2024 AFC South Preview – Betting Odds – Sleeper Pick

Scott Morris | August 11, 2024

Coming off one of the best rookie seasons in recent memory, C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans face some pretty high expectations in 2024. With a first-year head coach in DeMeco Ryans and Stroud at quarterback, the Texans went 10-7, captured the AFC South crown and earned the playoff berth that came with it.

Houston would beat Cleveland in the wild card round before exiting the playoffs in a 34-10 loss to NFL MVP Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. Ryans and Houston want an encore performance in 2024. The Texans went out and made the receiver room better with the addition of Stefon Diggs, formerly of Buffalo. Four-time 1,000-yard rusher Joe Mixon is now in the Houston backfield to take some pressure off of Stroud.

Don’t forget about the rest of the division. Trevor Lawrence just signed a new contract in the offseason. The Jaguars should have one of the more talented offenses in the NFL. Speaking of talent, what about the Colts? Indianapolis will return QB Anthony Richardson, who would have rivaled Stroud for the Rookie of the Year award last season.

The only AFC South team out of the mix is Tennessee. The Titans moved on from head coach Mike Vrable. Brian Callahan takes over and he’ll have young Will Levis to run the offense. Gone is All-Pro RB Derrick Henry and the offensive line needs to be better in 2024, especially with a young quarterback.

Who Will Win the AFC South in 2024?

Houston is an even-money favorite to win the division for a second consecutive season. In addition to Stroud (4,108 passing yards, 23 TDs) and the Houston offense, the defense was solid. The Texans were 11th in scoring defense (20.8 ppg) and were very good against the run (96.6 ypg, 6th). That helped Houston go 4-2 against the division last season.

The issue for backing Houston to win the AFC South in 2024 is the schedule. The Texans had one of the easiest schedules in 2023. Now, they will play a first-place schedule. That means games against five division winners, seven playoff teams, and 11 of 17 games against teams with a winning record in 2023. Even if you don’t like comparing to last season, consider the quarterbacks the Texans will face in 2024. The list includes: Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa, and more.

Top Contenders

Houston will also have to face Lawrence twice. T-Law signed a five-year, $275 million contract extension in the offseason. That deal includes $200 million in guaranteed money. Lawrence threw for 4,016 yards but only 21 touchdowns last season.

The Texans will also face another up-and-coming quarterback twice – Richardson. If the Colts quarterback can stay healthy, Indianapolis is a legitimate threat to the AFC South crown. The Colts came within one drive of making the playoffs last season in head coach Shane Steichen’s first season. Indy is given +325 odds to win the division, right behind Jacksonville’s +270.

Who Will Make the Playoffs?

The Titans have gone 7-10 and 6-11 in the last two seasons. At +950 odds to win the division, it is highly unlikely Tennessee will be part of the playoff discussion at all in 2024. The other three teams? Well, all have potential.

Houston won the division last year and both Jacksonville and Indianapolis finished 9-8. The problem for the AFC South is the quality of the rest of the conference. There will be a three-team race for the AFC East and a three-team race (if not a four-team race) for the AFC North. The Chiefs should post double-digit wins once again in the AFC West and one of the Broncos, Raiders, or Chargers could be a surprise.

You have to go back to the 2020 COVID season to find the last time that two AFC South teams made the postseason. Tennessee and Indianapolis finished with identical 11-5 records. The Titans won the tiebreaker and the division title that year. Two teams from the AFC South in 2024 is highly unlikely.

The AFC South Sleeper

Anthony Richardson QB Colts All eyes are on Stroud and even Lawrence with his new contract. The guy that gets overlooked is Richardson. Through three-plus games before his injury, Richardson was just about ready to explode. He had four total touchdowns and was averaging 5.4 yards per carry. You can bet Steichen and offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter have been busy dreaming up ways for Richardson to attack opposing defenses.

Jonathan Taylor returns at running back. Indy drafted former Texas WR Adonai Mitchell to pair with Michael Pittman Jr. and the offensive line remains pretty much intact. The Colts defense ranked fifth in sacks with 51 and Kwity Paye (8.5) returns.

The big reason to consider the Colts as the AFC South sleeper is the schedule. Indy has the eighth-easiest schedule in the NFL in 2024. They play seven road games against teams that did not make last year’s playoffs. The Colts toughest games – Miami, Pittsburgh, Detroit, and Buffalo – are all at home.