Post Draft 2024 NFL Futures

Scott Morris | May 10, 2024

The 2024 NFL draft came and went at the end of April and the NFL futures market essentially shrugged it off. There was some slight movement as a result of the draft and a few draft-day trades. Bettors expecting more of a reaction from the market should not be surprised.

Caleb Williams going to the Bears with the first pick was expected. Even the flip-flop of Jayden Daniels to No. 2 and Drake Maye to No. 3 was something that was heavily anticipated. There were a handful of draft-day trades, but sportsbooks had built many of those moves into their NFL futures odds. That’s why there wasn’t a ton of movement in the market after the draft.

Bettors did see some fluctuations in the Super Bowl futures market. Let’s see where they stand, as well as look at the Rookie of the Year markets, as teams get ready for their upcoming OTAs and minicamps.

Super Bowl LIX Favorites

It’s only fitting that the two teams that played in Super LVIII are the top two favorites to win the Lombardi Trophy in 2024. Kansas City became the first team since New England to win back-to-back Super Bowls with a 25-22 overtime victory against the San Francisco 49ers.

Shortly after that game, the Super Bowl LIX futures market opened and the 49ers were installed as +500 favorites at online sportsbooks. Kansas City was among the top contenders at +700, and the only other contender given better than +1000 odds was Baltimore at +900.

Buffalo is one NFL team that has seen some serious movement in its NFL futures odds. In the Super Bowl market the Bills have gone from an initial +1000 all the way to +1330. Buffalo did trade WR Stefon Diggs to Houston and the Bills didn’t have a first-round pick in the 2024 draft. Buffalo did get Florida State WR Keon Coleman with the first pick in the second round.

As a result of the Diggs trade, Houston saw its Super Bowl LIX odds shorten from +2180 to +1470 at BetUS.com. That puts the Texans among the top seven favorites.

Big Movers

In addition to Houston’s futures movement, two other teams saw their Super Bowl odds improve greatly. The Pittsburgh Steelers, who made the playoffs last year despite some quarterback issues, opened up at +6500 to win next season’s Lombardi Trophy. That all changed as a result of the team’s offseason moves and the draft.

The Steelers have addressed the quarterback position with the acquisitions of Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. Those two were in place prior to the draft and the Steelers selections addressed their biggest needs. They drafted G Troy Fautanu of Washington in the first round and C Zach Frazier out of West Virginia in the second. Those two will likely become Day 1 starters. They also picked up South Dakota State G Mason McCormick.

WR Roman Wilson will probably be the Steelers No. 2 guy and Payton Wilson will be Pittsburgh’s next great linebacker. As a result of the draft, the Steelers’ odds shortened to +4600 at BetOnline.ag.

There was similar movement for the Atlanta Falcons, but for much different reasons. The Falcons signed former Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins in the offseason. Cousins will lead a young and talented offense which has the likes of RB Bijan Robinson, WR Drake London, and TE Kyle Pitts. The addition of Cousins surely helped, but the speculation of Atlanta’s 2024 schedule was enough for oddsmakers to move Atlanta’s odds from +4000 pre-draft to +2800 after.

Offensive & Defensive Rookies of the Year

The NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year award is really Williams’ award to lose. He was penciled in as the favorite before the draft and now sits atop the board at +200. There is no question the Bears can run the ball. They finished second in rushing (141.1 ypg) last season. Continuing that success should help Williams and the Bears passing game.

Williams will have DJ Moore and Keenan Allen to go along with first-round pick Rome Odunze. There is also RB D’Andre Swift and a talented Bears offensive line. If things fall into place, Williams should lead this market from beginning to end.

WR Marvin Harrison (+600) and QB Jayden Daniels (+650) are the next two on the board. Both will have the opportunity for success, but their respective teams might not be as far along as Williams and Chicago.

On the defensive side of the ball, it figures to be a two-man race between two players that can make an immediate impact. Laiatu Latu was the first defensive player taken in the 2024 draft. He may not start right away since the Colts have Kwity Paye and Samson Ebukam at defensive end. That could open the door for Minnesota’s Dallas Turner.

Turner was taken two spots after Latu. Turner should have an immediate impact with the Vikings. He has already been penciled in as a starter. Both Turner and Latu are given +600 odds to become the NFL Defensive ROTY in 2024 at SportsBetting.ag.