NFL Odds to Make/Miss Playoffs Picks (Vol. II)
James Willis | June 12, 2024
So, last week, there was the first installment in one of the more intriguing future wagers associated with the NFL…guessing which teams are going to make/miss the playoffs in 2024.
While the draft and free agency have reshaped many of the rosters, invariable injuries are going to start to impact each team.
Here’s another look at playoff odds surrounding four teams in the league, and how we’d wager.
Texans to Miss (+155)
The Houston Texans surprised observers a season ago, winning the AFC South on the strength of superb Rookie of the Year quarterback C.J. Stroud (4,108 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, five interceptions). Stroud will be looking to avoid any semblance of a sophomore jinx in 2024. Houston was 10-7 in ‘23, that after a 3-13-1 record in 2022.
It isn’t that we’re not believers, but the Texans figure to see much more competition inside the division and have a tough non-South schedule (Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Detroit Lions and Miami Dolphins among the foes).
That’s why we expect the Houston Texans, even the addition of ex-Minnesota Viking and Bill wide receiver Stefon Diggs, to take a step back this season.
There’s some great value in taking the Texans (+155) to miss the playoffs. Make that wager.
Jaguars to Make (-105)
Staying in the AFC South, while the Houston Texans were a revelation, the Jacksonville Jaguars were a regurgitation. Jacksonville Heimliched away the division by losing five of its last six. It finished 9-8, while not justifying the ‘chic pick’ status entering the season.
Quarterback Trevor Lawrence (21 touchdowns, 14 interceptions) was both inconsistent and injured through much of last season. He needs to be better (and healthier) if Jacksonville is to repeat its late-season surge and ‘22 division title (albeit with same 9-8 records as last season).
As was mentioned, we are envisioning the Houston Texans to regress somewhat, which may give the Jacksonville Jaguars the requisite opening to get back to the playoffs.
There isn’t a ton of value in this wager, but it’s one you simply can’t ignore.
Rams to Make (+110)
It’s been a strange few years with the Los Angeles Rams, who aren”t that far removed off a championship. LA’s no longer the juggernaut of past seasons, but this team should be one of the higher-scoring teams in the league.
While the NFC West remains the domain of the San Francisco 49ers. Los Angeles, even without newly-retired defensive standout Aaron Donald, can sneak in. LA was 10-7 and scored more than 400 points last season, making the playoffs before a one-point loss (quarterbacks Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford opposing their former teams) to the Detroit Lions.
There aren’t that many elite teams in the NFC, so the Rams making the playoffs at 11-10 (+110), according to NFL playoff odds, is our selection.
Jets to Miss (+110)
There’s death, taxes and the New York Jets missing the playoffs. The Jets, along with NHL’s Buffalo Sabres, have a baker’s dozen (that’s 13-year) pro sports-long playoff drought. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who lasted about 40 seconds in his Jet debut before rupturing his 40-year-old Achilles, is (theoretically) healthy this time around.
Provided Rodgers is breathing, he is infinitely better than what replaced him last season (see Wilson, Zach). Rodgers isn’t so good at that phase, however, that he can win games by himself.
There’s a terrific defense with Gang Green, but until proven otherwise, scoring’s problematic here. Add in the fact the Jets are in a tough AFC East with the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins. Despite the return of Rodgers, New York just does not have what it takes to get into the postseason. Coming off a 7-10 season in 2023, over-under is set at 9½, as per NFL regular- season wins.
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