2024 Big Ten Football Preview – Odds and Sleeper Pick

Scott Morris | July 24, 2024

The Big Ten will look extremely different in 2024. The conference adds four new teams, all coming from the Pac-12. USC and UCLA started the exodus from the west and Washington and Oregon followed. That brings the Big Ten to a total of 18 teams and gives the conference a national footprint.

The conference also has the reigning national champion, Michigan, though the Wolverines will look much different this fall. It starts at the top where Jim Harbaugh, who led his alma mater to the ultimate prize last season, is now the head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers. Sherrone Moore takes over as the new head coach.

Michigan’s biggest rival, Ohio State, is among the favorites not only to win the conference, but to win this year’s national championship. The Buckeyes return a ton of talent, though they will have a new quarterback. Ohio State also has a new offensive coordinator – Chip Kelly. Yes, that Chip Kelly. The former Oregon and UCLA head coach will call the offense for the Buckeyes this season.

The Big Ten may also have a shot at claiming another Heisman Trophy. The conference has 18 Heisman winners in its history, but has not had a player win the award since 2006. That’s when Ohio State QB Troy Smith won it. New Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel is among the contenders to win the Heisman in 2024. Let’s look at the contenders to win the Big Ten this season.

Who Wins the Big Ten in 2024?

Michigan won the last three straight Big Ten titles. Winning a fourth straight is not out of the question, but it is highly unlikely. As mentioned, Harbaugh is off to the NFL and the Wolverines return exactly one offensive starter. QB J.J. McCarthy was a first-round draft pick and the entire offensive line will be new. There are only three returning defensive starters.

Ohio State is the favorite to win the conference. The Buckeyes are given +150 odds to dethrone their rivals as champions at BetUS.com. Head coach Ryan Day returns a ton of talent. He has six returning starters on each side of the ball. RB TreVeyon Henderson (926 yds., 11 TDs) and transfer Quinshon Judkins (two-time All-SEC at Ole Miss) make up the best running back tandem in the country.

The Buckeyes will also have a new quarterback. Former Kansas State starter Will Howard transferred in and he should do well in Kelly’s offense. He’ll have WR Emeka Egbuka as one of his weapons as well as three starters on the offensive line. The defense ranked No. 1 in the country against the pass last year and returns four-year starting CB Denzel Burke. Alabama transfer Caleb Downs will make the secondary one of the best in the nation.

Top Contender

Ohio State is favored this season The Buckeyes biggest competition for the Big Ten title is going to come from Oregon. The Ducks went 12-2 last year with both losses coming to Washington, which lost to Michigan in the national championship game last year. The Ducks lost QB Bo Nix to the NFL, but they got Dillon Gabriel who started the last two seasons at Oklahoma. Gabriel will have plenty of weapons, including WR Tez Johnson (86-1,182-10).

Head coach Dan Lanning is known for his defenses and the Ducks didn’t disappoint last year. Oregon finished ninth in scoring defense (16.5) and 10th against the run (102.6). Lanning has some holes to fill (just four returning starters), but Oregon has signed plenty of blue-chip talent over the past two recruiting cycles. That’s why the Ducks are given +200 odds to win the Big Ten in 2024 at BetONLINE sportsbook.

Best of the Rest

While the Big Ten looks like a two-team race, don’t forget about James Franklin and Penn State. The Nittany Lions are listed at +450 odds to capture the Big Ten title and this could be the year. Like Day at Ohio State, Franklin has six starters back on each side of the ball. The big one sophomore QB Drew Allar. He threw for 2,631 and 25 touchdowns last season, leading Penn State to a 10-3 record.

Nick Singleton returns in the backfield after rushing for 752 yards. WR Harrison Wallace III and TE Tyler Warren are also back in the Nittany Lions new-look offense. Franklin lured Andy Kotelnicki away from Kansas to run the Penn State offense. Kotelnicki’s offenses at Kansas averaged 35 points per game in each of the past two seasons.

The only other program given better than +1000 odds to win the Big Ten this season is Michigan (+600) at SportsBetting sportsbook. Moore has experience as the Wolverines head coach, taking over when Harbaugh was suspended. Moore will not have the luxury of many returning starters, but the Wolverines do have plenty of young talent. They will get tested early. Michigan plays Texas on Sept. 7.

Making the Playoffs

The Big Ten champion is almost assured a College Football Playoff berth. The five highest-ranked conference champions earn an automatic bid. Whether it’s Ohio State, Oregon, or even Penn State, the Big Ten is likely to get at least one more team in the CFP.

The Buckeyes are actually given -600 odds to make the playoffs. That would indicate that even if they lose the Big Ten championship, Ohio State would make the playoffs with a loss or even two. Penn State is listed at -140 to make the playoffs. The Nittany Lions don’t play Oregon and have a more favorable schedule. Oregon is given -300 odds to make the 12-team playoff at BetAnySports sportsbook.

Big Ten Sleeper

Iowa sleeper pick Big Ten? It’s hard to call Penn State or Michigan a sleeper, but if there is a team that could surprise everyone and capture a Big Ten title it’s Iowa. The Hawkeyes went 10-4 last season with one of the worst offenses in the country. Iowa averaged 15.4 points a game and still won 10 games.

New offensive coordinator Tim Lester will continue the Hawkeyes’ dominating running game, but he will have veteran QB Cade McNamara back after a knee injury. Iowa should be improved on offense and the defense should be just as good or better than last year. Iowa finished fourth in the nation in scoring defense (14.8 ppg) and in the top-10 against the pass and total defense.

Iowa plays at Ohio State on Oct. 5, but the Hawkeyes do not play Penn State, Michigan, or Oregon. That schedule could help pave the way toward a berth in the Big Ten championship game, which will be held on Saturday, Dec. 7, at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.