Was J.J. Redick the Right Choice in LA?

If you chuckled a little at the Los Angeles Lakers’ hiring of former ESPN analyst J.J. Redick, you’re not alone. Redick, who played 15 seasons in the NBA, has never been a coach in the league. In fact, he’s never coached anything. 

After retiring from the NBA in 2021, Redick launched a podcast and became an on-air analyst for ESPN. He’s been successful in both of those endeavors. Redick even has a podcast with the Lakers LeBron James, which surely played a role in his hiring. 

The Lakers attempted to go all-in on UConn head coach Dan Hurley. Los Angeles offered the two-time defending national championship coach $70 million over four years, but Hurley said no thanks. Last Thursday, GM Rob Pelinka and owner Jeanie Buss made the decision to offer the job to Redick.

Now, the question is how does an NBA head coach with zero experience win games? How does said head coach win in the spotlight of one of the NBA’s most storied franchises? 

A Look at History

Redick isn’t the only NBA head coach hired without any experience. There have been six coaches hired without any experience as an NBA head coach since 2006. The first is actually still in place – Steve Kerr in Golden State. 

Kerr spent 16 seasons in the NBA and, like Redick, got into broadcasting. In 2004, Kerr did start a stint with Phoenix, first as a consultant, then as the team’s general manager. He had zero coaching experience when he took over the Golden State Warriors in 2014. 

It was an unpopular choice, but all Kerr did was lead the Warriors to a 67-15 record and the first of four NBA championships. More importantly, Kerr has been a profitable choice for bettors. More on that later.

Kerr replaced Mark Jackson, the previous head coach at Golden State. Jackson also had no experience as a coach prior to his hiring. He had played 18 seasons in the league before being hired by new Warriors owners Joe Lacob and Howard Gruber in 2011. Jackson only lasted three seasons, but like Kerr, was a profitable choice for bettors.

Interestingly, all but one of these six coaches – Derek Fisher is the exception – would have made bettors a nice return both against the spread and on the moneyline.

Betting on New Coaches

If an NBA bettor had simply bet blindly on Kerr and the Warriors against the spread in all 82 games of his first NBA season, that $100 bettor would have profited $1,164 for the season (47-33-2 ATS). If the same bettor had done that in Jackson’s first season in Golden State, he’d have taken home ($528).

The other three coaches that turned a small profit were Vinny Del Negro (Chicago, 2008), Steve Nash (Brooklyn, 2020), and Jason Kidd (Brooklyn, 2013). Fisher took over in New York and won just 17 games. A $100 bettor would have lost over $1,400 betting on the Knicks ATS that season.

However, if the same bettor would have opted for the Knicks moneyline, they would have profited nearly $500 for the season. That’s because the Knicks were often huge underdogs. Near the end of the 2013-14 season, the Knicks were +1200 moneyline underdogs against Atlanta, which would go on to earn the No. 1 seed in the East. New York pulled the upset, earning $100 bettors $1200!

Nash’s Nets team had the best first-year record, going 48-24 in the season after COVID (2020-21). Moneyline bettors wagering $100 on the Nets all season long would have totaled $851 in profits. Kerr’s Warriors team netted over $500 in profits and Kidd’s team – which went 41-41 – still earned a profit.

What It Means for Redick

Redick was hired for a number of reasons. One is his basketball IQ. He will most certainly surround himself with veteran assistant coaches to help him shorten the learning curve. Redick is also only 40 years old. He’ll be able to connect with players and, as mentioned, he already has a solid relationship with James. 

It’s a huge risk for the Lakers, but it was a big risk for the Orlando Magic back in 1999. Prior to that season, the Magic took a chance on a former NBA player named Glenn “Doc” Rivers. Rivers led the Magic to the 2000 NBA title with zero prior experience. He had never coached in the NBA nor served in any front office capacity. Kerr, of course, had been a GM before he won a title in his first season with Golden State.

It’s a risk for the Lakers, but LA is hoping this risk offers a big return.

The Lakers are +3500 and are 11th from the top as far as odds to win the 2024-25 NBA championship at BetUS.com