Best 2024 NFL Season Win Totals Picks

With the release of the 2024 NFL regular season schedule, sportsbooks have posted their season win totals odds. These odds will change as we approach summer training camps and all through the regular season. Is there value anywhere in betting 2024 NFL season win totals this early? Let’s find out.

Broncos Got Trouble – Under 5.5 Wins 

The Denver Broncos went 8-9 a year ago and they are worse in May ‘24 than they were at the end of last season. QB Russell Wilson is gone. If you think rookie QB Bo Nix is the answer to prayer, you’re wrong. 

The Broncos also traded away WR Jerry Jeudy who, along with Wilson, represented Denver’s two best playmakers. It’s hard to see the Broncos making strides on offense. The one thing they can do is run the football. Javonte Williams ran for 774 yards behind an offensive line that graded out fourth in run-blocking per PFF.

That offensive line did lose C Lloyd Cushenberry III in the offseason. Luke Wattenberg is not an upgrade. Then, there is the Broncos schedule. Denver will play eight home games compared to nine on the road. 

The schedule includes two dates with the Chiefs. Denver swept the Chargers last year, but backup QB Easton Stick played the majority of those snaps. The Broncos went 3-3 in the division last year and that isn’t likely to happen in 2024. 

Denver also must play the entire AFC North too. Three of those teams went to the playoffs last year and all four posted winning records. The Broncos also face three other potential playoff teams – the Jets, Seahawks, and Falcons. 

At +120, the price is right on a Denver team that will struggle on offense and returns most of a defense that gave up the sixth-most points in the league last year.

It’s Time – Jets Over 9.5 Wins

A healthy Aaron Rodgers is back and he would like nothing more than to get back to winning games. If the Jets can just stay healthy, getting to 10 wins should be absolutely doable. There are a number of reasons why. 

The Jets upgraded the offensive line – Tyron Smith, John Simpson, Morgan Moses – which will help them pound the football on the ground with RB Breece Hall and rookie Braelon Allen. 

New York also got Rodgers another weapon in big WR Mike Williams, previously of the Chargers. That adds another threat alongside 2022 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson. 

The Jets already had one of the NFL’s better defenses. That will continue in 2024. Since the start of the 2022-23 NFL season, the Jets have the third-best defensive EPA number. 

The Jets should fare well in their division. Both Miami and Buffalo lost some key players and New England is horrible. They get Houston, Seattle, and the LA Rams at home this year. That should help the Jets get to 10 wins for the first time in 2015. The price – +120 – is right too.

Post-Belichick Patriots Get Worse – Under 5.5 Wins

Speaking of New England…the Patriots won just four games last season. They won those four games by 5, 4, 3, and 3 points. They pulled an upset of Buffalo and also beat Pittsburgh, which started QB Mitch Trubisky, on the road in Week 14. New England went 3-8 last year in games decided by a touchdown or less. 

New England was one of the worst offenses in the NFL last year. That isn’t going to get much better in 2024. The Pats were dead last in the NFL in scoring (13.9 ppg). They also ranked 31st in categories like dropback EPA and EPA per play. How that will improve with Jacoby Brissett or rookie Drake Maye at quarterback is anyone’s guess. 

Like Denver, the Patriots will play just eight home games and they’ve got an extremely difficult road schedule. New England will face six of nine road teams that have win totals of 9.5 or higher. In 2024, the Patriots will play just three teams with a win total below 7.5.

Under 5.5 wins for New England is priced at -140 and it’s worth it. It’s hard to see New England winning two more games than last year against a tougher schedule.

Don’t Believe the Hype – Falcons Under 9.5 Wins

All eyes are on the offseason acquisition of QB Kirk Cousins. Then, the Falcons went out and drafted former University of Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. With weapons like Kyle Pitts, Drake London, Rondale Moore, and RB Bijan Robinson, the hype is all on the Falcons. 

The problem is that the Falcons did nothing to address their defensive issues. Atlanta was a middle of the pack defense in terms of passing, rushing, and total points allowed. They were also 28th in defensive EPA per play. 

Atlanta has a knack for playing in close games too. Over the last two regular seasons, the Falcons have played a total of 36 games. In those games, 21 were decided by eight points – one score – or fewer. Atlanta won eight of those games. 

Within that sample, Atlanta has played 14 games that were decided by a field goal or less. The Falcons are 7-7 SU in those games. Does Cousins make them that much better? Yes, but three wins better? Keep in mind, the winner of the AFC South Division has been won the last two seasons by teams with nine or fewer wins. Take the value (+115) on the Under 9.5 at BetUS.com

See a list of all 32 NFL team total wins Over-Unders by clicking or tapping here