2024 AFC North Preview – Division Odds and Sleeper Pick

Scott Morris | August 9, 2024

You know your division is pretty strong when all four teams finish with a winning record and three of them make the playoffs. Last year’s AFC North was won by Baltimore (13-4) and both Cleveland (11-6) and Pittsburgh (10-7) followed the Ravens into the postseason as wild cards. Only 9-8 Cincinnati failed to make the playoffs and that may have been different with a healthy Joe Burrow at quarterback.

The Ravens and reigning NFL MVP Lamar Jackson are once again the favorites to win the division. Baltimore (+140) won its third division title in the last six seasons last year, dethroning the two-time champion Bengals (2021-22). Burrow suffered a torn ligament in his right wrist in November and missed the remainder of the season. Jake Browning took over with seven games to go and went 4-3.

Cleveland figured out its quarterback situation by signing veteran Joe Flacco. The Browns won four of their last five games to finish second in the division. Flacco is gone, but Jameis Winston steps in as the new backup to Deshaun Watson who should be healthy and ready to go to start 2024.

The Browns have two 11-win seasons under head coach Kevin Stefanski and made the playoffs in both of those seasons. Pittsburgh once again avoided a losing season with three straight wins to close the season. The Steelers will have a new quarterback and a new offense in 2024. Will they get back to the playoffs? Will the AFC North be the toughest division in football once again?

Who Will Win the AFC North in 2024?

The Ravens will make a couple changes to what was the best scoring defense in the NFL. Baltimore allowed just 16.5 points per game last year, but they lose LB Patrick Queen and DE Jadeveon Clowney. Still, head coach John Harbaugh will have the makings of another elite NFL defense in 2024. The draft netted the Ravens CB Nate Wiggins and LB Adisa Isaac.

The Baltimore offense got an offseason boost with the addition of RB Derrick Henry, who was the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year in 2020 and a four-time Pro Bowler. The Ravens led the NFL in rushing last season with 156.5 yards per game. The running game figures to be even better in 2024. That should help Jackson and the passing game.

A healthy Burrow makes the Bengals (+160 at top sportsbooks) a threat to win the division this season. Baltimore won both games against Cincinnati last season and has won eight of the last 12 in the series. The Bengals actually had the worst division record last season at 1-5. Baltimore was just 3-3 and the Steelers went 5-1 in AFC North play.

Top Contenders

The leading contender in the AFC North, of course, is Cincinnati. The Bengals will need their defense to come through if they are going to challenge Baltimore for the division. Cincinnati ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in a number of defensive categories, including total defense and pass defense.

With Burrow running the offense though, the Bengals are tough to beat. If you take out his rookie season (that one was cut short by a knee injury), the Bengals are 27-15-1 with Burrow as the starting quarterback. He has had his share of difficulties in the division. Burrow is 7-12 in games against Baltimore, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh.

Don’t count out the Browns (+550) or the Steelers (+700). Both teams play great defense and the offenses should be better in 2024. Watson returns to lead Cleveland’s offense and Pittsburgh has Russell Wilson and Justin Fields to operate new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith’s offense.

AFC North in the Playoffs

Like last year, don’t be surprised if the AFC North gets three teams in the postseason. The bigger question would be, which three? With a healthy Burrow, the Bengals should fare pretty well in 2024 even if they get beat up by their divisional opponents.

Cincinnati has the fourth-easiest schedule in the NFL this season. They will play five prime-time games, including Thursday night games against Baltimore and Cleveland. On the other end of the schedule-strength scale are the other three AFC north teams.

Cleveland has the most difficult schedule. The Browns have the fourth-toughest schedule in the NFL. In addition to six games against the division, Cleveland will face reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City as well as playoff teams like Miami, Dallas, and Philadelphia.

Pittsburgh comes in right behind the Browns with the fifth-hardest schedule. Baltimore has the ninth-most difficult schedule in 2024. Which one of the four AFC North teams would be left out if three make the playoffs? That’s a tough call. A number of factors will influence that result, especially injuries. That’s what kept Cincinnati out of the postseason in 2023.

AFC North Sleeper

Mike Tomlin and steelers With all eyes on Baltimore to win the division and Burrow and the Bengals to challenge, the Pittsburgh Steelers get lost in the shuffle. Most expect the Browns to push double-digits wins again in 2024, but with the changes in Pittsburgh, the Steelers have the longest odds to win the division.

It was the case last year too, and Tomlin and company responded with a 10-7 record and a wild-card berth. With Wilson likely QB1 to start the season, a resurrection of sorts could occur in Smith’s offense. Fields will probably see the field too, and Smith will take advantage of his ability to run. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren return behind a more experienced offensive line. The Steelers defense is always stout and Tomlin has somehow figured out a way to avoid a losing season in 17 years as Pittsburgh’s head coach. Don’t forget, the Steelers went 5-1 in the division last season. Whatever the case, it will be a fun team to watch with all the dynamics at play. The QB situation, the coach, and the defensive monsters of the midway will make for an entertaining storyline.