.
Who Will Make the Playoffs?
The Chiefs are a given. Denver hasn’t made the postseason since 2015. Since then, the Chargers and Raiders have each been to the playoffs twice. Los Angeles qualified for the postseason in 2018 and 2022. Las Vegas made it in 2016 and 2021.
This season? The Broncos will probably start a rookie quarterback for the majority of the season. We all know how that is going to go. It’s hard to see a Raiders team quarterbacked by either Aidan O’Connell or Gardner Minshew as a playoff team. That leaves the Chargers. As you may know, Jimmy Garrapolo is no longer with the Raiders. He is now a backup with the Rams.
Harbaugh will make a difference. He also has a quarterback that is pretty close to elite among NFL signal callers. However, the Chargers offensive line is a mess and the defense needs plenty of work. LA is at least a year out from being a contender. That leaves the Chiefs as, once again, the only team from the AFC West in the postseason.
The AFC West Sleeper
The only scenario where the Chiefs don’t win the AFC West is one in which Mahomes misses several games due to injury. There really isn’t a team that is going to sneak up and somehow overtake Kansas City in the division. It’s definitely not the Broncos, who will take another year to find out their quarterback of the future.
The Raiders aren’t surprising anyone with “the Stache” Minshew or fourth-round draft pick O’Connell at quarterback. Running back Josh Jacobs is gone too, leaving the Chargers as the potential sleeper. Harbaugh will surely have an impact on LA, but it just won’t be enough to unseat a two-time defending Super Bowl champion.
2024 AFC West Odds to Win Division
Odds can be found and bet at BetUS.com
- Kansas City Chiefs -250
- Los Angeles Chargers +350
- Las Vegas Raiders +900
- Denver Broncos +1800
NFL Division Previews – Odds – Sleeper Picks
