NFL Odds to Make/Miss Playoffs (Vol. III) – Picks

In the continuing saga of trying to ‘outsmart’ the NFL, we are predicting the playoff teams ahead of this season. We’ve been looking at them four at a time, deciding as to the make/miss factor with the odds. Camps are going to begin in the next few weeks, the last period of roster-shifting (to whatever degree) before the season. 

While two teams (Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers) are once again ahead of the pack, there may be other team(s) ready to make a move. As of this writing, both the Chiefs and Niners are 1-5 (-500) to make the playoffs, 7-2 (+350) to miss.   

Here’s the third installment looking at the playoff odds of a quartet of teams, along with make/miss suggestions…

Los Angeles Chargers to Make (+110)

The Los Angeles Chargers were as disappointing as any outpost in the NFL last season. Enter ex-Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh, returning to the pros while (probably) staying a step ahead of the NCAA’s version of the law. There is also a pretty fair quarterback in Justin Herbert.

LA isn’t going to win the AFC West, unless something drastic happens in Kansas City. Even though not much is expected with the Powder Blue, there is a favorable schedule, however, including non-divisions foes the Carolina Panthers, Arizona Cardinals and Tennessee Titans.

There’s a ton of question marks on defense (as always), and some unknowns among the receivers, but at above even-money, there is some serious value with the Bolts to make the playoffs. Grab the Los Angeles Chargers at 11-10 (+110) to advance into the postseason.

Miami Dolphins to Miss (+150)

The Miami Dolphins should be a very intriguing team this season, if no other reason than they Heimliched away the AFC East last season. Miami was relegated into the wild-card round, summary dismissed by the Kansas City Chiefs.

While the health of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is always a concern/question mark, the Fish should again pile on the points, What they do on defense is another story. 

Miami isn’t dethroning the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East (the teams have a Week 2 Sunday evening encounter in Florida), while the New York Jets are (theoretically) better. 

Miami missing the postseason at 3-2 (+150), according to NFL playoff odds, is our nod.

Pittsburgh Steelers to Make (+160)

There’s not a division in the league as crowded as the AFC North, unique in that every team finished above .500 last season, The Pittsburgh Steelers managed to win 10 games in 2023, despite a negative (-20) point differential overall. 

Exactly what does Russell Wilson bring to the table at quarterback? Can he make the offense somewhat consistent, which may be all that’s asked as Pittsburgh’s defense figures to again be tough to navigate. 

There are many questions in the AFC North, starting with the (healthy?) return of Cincinnati Bengals’ quarterback Joe Burrow. However, we’re penciling in the Pittsburgh Steelers to again get to 10 wins, and this time into the playoffs at 8-5 (+160). 

They’re at 7-1 (+700) to win the North, as per NFL division odds.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers to Miss (-170)

Unless and until there’s realignment, any team not named the Carolina Panthers has a shot in the moribund NFC South. 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their 9-8 record won a tiebreaker (with the New Orleans Saints), a division and a first-round playoff game against the listless Philadelphia Eagles last season. Quarterback Baker Mayfield returns to run an offense that doesn’t scare anyone, but is generously referred to as ‘decent’.

There’s no wild-card team coming out of this division, and we’re thinking either the Atlanta Falcons and/or Saints get the better of the Bucs this season. A miss (-170) is the way to go.