Paul Skenes Season Strikeouts Prop

After a pretty solid MLB debut last Saturday, you are likely to read plenty about Pittsburgh Pirates pitching prospect Paul Skenes. You’ll read that he is the greatest pitching prospect in MLB history and that he already possesses one of the top ten arms in the game. 

Armed with that hype, how exactly are you going to bet on Skenes this season? Skenes pitched just four innings in his debut last Saturday against the Cubs. He did give up three earned runs, but he struck out seven. Most impressively Skenes topped 100 mph on 17 different pitches. 

However, it’s very hard to figure out how good a rookie is in today’s day and age. Just about every top-10 prospect is hyped into oblivion by those who don’t want to be late to the party. Even prospects further down the top 100 list carry with them plenty of praise.

What you don’t want is to fall for any over-hype. Skenes has received plenty of attention since his days at LSU and his assignment to Triple-A after spring training this year. So, how will you sort through all the hype and bet on Skenes this season?

History Plays a Role

Skenes pitched 122.2 innings at LSU in 2023 before appearing in five games last year in the Pirates minor league organization. At LSU, Skenes averaged a little over 6 innings per game. When he started with the Pirates last year, he was limited in how many pitches he could throw. That’s why he ended up only pitching 6.2 innings in those five minor league games in 2023.

After spring training, Skenes was sent to the Pirates Triple-A affiliate, the Indianapolis Indians. His workload was monitored all season long and he only pitched 27.1 innings in seven starts for the Indians. Will Skenes have a pitch or innings limit with the Pirates? That is very possible and may have been evident in Skenes’ first start.

Paul Skenes minor league stats

Skenes in Indy

As mentioned, Skenes started seven games in Indianapolis and the results were jaw-dropping. The 6-foot-6 Skenes absolutely dominated the competition. In his 27.1 innings, he allowed just 3 earned runs to end up with a 0.99 ERA. That number was even better than his xERA of 1.67 and FIP of 2.13.

What was also amazing was Skenes strikeout numbers. He recorded 45 Ks in Triple-A, which averages out to 14.8 strikeouts per nine innings. HIs strikeout percentage was 42.9 percent in Indianapolis. To give you some perspective, White Sox P Garret Crochet leads the majors in strikeout percentage. His is 33.7 percent.

In Indy, Skenes pitched no more than three innings in his first four starts. He then worked into the fifth in his next start before recording a season-high six innings in his sixth start. The most pitches Skenes threw while in Indianapolis was 75.

Skenes First MLB Start

Skenes made his first major league start last Saturday against the Cubs. Nothing was said about an inning or pitch limit, but the Pirates young star made it through four innings. He allowed six hits and three earned runs. He also surpassed his season-high with 84 pitches against Chicago. 

What Skenes did show was the ability to overpower some hitters with a fastball that clocked over 100 mph on 17 different pitches. He wound up striking out seven. It’s only one start, but his K/9 rate is 15.8 and his strikeout percentage is 35.0. Remember, Crochet leads MLB at 33.7 percent. Again, it’s only one start, but if Skenes pitches like this the rest of 2024, there may be some value in his season strikeouts prop.

Paul Skenes pro baseball stats

Betting Skenes Season Ks Prop

At first glance, Skenes’ season strikeouts prop at 104.5 looks pretty enticing. Skenes is a flamethrowing right-hander who should get somewhere around 19 to 23 starts over the remainder of the season. The Pirates have actually opted to go to a 6-man rotation which will keep Skenes on the lower end of that range.

Then, Skenes got his second start on Friday, May 17. He struck out the first seven batters that he faced. He would go on to pitch six innings, throw 100 pitches, and strike out 11. Skenes didn’t allow a hit or a run and Pittsburgh went on to beat the Cubs 9-3. 

Through two starts, Skenes now has 18 strikeouts. He has a ridiculous 16.2 K/9 rate. He has gone from 75 pitches to 84 in his first MLB start to 100 in his second. Skenes looks like he can handle six innings – maybe more depending upon pitch counts – in any given start. 

At 19 starts, Skenes can average just six strikeouts per game and he’ll be way Over 104.5. Skenes has been praised for his durability on the mound. Don’t be surprised if he routinely pitches 6 and 7 innings in his starts. Pitching six innings in 19 starts would give Skenes 114 inning pitched. Just one strikeout per inning would be enough to surpass this prop. 

At his current pace, even if Skenes only makes 15 starts, he’ll still surpass this prop. The only thing standing in the way of Skenes going Over this number this season is injury. Yes, he’ll struggle at some point, but Paul Skenes is going to be the next dominant MLB pitcher.