2024 AAC Football Preview Odds & Sleeper Pick

Scott Morris | July 29, 2024

The American Athletic Conference may be the strongest of all Group of 5 conferences. Since 2014, the AAC has earned seven of the 10 New Year’s Six bowl bids. It’s entirely possible the conference earns another shot at a major bowl game or even a College Football Playoff berth in 2024. The AAC does, however, lose its top team

SMU, the 2024 AAC conference champion, has packed up and left for the ACC. The conference underwent drastic changes last year – three schools (Cincinnati, UCF, and Houston) left for the Big 12 and six new members were added. This year, with SMU gone, the AAC adds Army as a football-only member.

The 14-team conference has scrapped the division format, as many conferences around the country have done. The top two teams at the end of the regular season will play each other for the conference championship. That game will take place on Friday, Dec. 6, at 8:00 p.m. at a site to be determined.

Who Wins the AAC in 2024?

There are four teams headed into the 2024 college football season with +1000 odds or better to win the AAC title. It all begins with Memphis (+225). Head coach Ryan Silverfield will have six starters back on an offense that averaged 39.4 points a game last season. That total ranked sixth in the NCAA.

Leading the charge will be QB Seth Henigan who returns for his third season as the Tigers’ starter. Henigan won the AAC MVP last year and he’ll have wide receivers Roc Taylor (69-1,083) and Demeer Blankumsee (53-901) back this year. RB Mario Anderson transferred from South Carolina and he’ll give Silverfield a legitimate running threat.

The Memphis defense will need to improve. The Tigers allowed 28.8 points per game last season. That ranked 92nd nationally. Leading tackler Chandler Martin (95 tackles) is back among four defensive starters.

Memphis will be tested early. The Tigers play at Florida State on Sept. 14. They also get their top two challengers – South Florida and Tulane – on the road this season. The Tigers offense is special and if the defense can improve just a little, Memphis has a great shot at a New Year’s Six bowl and possibly a CFP berth.

The Contenders

As mentioned, Tulane (+350) is one of the Tigers biggest threats in 2024. The Green Wave will have a new coach after Willie Fritz left to take the job at Houston. Jon Sumrall takes over after two seasons and a 23-4 record at Troy. He’ll have six offensive starters and five on defense returning. Tulane will break in a new quarterback, Ty Thompson, an Oregon transfer and they get WR Mario Williams from USC.

UTSA (+550 at BetOnline) has enjoyed a great run under head coach Jeff Traylor. After two straight Conference USA titles, the Roadrunners went 9-4 last season. Twelve starters are back, but it will be the first season since 2017 that QB Frank Harris won’t be around. Colorado transfer Owen McCown takes over as Traylor reloads in 2024.

South Florida experienced a turnaround in Year 1 of the Alex Golesh era. The Bulls went 7-6, winning a bowl game for the first time since 2016. Golesh has nine starters back on offense, including QB Byrum Brown (3.292 passing, 809 rushing) who totaled over 4,000 yards. The defense returns eight starters. Golesh’s Bulls are given +600 odds to win the conference title.

Best of the Rest

If there are any other AAC teams that could make a splash in 2024, look to the two service academies. Navy (+2500) went 5-7 last season and they will have somewhat of a new-look offense in 2024. Offensive coordinator Drew Cronic, former head coach at FCS Mercer, steps in with his modern version of the Wing-T. It should catch teams off guard and the Navy defense returns seven starters.

Army went 6-6 last year and returns QB Bryson Daily to run the Black Knights triple option offense. The Knights were seventh last season in the nation in rushing. Head coach Jeff Monken’s team won four straight to close the 2023 season and that momentum could carry Army (+2200) to the top of the AAC standings.

Make the Playoffs?

The one shot for the AAC to get to the first 12-team playoff in college football is Memphis. The Tigers are built for a championship run. A loss at Florida State in early September is expected. If Memphis runs the table from there, they would finish the regular season 11-1. A win in the conference title game makes them 12-1 and if they are one of the five-highest ranked conference champions, they are in.

With a non-conference schedule that includes North Alabama and Troy in addition to FSU, Memphis will likely need strong seasons from Tulane, UTSA, and South Florida to provide a boost. The Tigers have the best odds (+600) to make the playoffs of any AAC team. Tulane is next at +1100 at Sportsbetting.ag. The Green Wave play Kansas State at home and then at Oklahoma in early September. If Tulane could run the table, they would surely be in the mix for a playoff berth.

The AAC Sleeper

Rice Owls football odds 2024 Rice only returns three starters on offense, but they are all offensive linemen and they’ll get a Georgia transfer (Chad Lindberg) to fill one of the two open spots. QB E.J. Warner will take over the AAC’s best passing offense. RB Dean Connors is one of the most explosive players in the conference. He had 1,189 all-purpose yards and 10 touchdowns in 2023.

The Owls defense returns more production than any other team in the AAC. Seven starters return to a defense that finished among the top-50 against the pass and in total defense. The schedule starts with Sam Houston and FCS Texas Southern and the Owls get UTSA and South Florida at home. Head coach Mike Bloomgren has taken Rice to back-to-back bowl games. The Owls (+1200) could be ready for the next step.