Playing the Over at Progressive Field

If you hadn’t noticed, playing the Over at Progressive Field is a thing in 2024. That has not been the case over the past several seasons. In fact, in 2023, bettors could have played the Under in all of Cleveland’s home games and they would have won 65 percent of the time. That’s right. The Guardians were the top Under team (28-52-1 O/U) in MLB last season, but that has changed. Fans and bettors might be surprised at why.

It’s Not the Lineup

The Guardians, for the most part, are rolling with a lineup very similar to 2023. Jose Ramirez is back as his usual self hitting .271 with 18 homers and 62 RBIs. Josh Naylor has 17 home runs and Cleveland does average 5.08 runs per game which is third in MLB behind Baltimore and Philadelphia. 

No other Guardians have double-digit homers. Cleveland is not a power-hitting team. They are more a contact team. The Guardians are only 19th in hard contact rate among all 30 MLB teams. But, Cleveland ranks ninth in the majors in home runs. A team that really doesn’t hit for power ranks in the top-10 in a power category – home runs. 

Even the Guardians’ two power hitters – Ramirez and Naylor – don’t hit the ball as hard as other power hitters around MLB. Naylor’s average exit velocity is 91.5 mph and Ramirez’s is 89.5. Aaron Judge, who leads the majors in HRs with 25, has an average exit velocity of 97.1. So, why are the Guardians hitting more home runs and seeing more Overs at home?

New Look at Progressive Field

While guys like David Fry (.326, 1.026 OPS) have certainly made the Guardians lineup stronger, it’s not the lineup that is making a difference in the number of Overs at Progressive Field. The lineup is, of course, part of it, but the bigger reason is some changes made at the stadium itself.

Last year according to Baseball Savant, Progressive Field had a Ballpark Factor of 94. That ranked 28th among MLB teams. If you are unfamiliar with ballpark factor, it is a measure of how easy or hard it is to score runs at a given ballpark.

The baseline value is 100. Stadiums with a ballpark factor over 100 are those that are more hitter-friendly. Think Coors Field or Cincinnati’s Great American Ballpark. Both stadiums have features that make it easier to score runs. 

Ballparks like T-Mobile Park and Citi Field have features that make it harder to score. One of those features is simply the field dimensions. Hitters have to hit balls further to hit homers to center field at Comerica Park (420 ft) compared to just 404 feet at Great American Ballpark. 

In the offseason before the 2024 season began, Progressive Field underwent some changes. Some of the upper deck seating was removed from the stadium to create standing-room areas. The removal of the seating opens up Progressive Field a bit and it also allows for the flow of more wind. That new wind flow has had a direct impact on the long ball at Progressive Field.

Ballpark Factor

As mentioned earlier, Progressive Field had a ballpark factor of 94 last year, which ranked 28th among the 30 MLB ballparks. That meant it was more difficult to score runs in Cleveland. In 2022, it was a similar story. Progressive Field’s ballpark factor was 96, which ranked 26th. 

Fast-forward to 2024 and currently the Guardians home field now ranks in the top ten in ballpark factor with a score of 103. There is also something called home run factor (baseball measures everything these days). Last year, Progressive Field ranked last (30th) in home run factor. This season, the Guardians home is fourth.

The Results

From a betting perspective, the Over has been a strong play when the Guardians are at home this season. Less than a year after leading the majors in Unders, Cleveland now ranks among the top Over teams. The Over is 15-12-2 through 29 home games in Cleveland.

Bettors have also been successful backing the Guardians to win at home. Cleveland has one of the best home records in MLB at 21-8 after 29 games at Progressive Field. They are a top-5 team in terms of run differential both at home and overall. Cleveland is also a strong bet on the run line at home as a result of their increased scoring. The Guardians rank fifth in run line cover percentage at home and overall.