Using FIP to Win Baseball Bets

If you’re looking to win more baseball bets, you’re in the right place. Obviously, in today’s information age, there is an almost endless supply of statistics and data available to the average bettor. In addition to these traditional baseball stats, there is a whole separate set of information ready to be consumed.

These advanced analytics included measurements like FIP, which stands for Fielding Independent Pitching. This article will define FIP and how you might be able to use it to win more of your baseball bets.

FIP Defined

There are certain elements of a baseball game that cannot be controlled by a pitcher, but those elements affect a pitcher’s statistics. Robert “Voros” McCracken developed a measurement that takes all of those “extras” out of the equation. 

For example, a pitcher controls whether or not he allows a home run or gives up a walk. However, he does not control batted balls in play. A pitcher throws a pitch and a player hits a ground ball between the first and second basemen. Neither player can make a play on the ball. 

The ball then is misplayed by the right fielder and rolls all the way to the right field fence. The hitter is able to touch all four bases and it is ruled an inside-the-park home run. That run is not on the pitcher when calculating FIP. If the same player had hit the ball out of the park, then the pitcher would be on the hook for it.

What the FIP calculation can do is help in determining a pitcher’s future performances. For example, a pitcher with a very good 2.59 ERA might have an FIP of 4.34. This situation suggests that a pitcher has been getting lucky. It is probable that a pitcher will see an increase in his earned runs in the next few games.

 

Using FIP in Baseball Betting

A pitcher’s FIP is usually lower than his earned run average if he surrenders a lot of balls in play. A pitcher that gives up a lot of ground balls, for example, will almost always have a higher ERA than FIP. That’s because balls in play are removed from the FIP calculation.

FIP numbers include home runs, unintentional walks, batters hit by a pitch, and strikeouts. These are all controlled by the pitcher. The only time a ball in play is counted in an FIP calculation is when the ball is actually hit to the pitcher who then makes a play on the ball.

The FIP Calculation

You can actually calculate FIP on your own, even though the numbers are readily available. It’s also helpful to understand the formula and how FIP is derived. Here is the FIP (fielding independent pitching) formula:

[13*HR + 3*(HBP + BB) – 2*K]/IP + C

C is a constant that is used to bring FIP in line with ERA. The number is typically somewhere around 3.10. The earned-run average (ERA) and overall FIP of the entire league are used to calculate the FIP constant in this equation. For each pitcher, the FIP constant will always be the same value.

 

ERA vs. FIP 

When you start looking at FIP numbers, you will see that they look like ERA numbers. For most pitchers, the difference is usually relatively small. Take the ERA and FIP of Hall of Fame pitcher Greg Maddux. His career ERA was 3.16 and his FIP was 3.26. Houston’s Justin Verlander has a career ERA of 3.25 with an FIP of 3.40.

For comparison sake, a pitcher with an FIP of 4.00 is considered average. An FIP of 5.00 or above is considered poor and an FIP of 3.00 is above average. Pitchers with an FIP below 3.00 are the elites in MLB.

Roughly 75 percent of all MLB pitchers with at least 1,000 innings pitched have an ERA and FIP  that are in line with each other. The difference is usually around 0.20. However, there are times when a pitcher’s ERA and FIP don’t line up. That can help bettors in making betting decisions.

 

Finding Regression & Making Bets

Let’s take the pitcher with a pretty solid 3.15 ERA. On the surface, that’s the mark of a pretty good MLB pitcher. But, if he has an FIP of 4.78, that tells you something. One is that his lower ERA is greatly influenced by some great defense. 

Relying on great fielding to save a pitcher is not a good long-term strategy. That pitcher has probably received a little bit of luck in the field and he is probably due for some negative regression. His ERA will likely rise, which means you should consider betting against that pitcher. One strategy for using ERA and FIP would be to find pitchers with low ERAs and high FIPs and bet against them.

On the other end is the pitcher with the lower FIP and the higher ERA. This means that the pitcher is outperforming his team. If a pitcher has a 4.48 ERA and a 3.68 FIP, he is probably due for some positive regression and his ERA will drop closer to his FIP. You’d want to bet on that pitcher.

 

FIP to Bet Totals

Another effective strategy for using FIP is in targeting MLB totals. A pitcher with a low FIP is less likely to give up more runs than the average pitcher. The Phillies Ranger Suarez, for example, has an FIP of 2.55, which ranks sixth in MLB currently. His ERA is 1.36. Suarez doesn’t give up many runs. 

Pitchers usually have an advantage early in games. By the third time they face a batter in a game, hitters are more comfortable. A pitcher like Suarez doesn’t give up many runs early in games. That’s why it makes sense to bet the First Five Innings Under with pitchers like Suarez.

If a team has a strong bullpen – Philadelphia does not – bettors can also consider the full game total on pitchers with low FIPs. It’s important to note that sportsbooks will often base their game totals on a pitcher’s ERA. The number is often set higher than it should be.

With a strong bullpen, bettors can make a play on the game’s Under as well. Keep in mind that sportsbooks will base their totals on pitcher’s ERA and will often set the Over higher than it should be. 

See Also:

How to Bet MLB First Five Innings

How to Find Success Betting Home Run Props