2024 Big 12 Football Preview – Odds – Sleeper Pick

Scott Morris | July 20, 2024

Big 12 football preview betting for 2014

For the second consecutive season, the Big 12 will have a new look. Oklahoma and Texas are gone, off to the riches of the SEC. After adding UCF, BYU, Houston, and Cincinnati prior to the 2023 season, the Big 12 adds former members Utah and Colorado as well as Arizona and Arizona State. That will leave the conference with 16 teams.

There will not be a repeat champion in 2024 as Texas took the Big 12 title last year. The Longhorns beat Oklahoma State in the Big 12 championship game. The Cowboys return a ton of starters and are among the favorites to win the conference in 2024. There is great balance, especially at the top, in the Big 12.

Ask five different college football experts which team will win the Big 12 in 2024 and you may get five different answers. Utah, Kansas, Kansas State and even Arizona and Iowa State all have legitimate shots at winning this season’s Big 12 championship. That championship game will be played on Saturday, Dec. 7, at AT&T Stadium, the home of the NFL’s Dallas Cowboys.

Who Will Win the Big 12 Title?

The favorite to win the Big 12 championship is Utah, fresh off an 8-5 farewell season in the Pac-12. The big reason for the Utes’ optimism is the return of QB Cam Rising who missed all of last season with a knee injury. The Utah offense struggled (23.2 ppg), but a strong defense kept the Utes in games.

That defense returns seven starters from a unit that was fourth in the country against the run (82.8 ypg). Rising is a huge difference-maker. He was a big reason why Utah won back-to-back Pac-12 championships in 2021 and 2022. He will only have one returning starter at receiver – Money Parker – and leading rusher Ja’Quinden Jackson transferred to Arkansas. Still, oddsmakers like the Utes at +310 to win the conference at SportsBetting.ag

The Utes will face serious challenges from a number of other quality Big 12 programs. Oklahoma State, as mentioned already, will have almost all of their starters back this season, including the nation’s leading rusher in Ollie Gordon (1,732 yds., 21 TDs). Kansas State (9-4) played for a Big 12 title just two years ago and head coach Chris Klieman ranks third in winning percentage (75.0%) among active coaches with at least 10 seasons of service.

Other Top Contenders

In addition to Oklahoma State and Kansas State, don’t forget about Kansas. The Jayhawks have experienced an incredible turnaround under head coach Lance Leipold. Kansas went from 2-10 to 6-7 and 9-4 last season with a bowl victory. The Jayhawks produced a great season in 2023 without QB Jalen Daniels, who played in just three games last year. Daniels is back in 2024.

Arizona went 10-3 last year but lost head coach Jedd Fisch to Washington. Brent Brennan, who had great success at San Jose State, takes over the Wildcats program. He’ll have a Heisman candidate in QB Noah Fifita (2,869 yds., 25 TDs) and a future first-round wide receiver in Tetairoa McMillan (90-1,402-10).

Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell returns an incredible 18 starters – nine on offense, nine on defense – in 2024. Rocco Becht has a year under his belt at quarterback and all five offensive line starters are back. The Cyclones return four of five starters on the back end. That’s on a defense that ranked in the top-50 against the run (134.2 ypg, 37th), in total defense (363.2 ypg, 50th), and scoring defense (22.8 ppg, 42nd).

Big 12 Teams in CFP

The Big 12 should benefit from the new 12-team College Football Playoff. How much the conference benefits remains to be seen. The Big 12, especially at the top of the standings, has a tendency to beat each other up.

In the last four Big 12 championship games, at least one of the entrants had two losses. Take the 2022 season. TCU went unbeaten during the regular season and then lost to two-loss Kansas State. The Horned Frogs still made the CFP and would advance to the national championship game where they were destroyed by Georgia.

It’s likely that this year’s conference champion makes the playoff, but after that two-loss teams from the Big 12 might not get the nod over two-loss teams from the SEC and Big Ten. Of the top contenders for the Big 12 title, that is going to leave no room for error.

The Big 12 Sleeper to Watch

Gus Malzahn had his worst season at UCF last season, losing in the Gasparilla Bowl to Georgia Tech to finish 6-7. It was also Malzahn’s worst season as an FBS head coach. The Knights had to adjust to a much tougher schedule in the Big 12. With a year of experience in its new conference, UCF should be ready to make a splash.

Malzahn went to the transfer portal to replace QB John Rhys Plumlee. Former Arkansas starter K.J. Jefferson will finish his college career playing for Malzahn. He can do it with his arm and his legs. Jefferson will have six starters from last year’s offense. That includes leading rusher R.J. Harvey, who had 1,416 yards last season. UCF had the fourth-best rushing attack in the nation last year averaging 228.2 yards per game.

The Knights will avoid Oklahoma State on the schedule this season. They also get Arizona and Utah at home. The defense should be improved with four starters plus a wealth of new talent brought in via the transfer portal. That’s why the Knights are one of six teams given better than +1000 odds at top sportsbooks. UCF, while not a true sleeper, is listed at +900 odds and is probably not part of many experts’ top contenders in the Big 12.