There Is Opportunity in Betting Baseball Parlays

There is a general belief that parlays are for suckers. In many instances, that belief is correct. However, there is some value in exploring baseball parlays. Baseball is a unique sport because most bettors will wager on the MLB moneyline. Because of the low scoring nature of baseball, sportsbooks establish the point spread – aka run line in baseball – at 1.5. 

Since baseball is more of a moneyline sport, there is opportunity in putting together parlays. We’ll show you why baseball parlays are different and some examples of when you should consider using them.

Baseball vs. Football

Football parlays are pretty much for suckers. Let’s take an example where we parlay three NFL games. Most NFL bettors will wager on the point spread. Let’s assume we make three NFL bets ATS. There are two things that can happen in each game. Your team covers and you win the bet or your team doesn’t cover and you lose.

That means in your three-team NFL parlay, there are eight potential outcomes. Only one of those outcomes gives you a parlay winner. That is when all three NFL teams cover the point spread. 

Since you lose on seven of the eight outcomes, you will need your parlay to pay 7/1 odds (+700) in order to break even in the long run. You’ll need better odds in order to make a profit. Most sportsbooks will offer 6/1 or +600 odds on a three-team NFL parlay. The only way you make money is if your one winning outcome occurs more often than the other seven outcomes. That’s why the sportsbook has the edge. 

Baseball is different. Bettors typically bet on the moneyline. There are still just two outcomes – your team wins or it loses – but there are no set payouts for MLB parlays. Instead, the odds of the individual games you are including are used to calculate the odds of the parlay. This means your payouts are more in line with the true odds.

MLB Moneyline Parlays

MLB moneyline parlays appear to be an attractive option. They are, but bettors have to be careful. In a three-team MLB parlay, there are still eight outcomes and only one of those is a winner that will payout. But, bettors have a slight advantage in that MLB betting favorites win nearly 60 percent of the time. 

There are numerous times during an MLB season when teams have long winning/losing streaks. This season, teams like Cleveland, Philadelphia, the New York Yankees, Baltimore, and the Los Angeles Dodgers all have winning percentages over 61 percent. The Phillies have two separate seven-game winning streaks and another streak of six games. Identifying these hot teams can go a long way when putting together MLB parlays.

Still, winning MLB parlays can be difficult. Even if you do correctly pick 60 percent of your MLB games, you’ll only win roughly 22 percent of your parlay bets. That means you’ll cash one in every five MLB parlays. Will that be enough to turn a profit? 

Betting MLB Parlays – Big Favorites

If you’ve been doing this long enough, you know that consistently betting on heavy MLB favorites can put you in the hole. Consider the Marlins at the Royals on June 25, 2024. Kansas City was at home where they have one of the best home records in MLB. Starting pitcher Seth Lugo was 10-2 with a 2.29 ERA entering the game and Miami ranked 29th in MLB in scoring. 

The Royals were as large as a -190 favorite and went on to lose 2-1. Favorites win about 60 percent of the time, but that means they lose four out of every ten games. Still, it can pay to find big favorites and play them together in a parlay.

On the same night (June 25, 2024), the Dodgers were a -225 favorite against the White Sox at online sportsbook. The Houston Astros were -270 favorites against the Rockies. It really doesn’t make that much sense to wager on either game individually, but when you parlay the two games together, the parlay odds are -102. That’s much more attractive. 

A $100 bet on the Dodgers would pay out $44 and the same bet on Houston would pay $37.04. That’s a total of $81.04. Or, you parlay the two bets, get -102 odds, and your $100 bet pays you $98.04. Both the Dodgers and the Astros won that night and this parlay would have cashed.

Find the Edge

Another instance when you should consider betting an MLB parlay is when you find a game where the posted line differs significantly from what you think it should be. Let’s use a simple example and say that the Mets and Yankees are playing each other. You believe each team has an equal chance of winning. That puts each team’s odds at +100.

One of the teams is listed at +150. That differs significantly from your projected odds and it means there is value in betting on that team. If you can find at least one other such occurrence on that day’s card, you can combine the two wagers into an MLB parlay that will reflect more favorable odds than if bet separately.

Also See:

How to Find Success Betting Home Run Props

Using FIP to Win Baseball Bets