Overperforming vs. Underperforming MLB Teams in 2024

As we head into June, it’s time to take a quick look at how the 2024 MLB season has played out so far. The Los Angeles Dodgers leading the National League West is not surprising considering the Boys in Blue have won 10 of the past 11 division titles. 

What’s interesting is this. Since 1995 (not including the 2020 COVID season), teams in sole possession of first place in their division on June 1 have gone on to win that division 58 percent of the time. If we stick to the percentages in 2024, that means at least three of the Yankees, Guardians, Mariners, Phillies, Brewers, and Dodgers will be crowned division champions at the end of the season.

One thing we know for sure is that nothing is written in stone. There’s a ton of baseball left. We’ve only played two full months of the season. What has stood out the most in 2024? Here’s a look at what has surprised us the most this season.

Houston Still Has a Problem

The Houston Astros have corrected somewhat, but they are still underperforming in 2024. On April 30, Houston was just 10-19 and was sitting in last place in the AL West. So far in May, the Astros had a six-game win streak and they are 14-12. That brings their overall record to 24-31 heading into a May 29 game against AL West leader Seattle. 

Seattle leads the division but is just two games over .500. The Mariners won the first series with Houston this season and have taken the first two games of this current four-game series. The Astros have struggled all season primarily due to injuries to the starting pitching rotation and a lack of offense when it counts. 

Houston is 3-11 this season when their opponent scores first and just 2-9 in games where they didn’t hit a home run. The bullpen has underperformed. Ryan Pressly is No. 2 in MLB in blown saves. Luckily for Houston, defending champion Texas hasn’t done all that well either. The Rangers are just 26-29 after 54 games. 

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We’re No. 1

On the day after Memorial Day, which team had the best record in the American League? If you said the Baltimore Orioles, who had the most wins in 2023, you’d be wrong. New York Yankees? Wrong again. It’s none of the teams anyone would have expected. It’s the Cleveland Guardians.

The Guardians (37-18 as of May 29) have the best record in the AL. They have been at or near the top of MLB in scoring all season long. Their lineup ranks in the top ten in most offensive categories and the pitching isn’t bad either. Cleveland ranks eighth in overall team ERA (3.44). 

Cleveland pitchers are in the Top 3 in strikeouts per nine innings and they have three starters all under 4.00 in ERA – Triston McKenzie, Tanner Bibee, and Ben Lively. One might think, well, the Guardians play in one of the weakest divisions in baseball – the AL Central. But, that would be another surprise.

New-Look AL Central

Yes, Cleveland has the best record in the AL, but how about those Kansas City Royals? The Royals might be the biggest surprise in baseball this season. The pitching has been superb. Seth Lugo is 8-1 with a 1.74 ERA and three other starters all have ERAs below 3.50.

Bobby Witt and Salvador Perez lead the team in homers with 9 apiece and both are hitting over .300. The Royals rank in the top ten in runs per game, batting average, OPS and more. They have been outstanding at home. Kansas City has the best home record – 21-8 – in the American League this season.

Minnesota is also over .500 heading into the final week of May. The Twins had a 12-game winning streak at the end of April and beginning of May. They then dropped seven straight in mid-May and have won 6 of 7 since. 

Even the Detroit Tigers are getting in on the action. The Tigers were a game below .500 on Memorial Day. They have the favorite to win the AL Cy Young award – Tarik Skubal. The Tigers ace is 6-1 with a 2.25 ERA. The Tigers also have right-hander Reese Olson who has a 1.92 ERA but is just 1-5 on the season. If the Tigers can figure out how to pair their offense with some great pitching, the AL Central race will be that much better.

Early Disappointments

In addition to Houston, a handful of other teams have gotten off to disappointing starts in 2024. The first one that comes to mind is Miami. We kind of knew the Marlins were in trouble when ace pitcher Sandy Alcantara was shut down for the season due to Tommy John surgery last October. Then, the Marlins traded away Luis Arraez in May. He was the team’s best hitter. The result is a 19-37 record (as of May 29) and a current last place standing in the NL East.

Remember when the Mets won 100 games just two years ago? What happened? New York is already 15 games out of first place in the NL East. Over the last month or so, the Mets have lost 22 of 32 games, which puts them on pace to lose 111 games. Yikes!

As mentioned earlier, you could add the Rangers to the list of early disappointments. Last year’s World Series MVP Corey Seager just recently found his form. The bullpen has been terrible, but Texas is still only 3.5 games out of first place in the AL West. 

Arizona won the NL pennant last year. As of Memorial Day, the Diamondbacks were in fourth place in the NL West. The DBacks have just one starting pitcher with an ERA below 4.16. That’s Zac Gallen (5-4, 3.12). Merrill Kelly is still hurt and the bullpen ERA ranks in the bottom-10 in MLB.

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