Dallas – Boston 2024 NBA Finals Preview and Odds

The 2024 NBA Finals are set to start on Thursday, June 6, in Boston where the Eastern Conference champion Celtics will host the Western Conference champion Dallas Mavericks. It’s a matchup that not many would have predicted at the beginning of the 2023-24 campaign. Dallas had to overcome No. 1 seed Oklahoma City and No. 3 seed Minnesota on its way to the finals. 

It’s the Mavericks first trip to the NBA Finals since they won the franchise’s first and only championship in 2011. The Mavs will face a Boston team that surprised no one by advancing to the finals for the second time in three seasons. The Celtics cruised through the postseason, beating Miami, Cleveland, and Indiana. Boston has lost just twice in 14 games in the playoffs thus far. Now, they will face Dallas with an opportunity to win the franchise’s 18th NBA championship and first since 2008.

Boston Favored

The Celtics will open Game 1 as a 6.5-point favorite over the Mavs. Boston is given -220 odds at BetUS (68.75% implied probability) to win the NBA title. Dallas, on the other hand, is a +180 underdog and will have to continue to rely on Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving to produce.

Boston’s top six players have been outstanding all season long and the Celtics will get Kristaps Porzingis (20.1 ppg, 7.2 rpg in regular season) back for this series. Porzingis hasn’t played since Game 4 of the opening round series against Miami. A calf injury kept him out of the last two series, but the rest of the Celtics stepped up.

Jayson Tatum turned up his effort and averaged over 30 points a game in the conference finals sweep of Indiana. Tatum is the current favorite to win the NBA Finals MVP. Tatum is given -125 odds while Doncic is next on the board at +200. Tatum’s teammate Jaylen Brown, who averaged 29.8 points a game in the Indiana series, is given +550 odds to win the award.

Chink in the Celtics Armor?

The public will undoubtedly be all over the Celtics, which is currently the case if you look at Game 1 moneyline bets. Over 80 percent of that action is on Boston, but many are seeing through the hype. Roughly 70 percent of the Game 1 point spread bets are on Dallas. Not everyone is buying Boston’s dominance.

Yes, Boston is 12-2 in the playoffs with a 10.1 net rating, but consider the opponents. The Celtics were the beneficiaries of some luck. Consider Boston’s second-round win over Cleveland. The Cavs were missing its two best players plus a Sixth Man of Year contender. The Celtics advanced to the conference finals and blew multiple leads in Game 1 and would have lost if not for the Pacers desire to lose more. 

You could add in Tatum too. He’s been more himself lately, but early in the playoffs there were some games where he simply disappeared. Boston has, at times, relied a bit too much on the three-pointer and they’ll go up against a pretty solid Dallas defense in this NBA finals series. Yes, Boston is still an outstanding team, but they will have to be at their best to beat Dallas.

Difference Makers

There’s no question that Doncic and Tatum are the two best players on the floor, but Doncic is the key to a Dallas upset. Against Minnesota, Doncic essentially willed himself to 32 points a game and a near triple-double. He’d been playing through knee and ankle injuries and now, with a week off, he’s ready to get after Boston. In 11 career games against the Celtics, Doncic has averaged 29.9 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 7.5 assists per game. 

The Dallas defense is giving up just 105 points a game over its last ten and will have to shut down Tatum as well as Brown, who has averaged 25.0 points per game in the postseason. The difference maker for the Celtics is likely Porzingis. 

He’ll be a huge factor on defense as he is a solid rim protector. That can disrupt Dallas on the pick-and-roll. Porzingis is a taller, longer, more active option than Al Horford. He also can step outside and shoot, which will force the Mavs defense to defend him on the perimeter. If Porzingis stays healthy throughout the series, Boston’s chances for another title remain strong.

Betting Markets

Bettors can opt for a number of ways to bet on the 2024 NBA Finals. As mentioned, Boston is a -220 favorite to win and a 6.5-point favorite to win Game 1. You can also bet on the NBA Finals total number of games. That total is set at 5.5 with the Over favored at -150. The Under currently has +125 odds at SportsBetting.ag 

It’s also possible to bet on the exact number of games – 4, 5, 6, or 7. The shortest odds are actually on the series going a full seven games. Check the odds below.

• 7 games +220
• 6 games +230
• 5 games +255
• 4 games +450

Bettors can also wager on the exact outcome of the series. The longest odds (+1900 at BetOnline.ag) are on a Mavs sweep of the Celtics. The shortest odds are on a Celtics 4-1 win (+340) followed by a Celtics 4-3 win (+350).