2024 Kentucky Derby Odds & Preview

James Willis | April 30, 2024

As the sports calendar rolls into May, it means that the annual Run for the Roses is coming soon. The 150th running of the Kentucky Derby is set for Saturday, May 4, at the historic Churchill Downs in Louisville. The top names in horse racing will all be jockeying for one of the biggest prizes in the sport.

Last year’s Kentucky Derby was full of scratches and even horse deaths. That is something racing officials are hoping to avoid in 2024. Saturday’s race is currently on track to have a 20-horse field. None of those horses will have been trained by the legendary Bob Baffert.

Baffert, of course, was implicated in the Medina Spirit scandal of 2021. Churchill Downs officials extended Baffert’s ban through 2024, making him and any horses he has trained ineligible to run. Regardless, the field of 20 will make it difficult for bettors looking to capitalize on this year’s race.

Early Favorites

In looking for favorites to win the 2024 Kentucky Derby, bettors should look for horses with good top speed as well as the stamina and closing burst to win the 1.25-mile race. Fierceness is one such horse.

Fierceness opened as the favorite to win this year’s Kentucky Derby. Given +250 odds (BetUS.com), Fierceness will run out of the No. 17 gate. No horse has won this event in the last 94 years running out of the No. 17 gate. Could Fierceness become the first colt to win from that gate in 94 years?

Fierceness is trained by Todd Pletcher, the legend who has sent 64 horses to the Kentucky Derby. Fierceness will be ridden by John Velasquez who has won the Kentucky Derby three times in his career. The three-year-old doesn’t fit the mold of the typical Derby winner, but does have the speed necessary to outrun the competition.

Top Contenders

There are only two other horses currently given better than 10-1 odds to win the 2024 Kentucky Derby. Catching Freedom is listed at +800 (BetOnline.ag) and will run from the No. 4 gate. It takes stamina to win this longer Triple Crown event. White Catching Freedom doesn’t have the flat out speed of Fierceness, the colt is a true closer.

Catching Freedom will be ridden by Flavian Prat, who was the Kentucky Derby champion in 2019 after Maximum Security was disqualified. Prat has finished in the top three in five of his last six Kentucky Derby runs.

The top contender is Sierra Leone at +300 and it’s easy to see why. The three-year-old colt is the hottest horse in the sport over the past year. Sierra Leone is trained by Chad Brown, who is 0-for-7 in the Kentucky Derby so far. Brown’s horses have two Preakness wins, but have yet to win the Run for the Roses.

Sierra Leonne has won three of its last four races, including the Blue Grass Stakes and the Risen Star Stakes. Those two victories helped Sierra Leone and jockey Tyler Gaffalione move up the list of 2024 Kentucky Derby contenders.

Post Position & Kentucky Derby Wins

Horses that have started in Gate No. 5 have won more Kentucky Derby races than any other post position. Horses out of Gate No. 5 have won 10 times at Churchill Downs. Running out of Gate No. 8 and No. 10 has produced nine wins each. Gates No. 1 and No. 7 have won eight times.

Sierra Leone will run out of Gate No. 2. That gate has produced seven winners since the starting gate was introduced to the Derby in 1930. There is only one gate that has never produced a Kentucky Derby winner. That is Gate No. 17. The horse running out of Gate No. 17 on Saturday? Fierceness.

Searching for that Underdog

We saw an underdog rise to the top last year when Mage (+1500) raced to the front of the pack and surprised the field with a Kentucky Derby victory. Is there a horse in the field that could replicate that in 2024?

There are three horses in the field with 50-1 odds to win. West Saratoga, Society Man, and Grand Mo the First are all listed at +5000. The last time that big of a longshot won was in 2009 when Mine that Bird (+4960) took the title.

One longshot to watch is Dornoch who is listed at +2000 (SportsBetting.ag) to win. Dornoch is the only horse in the 2024 Kentucky Derby with a win over Sierra Leone.